A Western-Arab Visit to ‘Forgotten Syria’

Western and Arab envoys on Syria. Photo: Brigitte Curmi's Twitter account
Western and Arab envoys on Syria. Photo: Brigitte Curmi's Twitter account
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A Western-Arab Visit to ‘Forgotten Syria’

Western and Arab envoys on Syria. Photo: Brigitte Curmi's Twitter account
Western and Arab envoys on Syria. Photo: Brigitte Curmi's Twitter account

Ukraine was once again present at the closed meeting of Western and Arab envoys on Syria. But this time, the attendees discussed the means to deal with a politically “forgotten” Middle Eastern Arab state, mired in its economic crisis and geographical divisions, in light of the Russian-Western fiery clash over the land of an eastern European country and its sea and land neighborhoods.

In theory, the Paris meeting, which was called for by French Envoy Brigitte Curmi, was intended to match the positions of Arab and foreign countries, which are involved in varying degrees and with “different weapons” in Syria.

In fact, understanding the stances of these countries, as well as their public and implicit statements and slogans, was necessary, two months after the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, with Washington’s insistence on assuming a “leading role” in the Syrian file, and ahead of the international donors’ conference in Brussels on May 10, which was initially focused on raising funds for millions of Syrians, back when their crisis prevailed over the international agenda.

On the eve of the meeting, the attendees held bilateral and tripartite consultations, before convening a separate expanded session and another with the participation of UN envoy Geir Pedersen. Many discussions and ideas were said and reiterated in previous rounds by the participants themselves, or by their predecessors during the decade of the Syrian crisis.

What’s new, however, were some of the issues that imposed themselves on the agenda: The first shock was the tragedy of the Tadamon neighborhood massacre in southern Damascus, which was revealed by The Guardian. The newspaper published documented photos of the execution of dozens of civilians in this Syrian quarter in 2013. At the meeting, US envoy Ethan Goldrich and a number of his European counterparts stressed the importance of “accountability for crimes” and adherence to the Caesar Act approved by the US Congress.

The “proponents of normalization” with Damascus were also reminded of the importance to avoid “Arab normalization with the regime,” in addition to the Westerners’ reference to the role played by national courts in Europe in prosecuting “war criminals.”

The second case pertained to the Ukrainian war. Concern prevailed over the Western-Russian division there, which would impede the extension of the international mechanism for cross-border humanitarian aid in July.

The Russian side has indeed pointed to this matter. In fact, the US-Russian dialogue, which was launched after the summit of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden in Geneva in mid-June, and during which three sessions focused on the humanitarian file, was completely frozen after the Ukrainian war. What’s left is only an accord on the need to “prevent conflict” between the US and Russian armies between the east and west of the Euphrates.

In the Paris meeting, it was noticeable that Western countries “see the Syrian regime as an extension of Russia, especially after Damascus fully adopted Moscow’s position, and even amplified it.”

Some of these countries are looking for “means to hold Damascus accountable,” in the face of a contradictory and multi-sectarian Arab position.

In this regard, a number of Arab states are openly supportive of Moscow and its position in Ukraine, and may want to expedite normalization with Damascus or to circumvent sanctions to finance reconstruction.

Others expressed “hope that the Western-Russian polarization in Ukraine will not increase the suffering of the Syrians,” while major countries maintained their position that Damascus should meet “Arab and Syrian requirements.”

In any case, Ukraine has become an additional perspective for Arab and Western views on Syria.

The third issue was related to Pedersen’s proposal for a “step for step” approach, based on elements that include humanitarian aid, ceasefire, sanctions, early recovery, refugees, displaced people, and prisoners. Indeed, participants engaged in a detailed discussion about the efficacy of the proposal at the present time, amid the Russian-American division.

Moreover, questions were raised about the seriousness of Moscow and Damascus in agreeing to this proposal, especially in light of stances publicly expressed by the officials of the two countries. The Russian side wants to focus on the constitutional track, and rejects any shadows casting on its “accomplishment,” while Damascus refuses to engage in the new approach or any other, “with the presence of the American and Turkish occupations.”

The two sides are perhaps only interested in the funds that the “step for step” approach can provide through the clause of the “early recovery” support under Resolution 2585.

In general, with the lack of important initiatives by the major powers for the Greater Syria file, the meeting saw acceptance of the details and the continuation of collecting some factors for the “step for step” approach, without setting a specific timetable for this purpose. The participants also expressed support for the constitutional process.

Pedersen called for a meeting of the next round, to be held between May 28 and June 5, based on the mechanism adopted in the previous round.

On April 26, Pedersen sent out invitations to representatives of the government, the opposition and civil society, in which he said: “In implementation of my mandate, I invite you to the eighth session of the Constitutional Committee, led and owned by Syria, based on the same mechanism applied in the sixth and seventh sessions.”
He continued: “I am happy to reiterate that additional principles will be presented before delegations leave for Geneva, and that no less than 4 principles will be discussed during the eighth session.”

The Paris meeting was a Western-Arab visit to “forgotten Syria,” to say that it was “not forgotten.” However, the meeting revealed, once again, that Syria is an attachment to other files, and a captive of the moving or stagnant waters between Moscow and Washington.



Reconstruction Studies Begin in Lebanon, Costs Exceed $6 Billion

A man walks past near the rubble of a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon November 29, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
A man walks past near the rubble of a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon November 29, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
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Reconstruction Studies Begin in Lebanon, Costs Exceed $6 Billion

A man walks past near the rubble of a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon November 29, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
A man walks past near the rubble of a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon November 29, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

As Lebanese return to their ruined cities and villages after the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, the main question on their minds is: “When will reconstruction begin, and are the funds available, and if so, where will they come from?”

Unlike the aftermath of the 2006 war, which saw funds flow in automatically, the situation now is different.

The international conditions for reconstruction may be tougher, and Lebanon, already struggling with a financial and economic collapse since 2019, will not be able to contribute any funds due to the severity of the recent war.

Former MP Ali Darwish, a close ally of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, said a plan for reconstruction would likely be ready within a week.

The plan will identify the committees to assess damage, the funds for compensation, and whether the South Lebanon Council and Higher Relief Commission will be involved.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Darwish explained that the matter is being discussed with international partners, and more details will emerge soon.

He added that the process is unfolding in stages, beginning with the ceasefire, followed by army deployment, and eventually leading to reconstruction.

To reassure its supporters, many of whom have lost their homes and been displaced, Hezbollah promised before the ceasefire that funds were ready for reconstruction.

Sources close to the group say Iran has set aside $5 billion for the effort, with part of it already available to Hezbollah and the rest arriving soon.

Political analyst Dr. Qassem Qassir, familiar with Hezbollah’s operations, said a reconstruction fund would be created, involving Iran, Arab and Islamic countries, international partners, religious leaders, and Lebanese officials.

He added that preparatory work, including committee formations and studies, has already begun.

However, many affected people are hesitant to start rebuilding, wanting to ensure they will be reimbursed.

Some reports suggest that party-affiliated groups advised not making repairs until damage is properly documented by the relevant committees. Citizens were told to keep invoices so that those who can pay upfront will be reimbursed later.

Ahmad M, 40, from Tyre, told Asharq Al-Awsat he began repairing his damaged home, paying extra to speed up the process. The high costs of staying in a Beirut hotel have become unbearable, and he can no longer wait.

Economist Dr. Mahmoud Jebaii says that accurate estimates of reconstruction costs will depend on specialized committees assessing the damage. He estimates the cost of destruction at $6 billion and economic losses at $7 billion, bringing total losses from the 2024 war to around $13 billion, compared to $9 billion in 2006.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Jebaii explained that the 2024 destruction is much greater due to wider military operations across the south, Bekaa, and Beirut.

About 110,000 housing units were damaged, with 40,000 to 50,000 completely destroyed and 60,000 severely damaged. Additionally, 30 to 40 front-line villages were entirely destroyed.

Jebaii emphasized that Lebanon must create a clear plan for engaging the Arab and international communities, who prefer reconstruction to be managed through them.

This could involve an international conference followed by the creation of a committee to assess the damage and confirm the figures, after which financial support would be provided.

He added that Lebanon’s political system and ability to implement international decisions will be key to advancing reconstruction.