Strategic Political Challenges Facing the US in 2023

US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the G20 summit in Bali on November 14. (Reuters)
US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the G20 summit in Bali on November 14. (Reuters)
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Strategic Political Challenges Facing the US in 2023

US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the G20 summit in Bali on November 14. (Reuters)
US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the G20 summit in Bali on November 14. (Reuters)

Iran remains one of the United States’ most pressing national security challenges, even while much of the world’s attention in 2022 has been focused on Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine. Despite this enduring reality, the lack of a consistent American policy on Iran has only served to embolden the Iranian regime. As legislators look ahead to a new year and a new Congress, there is an opportunity to chart a new path forward.

The ever-changing US approach to Iran over the years has called into question our willingness to confront the regime. However, Iran supplying armed drones to Russia, coupled with protests against the Iranian regime, represents a potential “sea change” in American policy. It’s time the United States forge a more comprehensive Iran strategy that goes beyond a nuclear negotiation and encompasses all instruments of national power.

An effective Iran strategy must have clear diplomatic, economic, and military deterrence components, and must address all aspects of the regime’s bad conduct.

As many Americans go about their holiday plans, the Iranian regime is violently quashing protests inside its borders, plotting to kill former and current American officials both at home and abroad, making every effort to provide Lebanese Hezbollah with the means to destroy Israel, dramatically accelerating nuclear enrichment, and flooding the Ukrainian battlefield with armed drones. An effective US strategy must be scoped and resourced to address these problems and more.

On the economic front, Iran’s resistance economy must once again feel the full weight of the international community’s economic pressure. While the Biden Administration has announced additional sanctions against oil smugglers and Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, more must be done to enforce existing sanctions and close sanctions loopholes in coordination with our allies.

The US must also attack drone supply chains, to include components made in the United States and by our partners, and sanction those companies that fail to comply. The US Congress has so far failed to enact the Stop Iranian Drones Act, a powerful sanctions tool which would add Iran’s drone program to the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act. It is critical to demonstrate the political will to address this deficiency as soon as possible.

Military deterrence has been sorely lacking, largely stemming from efforts to keep nuclear negotiations on life support. With only minor exceptions, the Biden Administration has failed to respond to repeated attacks against Americans and our interests. Moving forward, Iranian leadership must understand that the United States and our partners have the capability and the will to respond forcefully to attacks, and that we will not distinguish between attacks from the regime or the proxies it supports.

While deterrence often plays out in Iraq or Syria, the Iranian regime must also understand its borders are no longer sacrosanct. The United States should reach agreement with like-minded partners on appropriate nuclear redlines that would garner an international response. Israel has a clear role to play here, and I’ve welcomed Israel’s participation in joint exercises tailored against Iran.

However, if we’re to achieve true integrated deterrence, the United States must also ensure our partners have the capability and equipment to contain the Iranian threat. The US must expedite arms sales and address critical capability gaps – to include a credible joint US-Israeli military option to take Iran’s nuclear program off the table. 

On the diplomatic front, the death of the nuclear deal and Iran’s rush to enrich uranium provide opportunities for diplomatic incentives and disincentives. Censures of the Iranian regime at International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meetings were a good start. As Iran continues to resist the IAEA’s legitimate oversight functions, the United States should hit the regime with more, stronger censures.

Additionally, Iran must become a renewed topic of discussion at the United Nations Security Council – to include invoking snapback of sanctions under UNSCR 2231. While I do not support the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), this snapback provision allows any original JCPOA signatory to “snap back” all prior resolutions on Iran by notifying the Security Council that Iran is not compliant with its commitments. Again, the United States and its allies must be on the same page as to what constitutes significant nuclear non-compliance and must advertise these red lines to the regime.

Finally, as protests enter their fourth month, the US government must better support the aspirations of the Iranian people. The American response thus far has been embarrassingly muted. The Biden Administration and international community must signal more full-throated support for the Iranian people who are dying on the streets as they march for freedom. Additionally, we must increase efforts to allow ordinary Iranians to access each other, the internet, and the outside world. These efforts must be paired with effective sanctions against Iranian censors and those who enable the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, and expand sanctions of human rights abusers.

Many of us in Washington have long advocated for a holistic approach to Iran that is more than a nuclear negotiation. It’s time to put the nuclear deal out of its misery and focus on the way ahead. I look forward to advancing these efforts in the next Congress.

*US Senator Jim Risch is a ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.



Israel PM again Warns Iran after Top Diplomat Talks of Revising Nuclear Doctrine

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to stop Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon, by military means if necessary - AFP
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to stop Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon, by military means if necessary - AFP
TT

Israel PM again Warns Iran after Top Diplomat Talks of Revising Nuclear Doctrine

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to stop Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon, by military means if necessary - AFP
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to stop Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon, by military means if necessary - AFP

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel would do "everything" to stop Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon after Iran's top diplomat warned it could end its ban on developing one if Western sanctions are reimposed.

The renewed war of words between the Middle East foes came as Iran prepares to hold key nuclear talks with European governments on Friday which have been overshadowed by their joining with Washington to have Tehran censured by the UN atomic watchdog.

"I will do everything to prevent it from becoming a nuclear (power), I will use all the resources that can be used," Netanyahu told Israeli broadcaster Channel 14 in an interview.
Israel is the region's sole, if undeclared, nuclear-armed state. It has long made preventing any rival from matching it its top defense priority.
Netanyahu said Tuesday that the ceasefire that went into effect in Lebanon the following day would allow Israel to focus on Iran. He did not elaborate on what action he envisaged.

Iran launched two missile barrages at Israel over the past year in retaliation for the killing of leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as an Iranian general.

Israel responded both times with limited attacks on Iran, most recently bombing several military sites on October 26.

Last week's chiding at the International Atomic Energy Agency prompted a defiant response from Tehran, but its officials have since signalled willingness to engage with others ahead of the return of US president-elect Donald Trump, whose last administration pursued a policy of "maximum pressure" against Iran.

- Current doctrine 'insufficient' -

Iran insists on its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, but according to the IAEA, it is the only non-nuclear-weapon state enriching uranium to 60 percent.

In an interview with The Guardian newspaper, published on the eve of Iran's talks with Britain, France and Germany, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that frustration in Tehran over unmet commitments, such as lifting sanctions, was fuelling debate over whether the country should alter its nuclear policy.

"We have no intention to go further than 60 percent for the time being, and this is our determination right now," he told the British daily.

But, he added, "there is this debate going on in Iran, and mostly among the elites... whether we should change our nuclear doctrine" as so far it has proven to be "insufficient in practice".

A 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and major powers aimed to give Iran relief from crippling Western sanctions in exchange for limiting its nuclear program to prevent it from developing a weapons capability.

Tehran has consistently denied any such ambition. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final authority in Iran's decision-making, has issued a religious decree, or fatwa, prohibiting atomic weapons.

Tehran's willingness to sit down with the three European governments so soon after the censure comes just weeks before Trump is set to return to the White House.

During his first term, Trump focused on reimposing heavy sanctions on Iran following his administration's unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 deal three years after it was agreed.

In retaliation for the US withdrawal, Tehran reduced its compliance with the deal, raising its uranium enrichment levels to 60 percent -- closer to the 90 percent required for a nuclear bomb.

- 'Frank exchange' -

Under the 2015 accord -- which will expire in October 2025 -- Iran's enrichment was capped at 3.67 percent.

Iranian diplomat Majid Takht-Ravanchi, who serves as the political deputy to Araghchi, is scheduled to represent Iran in Friday's talks.

On Thursday he and deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs Kazem Gharibabadi met with Enrique Mora, deputy secretary general of the European Union's foreign affairs arm.

Mora said on X that they held a "frank exchange... on Iran's military support to Russia that has to stop, the nuclear issue that needs a diplomatic solution, regional tensions (important to avoid further escalation from all sides) and human rights".

Last week, the 35-nation board of governors of the IAEA adopted a resolution proposed by Britain, France, Germany and the United States condemning Iran for its lack of cooperation on nuclear issues.

Iran described the move as "politically motivated" and in response announced the launch of "new advanced centrifuges" designed to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium.

For Tehran, the goal of the talks on Friday is to avoid a "double disaster" scenario, in which it would face renewed pressures from both Trump and European governments, according to political analyst Mostafa Shirmohammadi.

He noted that Iran's support among European governments had been eroded by allegations it offered military assistance for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Iran has denied these accusations and hopes to mend relations with Europe, while also maintaining a firm stance.