Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine at the fastest rate since the early days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of Greater London over the past month, analysts and war bloggers say.

The war is entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its most dangerous phase after Moscow's forces made some of their biggest territorial gains and the United States allowed Kyiv to strike back with US missiles.

"Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine," independent Russian news group Agentstvo said in a report.

The Russian army captured almost 235 sq km (91 sq miles) in Ukraine over the past week, a weekly record for 2024, it said.

Russian forces had taken 600 sq km (232 sq miles) in November, it added, citing data from DeepState, a group with close links to the Ukrainian army that studies combat footage and provides frontline maps.

Russia began advancing faster in eastern Ukraine in July just as Ukrainian forces carved out a sliver of its western region of Kursk. Since then, the Russian advance has accelerated, according to open source maps.

Russia's forces are moving into the town of Kurakhove, a stepping stone towards the logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, and have been exploiting the vulnerabilities of Kyiv troops along the frontline, analysts said.

"Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023," analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report.

The General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces said in its Monday update that 45 battles of varying intensity were raging along the Kurakhove part of the frontline that evening.

The Institute for the Study of War report and pro-Russian military bloggers say Russian troops are in Kurakhove. Deep State said on its Telegram messaging app on Monday that Russian forces are near Kurakhove.

"Russian forces' advances in southeastern Ukraine are largely the result of the discovery and tactical exploitation of vulnerabilities in Ukraine's lines," Institute analysts said in their report.

Russia says it will achieve all of its aims in Ukraine no matter what the West says or does.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly said peace cannot be established until all Russian forces are expelled and all territory captured by Moscow, including Crimea, is returned.

But outnumbered by Russian troops, the Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and provide equipment to new units.

Zelenskiy has said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin's main objectives were to occupy the entire Donbas, spanning the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and oust Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, parts of which they have controlled since August.



Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Names New Land Forces Chief, Says Changes Needed

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attends a joint press conference with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (not pictured), amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, November 19, 2024. (Reuters)
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attends a joint press conference with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (not pictured), amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, November 19, 2024. (Reuters)
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Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Names New Land Forces Chief, Says Changes Needed

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attends a joint press conference with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (not pictured), amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, November 19, 2024. (Reuters)
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attends a joint press conference with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (not pictured), amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, November 19, 2024. (Reuters)

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy replaced the commander of the military's land forces on Friday, putting Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi in charge, as Russia notches up gains in the east and Kyiv's troops face manpower shortages.

Zelenskiy said "internal changes" were needed as he announced the 42-year-old would replace Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, who took the helm of the land forces in a major shake-up in February 2024.

"The main task is to increase noticeably the combat efficiency of our army, ensure the quality of servicemen training, and introduce innovative approaches to people management in Ukraine's Armed Forces," Zelenskiy said.

"The Ukrainian army needs internal changes to achieve our state's goals in full," he said on Telegram after meeting his top military and government officials.

Drapatyi is well respected in the army and military analysts praised his appointment. Drapatyi took command of the Kharkiv front in May and managed to stop the Russian offensive in the northeast, stabilizing the front.

Zelenskiy also said that he appointed Colonel Oleh Apostol, commander of the 95th separate air-assault brigade, as a deputy to army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.

He praised both Drapatyi and Apostol, saying "they had proved their efficiency on the battlefield".

Ukraine is on the back foot on the battlefield as it fights a much bigger and better-equipped enemy 33 months after Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The Russian forces are steadily advancing in the eastern Donetsk region. Syrskyi, the army chief, said on Friday he would strengthen troops deployed on the eastern front with reserves, ammunition, and equipment as he visited two key Ukrainian-held sites in the Donetsk region.

Ukraine has also lost about 40% of the territory it captured in Russia's Kursk region in a surprise incursion in August, as Russian forces have mounted waves of counter-assaults.

The head of the land forces oversees mobilization efforts during the war.

Military analysts say Ukraine's military is experiencing manpower shortages, making it harder to rotate troops out of the more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) of frontline or to build up reserve forces.