Lebanon: Currency Drops, Central Bank Sets New Exchange Rate at Transfer Firms

 Lebanon's currency continued its downward spiral before the dollar on Thursday, reaching a new low amid financial turmoil in the crisis-hit country. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
MANAGEMENT
Lebanon's currency continued its downward spiral before the dollar on Thursday, reaching a new low amid financial turmoil in the crisis-hit country. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla) MANAGEMENT
TT

Lebanon: Currency Drops, Central Bank Sets New Exchange Rate at Transfer Firms

 Lebanon's currency continued its downward spiral before the dollar on Thursday, reaching a new low amid financial turmoil in the crisis-hit country. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
MANAGEMENT
Lebanon's currency continued its downward spiral before the dollar on Thursday, reaching a new low amid financial turmoil in the crisis-hit country. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla) MANAGEMENT

The Lebanese central bank set an exchange rate of 3,625 Lebanese pounds per dollar to be applied by money transfer companies on Friday, a central bank source said.

This came as the local currency hit a new low amid financial turmoil in the crisis-hit country compounded by the coronavirus outbreak.

“Prices may change every day and will be set the day before,” the central bank source said, adding that the rate was based on the price dollars were fetching at foreign exchange offices.

“In the event that there are major fluctuations during the day, the price may be set again during the same day,” the source added, Reuters reported.

It was not immediately clear if the rate announced on Friday would be applied by commercial banks for such withdrawals.

The currency crash came as hundreds of Lebanese crowded outside money transfer offices Thursday, the last day that authorities allowed dollars to be dispensed to customers following new Central Bank rules.

The new rules, detailed in a bank circular released this week, require banks to convert cash withdrawals from foreign currency bank accounts to the local currency, the Lebanese pound, at market rates determined daily by the bank.

However, hundreds of protesters took to the streets in Beirut and other cities to denounce the policies of the Central Bank, ignoring regulations for social distancing because of the virus.

Parliament speaker Nabih Berri also urged the government on Thursday to use its legal powers to halt the “dramatic collapse” of the country’s pound currency before it is “too late”.

The change is meant to ease demand on the dollar but has instead caused panic among the Lebanese.

In Lebanon, people have relied on a stable national currency that has been pegged to the dollar for nearly 30 years.

The tiny Mediterranean country of about 5 million people has a large diaspora that sends foreign currency home or relies on transfers from here to students abroad. Also, many Lebanese keep their savings in foreign currency, the Associated Press reported.

The Lebanese pound traded between 3,500 and 3,700 to the dollar on Thursday, a sharp jump amid general currency depreciation that began in March. It had been pegged to the dollar at 1,500 pounds since 1990, the end of the country’s civil war.

For her part, Maha Yahya, director of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said the new rules are an effective float of the currency but it is not yet clear how the banks will implement them.

“Practically they are admitting the market rate. The problem is when you do it on its own without a broader financial package, and not part of a larger financial and economic rescue package, you are basically triggering a rapid inflation,” Yahya said.

The dollar is expected to continue to rise “so everybody now is hedging their bets and waiting," Yahya warned.

Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, including unprecedented unemployment levels and a severe liquidity crunch. The crisis has been compounded by a nationwide general lockdown, in place for over a month, to combat the spread of coronavirus.

Prices of basic goods have soared— sugar for instance has gone up by nearly 67 percent. Consumer groups recorded a general 58% price increase on basic commodities since October.



US Consumers to Bargain Hunt in Annual ‘Black Friday’ Spree

 A family eats lunch near a store advertising a Black Friday sale at the Pentagon City Mall in Arlington, Virginia, on November 22, 2023. (AFP)
A family eats lunch near a store advertising a Black Friday sale at the Pentagon City Mall in Arlington, Virginia, on November 22, 2023. (AFP)
TT

US Consumers to Bargain Hunt in Annual ‘Black Friday’ Spree

 A family eats lunch near a store advertising a Black Friday sale at the Pentagon City Mall in Arlington, Virginia, on November 22, 2023. (AFP)
A family eats lunch near a store advertising a Black Friday sale at the Pentagon City Mall in Arlington, Virginia, on November 22, 2023. (AFP)

US shoppers are coming out in force this holiday season, but the festiveness is being tempered by inflationary pressures that have abated but not completely faded.

After the sticker shock during the latter stages of the pandemic, a familiar frustration has settled in towards consumer prices that remain broadly elevated even if they have stopped rising rapidly.

Americans are "ready to open their wallets this holiday season," said the Conference Board ahead of Black Friday -- the day after Thanksgiving, which this year, falls on November 28 -- that traditionally sees US stores kick off the Christmas shopping season with steep discounts.

"US consumers plan to spend more than last year, but inflation reduces how far their dollars can go."

In this environment, nobody expects to pay the full price for items.

"Holiday shoppers are likely to increase their budgets this year versus last year but remain selective and are looking for discounts," said a note from Morgan Stanley.

The investment bank's survey found that 35 percent planned to spend more this holiday season. But nearly two-thirds would skip a purchase if an item is not adequately discounted, meaning a price cut of more than 20 percent.

"It's gonna be a good year, but I don't think that growth is going to be spectacular because consumers are still under pressure," predicted Neil Saunders of GlobalData.

Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's two percent long-term target, rising in October to 2.6 percent on an annual basis from 2.4 percent in September. But that's significantly below the peak level of 9.1 percent in June 2022.

Other recent economic data has been solid. Unemployment remains low at 4.1 percent, while a preliminary GDP reading for the third quarter came in at 2.8 percent.

But Joe Biden's presidency coincided with about a 20 percent rise in consumer prices as Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns gave way to supply chain bottlenecks.

That inflation played a central role in the 2024 US presidential election, with Republican Donald Trump defeating Biden's appointed Democratic successor, Vice President Kamala Harris.

"There is still a perception among consumers that things are quite difficult," Saunders said. "So people are being quite cautious and careful in their spending."

- Tariff hit? -

How Trump's looming presidency will affect inflation remains to be seen. Industry groups have warned that tariffs favored by the Republican could reignite pricing pressures.

The National Retail Federation projected that a Trump tariff proposal floated during the campaign would dent US consumer budgets by as much as $78 billion annually.

But while tough potential trade actions are already preoccupying Washington trade groups, tariffs are not on consumer radars for the 2024 season, according to Saunders.

One challenge this year will be the shortness of the season.

Black Friday falls at the latest possible date on November 29, shortening the stretch between Turkey Day and Christmas on December 25.

But the impact of that dynamic on 2024 sales should not be overstated. Retailers in recent years have pulled the holiday shopping season ahead, with some vendors launching online "Black Friday" promotions as early as October.

Among the companies that have already begun discounts: the big-box chains Walmart and Target, electronics giant Best Buy and home-improvement retailer Home Depot.

Amazon officially launched "Black Friday Week" on Thursday.

NRF has projected holiday spending growth of between 2.5 and 3.5 percent in the 2024 season compared with the year-ago period, to as much as $989 billion over the two-month period.

Economists with the trade group have pointed to an easing of gasoline prices as a supportive factor.

Online sales are projected to grow as much as nine percent this season, extending a long-term trend. Black Friday itself has become a big occasion for online shopping, along with "Cyber Monday" three days later.

"Over time, we've moved from a period where it was just Black Friday, and maybe a little of the weekend, to it being a period of discounting that starts very early," said Saunders. "It's seasonal discounts."

There has been a diminishment of "doorbuster" sales that are known to draw hordes of waiting crowds, sometimes resulting in injury or worse.

Instead, increasing numbers of consumers are spreading out their purchases or opting to click through Black Friday promotions at home.