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Putin to Visit China to Deepen 'No Limits' Partnership with Xi

FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a signing ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023. Sputnik/Mikhail Tereshchenko/Pool via Reuters
FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a signing ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023. Sputnik/Mikhail Tereshchenko/Pool via Reuters
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Putin to Visit China to Deepen 'No Limits' Partnership with Xi

FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a signing ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023. Sputnik/Mikhail Tereshchenko/Pool via Reuters
FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a signing ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023. Sputnik/Mikhail Tereshchenko/Pool via Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Xi Jinping in China this week in a bid to deepen a partnership forged between the United States' two biggest strategic competitors. Putin will attend the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on Oct. 17-18, his first trip outside the former Soviet Union since the Hague-based International Criminal Court issued a warrant for him in March over the deportation of children from Ukraine.China and Russia declared a "no limits" partnership in February 2022 when Putin visited Beijing just days before he sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, triggering the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two. The United States casts China as its biggest competitor and Russia as its biggest nation-state threat while US President Joe Biden argues that this century will be defined by an existential contest between democracies and autocracies, Reuters reported."Over the past decade, Xi has built with Putin's Russia the most consequential undeclared alliance in the world," Graham Allison, professor at Harvard University and a former assistant secretary of defense under Bill Clinton, told Reuters."The US will have to come to grips with the inconvenient fact that a rapidly rising systemic rival and a revanchist one-dimensional superpower with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world are tightly aligned in opposing the USA." Biden has referred to Xi as a "dictator" and has said Putin is a "killer" and a leader who cannot remain in power. Beijing and Moscow have scolded Biden for those remarks. Since the Ukraine war, Putin has mostly stayed within the former Soviet Union, though he visited Iran last year for talks with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.'NO LIMITS'?Once the senior partner in the global Communist hierarchy, Russia three decades after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union is now considered a junior partner of a resurgent Communist China under Xi, China's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.Putin and Xi share a broad worldview, which sees the West as decadent and in decline just as China challenges US supremacy in everything from quantum computing and synthetic biology to espionage and hard military power.But Xi, who leads a $18 trillion economy, must balance close personal ties with Putin with the reality of dealing with the $27 trillion economy of the United States - still the world's strongest military power, and the richest.The United States has warned China against supplying Putin with weapons as Russia, a $2 trillion economy, battles Ukrainian forces backed by the United States and the European Union.Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said the optics of the Ukraine war made big public deals unlikely right now."Putin is definitely a guest of honor," Gabuev said, adding that military and nuclear cooperation would be discussed."At the same time I think China is not interested in signing any additional deals at least in public, because anything that can be portrayed as providing additional cash flow to Putin’s war chest and Putin’s war machine is not good at this point." Adding to the complexity of military cooperation is uncertainty over the fate of Defence Minister Li Shangfu, who has not been seen in public for more than six weeks. The heads of Russian energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft , Alexei Miller and Igor Sechin, will join Putin's retinue during his visit, sources familiar with the plans have told Reuters. Russia wants to secure a deal to sell more natural gas to China and plans to build the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, which would traverse Mongolia and have an annual capacity of 50 billion cubic meters (bcm).It is unclear if the gas deal - particularly the price and the cost of building it - will be agreed.

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Who Is Joseph Aoun, a Low-Profile Army Chief Who Is Now Lebanon’s President?

Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)
Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)
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Who Is Joseph Aoun, a Low-Profile Army Chief Who Is Now Lebanon’s President?

Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)
Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)

Lebanon’s new president and former army commander Joseph Aoun has maintained a low profile. Those who know him say he is no-nonsense, kind and averse to affiliating himself with any party or even expressing a political opinion — a rarity for someone in Lebanon’s fractured, transactional political system.

Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official who is now senior managing director of the TRENDS US consulting firm, often met Aoun while overseeing Washington's security cooperation in the Middle East. He called Aoun a "very sweet man, very compassionate, very warm" who avoided political discussions "like the plague."

"He really was viciously nonpartisan, did not have any interest in even delivering speeches or doing media," Saab said. "He wanted to take care of business, and his only order of business was commanding the Lebanese army."

That might make Aoun an odd fit as Lebanon’s president after being elected Thursday — ending a more than two-year vacuum in the post — but Saab said it could be a boon for the country where incoming leaders typically demand that certain plum positions go to supporters.

"He’s not going to ask for equities in politics that typically any other president would do," Saab said.

Aoun, 61, is from Aichiye, a Christian village in Jezzine province, southern Lebanon. He joined the army as a cadet in 1983, during Lebanon's 15-year civil war.

George Nader, a retired brigadier general who served alongside Aoun, recalled him as keeping cool under fire.

They fought together in the battle of Adma in 1990, a fierce confrontation between the Lebanese army and the Lebanese Forces militia during the war's final stages. Nader described it as one of the toughest battles of his career.

"The level of bloodshed was significant and I remember Joseph was steady and focused," he said.

Aoun commanded the Lebanese army's 9th infantry brigade before being appointed army chief in March 2017.

During his tenure as commander, he oversaw the army’s response to a series of crises, beginning with a battle to push out militants from the ISIS group and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, who were then operating in eastern Lebanon near the Syrian border. The army fought in coordination with the Hezbollah group.

HTS in its current iteration led a lightning offensive that toppled Syrian president Bashar al-Assad last month and has become the de facto ruling party in Syria.

The Lebanese army navigated other challenges, including responding to mass anti-government protests in 2019, the 2020 Beirut port explosion and the 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that came to a halt with a ceasefire agreement in November.

The Lebanese military largely stayed on the sidelines in the Israel-Hezbollah war, only returning fire a handful of times when Israeli strikes hit its positions. Dozens of soldiers were killed in airstrikes and shelling

The military also took a major hit when Lebanon's currency collapsed beginning in 2019, reducing the monthly salary of a soldier to the equivalent of less than $100.

In a rare political statement, Aoun openly criticized the country's leadership for its lack of action on the issue in a speech in June 2021.

"What are you waiting for? What do you plan to do? We have warned more than once of the dangers of the situation," he said. The United States and Qatar both at one point subsidized soldiers' salaries.

Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a nonprofit that aims to build stronger US-Lebanon ties, said he met Aoun about seven years ago when he was taking over command of the armed forces and "immediately found him to be the best of those that we had worked with."

He described Aoun as a "very direct guy, very honest" and a leader "who inspires loyalty by his hard work." Those attributes helped Aoun to prevent a flood of defections during the economic crisis, when many soldiers had to resort to working second jobs, Gabriel said.

On a personal level, Gabriel described Aoun as a humble and deeply religious man. Like all Lebanese presidents and army commanders under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, Aoun is a Maronite Christian.

"His religion really sets the groundwork for ... his value system and his morals," Gabriel said.

In Aoun's hometown, residents burst into celebrations after his election, setting off fireworks, dancing in the streets and handing out sweets.

"We are currently living in very difficult times, and he is the right person for this challenging period," said Claire Aoun, among those celebrating. "May God guide and support him, and may he rebuild this entire nation for us."

But Aoun's election was not without controversy or universally supported, even among fellow Christians.

One of the most influential Christian parties in the country, the Free Patriotic Movement of former President Michel Aoun — no relation to the current president — opposed his candidacy. And the Lebanese Forces party gave him their endorsement only the night before the election.

Some have argued that Joseph Aoun’s election violated the law. The Lebanese constitution bars a sitting army commander from being elected president, though the ban has been waived multiple times. Some legislators were not happy doing it again.

Some in Lebanon also perceived Aoun's election as the result of outside pressure — notably from the United States — and less the result of internal consensus. Hezbollah's war with Israel weakened the group, politically and militarily, and left Lebanon in need of international assistance for reconstruction, which analysts said paved the way for Aoun's election.

Saab, the analyst, said painting Aoun as a puppet of Washington is unfair, although he acknowledged there’s no such thing as a Lebanese president or prime minister completely independent of foreign influence.

"The entire country is heavily penetrated and vulnerable and at the mercy of international powers," Saab said. "But ... if you were going to compare him to the leadership of Hezbollah being fully subservient to Iranian interests, then no, he’s not that guy when it comes to the Americans."