Sadr’s Dominance Casts a Shadow over Upcoming Iraqi Provincial Elections

    
Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)
Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)
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Sadr’s Dominance Casts a Shadow over Upcoming Iraqi Provincial Elections

    
Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)
Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)

Political parties and blocs in Iraq are actively preparing for early engagement in the upcoming provincial elections, even before the official announcement. This initiative comes despite the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) decision to commence party registration in early July.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has reaffirmed his government's commitment to preparing for local elections by the end of 2023.

During a meeting with the Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General in Iraq, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Al-Sudani stated that “the government is actively engaged in the preparation process for the elections and has begun to provide all the necessary requirements for the success of the upcoming electoral events for provincial councils, while working to create the necessary conducive environment for them.”

Al-Sudani’s affirmations came after the Iraqi Parliament voted to set November 6 as the date for provincial elections, which will encompass 15 out of the 18 provinces, excluding the three provinces of the Kurdistan Region.

The premier’s affirmations served as the official announcement marking the start of genuine competition for these elections, which have been postponed for a decade.

However, the specter of the Sadrists heavily looms over these elections, amidst conflicting stances regarding their participation.

The leader of the Sadrist Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, has not yet announced his position regarding the possibility of his movement’s participation in the upcoming provincial elections.

This is despite a statement made by an unnamed Sadrist leader declaring the participation of the Sadrists with three electoral lists.

Al-Sadr’s office or political entity has neither denied nor confirmed the statement attributed to the anonymous leader.

The Sadrist Movement remains a dominant force, especially within the Shiite factions where al-Sadr is a major competitor in Baghdad, as well as in the central and southern provinces.

Civil forces, which are greatly influenced by al-Sadr’s presence or absence, have begun announcing their preparations for the upcoming elections, regardless of the Sadrists’ participation.

This indicates that elections will be highly contentious in terms of confrontation and participation, leading to a potential shift in alliance dynamics.



ISIS Flag Raised in Kirkuk Village

Iraqi security forces were surprised to find an ISIS flag raised at the gate of a school in a village in Kirkuk
Iraqi security forces were surprised to find an ISIS flag raised at the gate of a school in a village in Kirkuk
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ISIS Flag Raised in Kirkuk Village

Iraqi security forces were surprised to find an ISIS flag raised at the gate of a school in a village in Kirkuk
Iraqi security forces were surprised to find an ISIS flag raised at the gate of a school in a village in Kirkuk

Iraqi security forces on Friday encircled a village in Kirkuk province, located 250 kilometers north of Baghdad, after an ISIS flag was raised there.

The move comes amid statements from Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein about the resurgence of the terrorist group, which he said is reorganizing following the collapse of ISIS's Syrian stronghold.

In a phone conversation with UK Minister of State for the Middle East and North Africa, Hamish Falconer, Hussein warned that ISIS is rebuilding its strength, having seized significant weaponry left behind by the Syrian military’s collapse. This has allowed the group to expand its control in the region.

Hussein also raised alarms about the potential fallout from ISIS members escaping prisons and the situation at the Al-Hol camp, which holds the families of ISIS fighters in northeastern Syria, warning it could destabilize security in both Syria and Iraq.

He stressed the need for a political process in Syria that includes all components of society, and highlighted the importance of sustained international aid to the Syrian people.

Falconer expressed satisfaction with the outcomes of the Aqaba meetings, which included British participation, emphasizing the need for continued dialogue to monitor developments in Syria.

He also voiced concerns over the potential for armed clashes between ISIS remnants and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), stressing that Syria cannot afford more internal conflict.

ISIS Flag in Kirkuk

Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said Baghdad has presented a plan for Syria following the recent shifts in the region and remains prepared for all possibilities. On Friday, Iraqi security forces were surprised to find an ISIS flag raised at the gate of a school in a village in Kirkuk. The village, located in the Daqouq district south of Kirkuk, is believed to harbor ISIS remnants.

An Iraqi security source confirmed that the forces had surrounded the village of Khalid in Daqouq and launched a search operation for the perpetrators. Last week, a similar incident occurred in the Hawija district of Kirkuk.

Iraqi-Jordanian Coordination

Sudani also reiterated Iraq’s commitment to Syria’s territorial integrity and expressed readiness to support a comprehensive political process in the country without intervening in its internal affairs. In an interview with Iraqiya TV, Sudani stated that Iraq is concerned about the situation in Syria, particularly regarding the presence of armed groups and ISIS elements. He confirmed that joint operations with Jordan and the US-led coalition have already begun.

The Prime Minister called on Syria’s new leadership to ensure respect for the country’s diverse components and avoid excluding any group. He emphasized that Iraq, as a key member of the anti-ISIS coalition, remains committed to confronting any terrorist threat at its borders.

Sudani assured that Iraq faces no external threats or demands and is pursuing responsible dialogue based on mutual respect, shared interests, and securing its borders, which are now better fortified than ever.

The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has raised concerns over the fate of approximately 50,000 former ISIS fighters detained in camps in northern Syria. With the region in chaos, there are growing fears of these detention centers being breached, potentially paving the way for the group’s resurgence.