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Sadr’s Dominance Casts a Shadow over Upcoming Iraqi Provincial Elections

Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)
Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)
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Sadr’s Dominance Casts a Shadow over Upcoming Iraqi Provincial Elections

Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)
Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)

Political parties and blocs in Iraq are actively preparing for early engagement in the upcoming provincial elections, even before the official announcement. This initiative comes despite the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) decision to commence party registration in early July.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has reaffirmed his government's commitment to preparing for local elections by the end of 2023.

During a meeting with the Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General in Iraq, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Al-Sudani stated that “the government is actively engaged in the preparation process for the elections and has begun to provide all the necessary requirements for the success of the upcoming electoral events for provincial councils, while working to create the necessary conducive environment for them.”

Al-Sudani’s affirmations came after the Iraqi Parliament voted to set November 6 as the date for provincial elections, which will encompass 15 out of the 18 provinces, excluding the three provinces of the Kurdistan Region.

The premier’s affirmations served as the official announcement marking the start of genuine competition for these elections, which have been postponed for a decade.

However, the specter of the Sadrists heavily looms over these elections, amidst conflicting stances regarding their participation.

The leader of the Sadrist Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, has not yet announced his position regarding the possibility of his movement’s participation in the upcoming provincial elections.

This is despite a statement made by an unnamed Sadrist leader declaring the participation of the Sadrists with three electoral lists.

Al-Sadr’s office or political entity has neither denied nor confirmed the statement attributed to the anonymous leader.

The Sadrist Movement remains a dominant force, especially within the Shiite factions where al-Sadr is a major competitor in Baghdad, as well as in the central and southern provinces.

Civil forces, which are greatly influenced by al-Sadr’s presence or absence, have begun announcing their preparations for the upcoming elections, regardless of the Sadrists’ participation.

This indicates that elections will be highly contentious in terms of confrontation and participation, leading to a potential shift in alliance dynamics.

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Arab World

US, Türkiye Clash Over Support for Kurdish Forces in Syria as Erdogan Vows to Eliminate them

A demonstration in support of the SDF in Qamishli, Hasakah Province, opposing Turkish escalation (AFP).
A demonstration in support of the SDF in Qamishli, Hasakah Province, opposing Turkish escalation (AFP).
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US, Türkiye Clash Over Support for Kurdish Forces in Syria as Erdogan Vows to Eliminate them

A demonstration in support of the SDF in Qamishli, Hasakah Province, opposing Turkish escalation (AFP).
A demonstration in support of the SDF in Qamishli, Hasakah Province, opposing Turkish escalation (AFP).

Tensions between Türkiye and the United States over the handling of the Syrian Kurdish YPG (People’s Protection Units), the primary component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have intensified, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that “terrorist organizations” in Syria will no longer find support or collaborators.

Türkiye, along with allied Syrian National Army factions, has escalated attacks on SDF positions in Manbij and Kobani (Ayn al-Arab). This comes after Ankara rejected US claims about an extension of a ceasefire between Türkiye and the SDF. Turkish forces on Friday continued shelling around Tishrin Dam in Manbij’s countryside, prompting local calls for intervention to prevent further escalation and safeguard vital infrastructure.

Escalation in Manbij and Kobani

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Turkish shelling damaged parts of the Tishrin Dam, raising fears of severe environmental and humanitarian consequences if the escalation continues. The violence began with heavy clashes between Turkish-backed factions and the Manbij Military Council forces, involving medium and heavy weaponry. The fighting triggered significant civilian displacement toward safer areas.

Support for Syria’s New Leadership

Speaking to reporters on his return from Cairo, where he attended the D-8 Summit, Erdogan stated it was time to eliminate terrorist groups in Syria, particularly ISIS, the PKK, and their affiliates like the YPG/SDF, which he claims threaten Syria’s stability.

Erdogan emphasized Türkiye’s readiness to support Syria’s new leadership in combating terrorist organizations to establish a safe and stable Syria. He expressed confidence that no power would continue to work with such groups, particularly pointing at the US, which has long supported the YPG in the fight against ISIS.

He also mentioned his country’s plans to assist Syria’s new administration in building state institutions, drafting a new constitution, and engaging in discussions, noting that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan would visit Damascus soon to discuss the “new structure.”

Erdogan expressed hope for enhanced relations between Ankara and Damascus under the new leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Golani), the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

US-SDF Alliance

On the other hand, the US said that it remains committed to its alliance with the YPG as a key partner in combating ISIS. Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder confirmed there are no plans to withdraw US forces from Syria or end cooperation with the SDF. He disclosed that the US has approximately 2,000 troops in Syria, a number higher than previous estimates of 900.

Senior US diplomats met with members of Syria’s new leadership formed by HTS in the first direct and formal meeting between Washington and Syria’s new rulers after Assad’s fall.

US Presence in Syria

Henri Barkey, a political analyst, argued in The National Interest that a US withdrawal from Syria would be a significant mistake, potentially strengthening Iranian and Russian influence while increasing Türkiye’s regional sway.

As Turkish rhetoric about eliminating the YPG and PKK grows louder, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi indicated readiness to negotiate a ceasefire with Türkiye, including the withdrawal of foreign fighters from Syria if a truce is reached.

SDF-Türkiye Agreement

Abdi’s remarks to Reuters came after a Turkish Defense Ministry official denied any ceasefire agreement with the SDF or its US backers. The official dismissed recent US statements as a “slip of the tongue,” asserting Türkiye would not negotiate with terrorist organizations.

The official stressed that the threats from northern Syria persist, and Türkiye will continue its preparations and measures until the YPG disarms and foreign fighters leave Syria. He expressed confidence that Türkiye-backed factions would eliminate the YPG presence in Syria.

Western Concerns

Western allies, including Germany, have expressed concern over Türkiye’s actions in northern Syria. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, speaking before talks with her Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan, urged Ankara to contribute to Syria’s stability and protect minorities.

Baerbock highlighted fears of a large Turkish offensive in Kobani and warned that peace in Syria remains elusive, with the country’s future hanging by a thread.