Report: Ukraine Likely Behind Attacks on RSF in Sudan for Receiving Assistance from Wagner

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (AP)
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (AP)
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Report: Ukraine Likely Behind Attacks on RSF in Sudan for Receiving Assistance from Wagner

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (AP)
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (AP)

Ukrainian special services were likely behind a series of recent attacks on the Wagner-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) near Sudan’s capital, CNN reported on Wednesday.

The attacks raise the prospect that the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spread far from the frontlines.

Speaking to CNN, a Ukrainian military source described the operation as the work of a “non-Sudanese military.” Pressed on whether Kyiv was behind the attacks, the source would only say that “Ukrainian special services were likely responsible.”

The operation involved a series of attacks on the RSF paramilitary group, which is believed to be receiving assistance from Wagner, the Russian mercenary group, in its fight against the Sudanese army for control of the country.

CNN said it was unable to independently confirm Ukraine’s involvement in the series of strikes. But video footage obtained by CNN pointed to the Ukrainian-style drone attacks in Omdurman and other cities.

Experts also said the tactics used – namely the pattern of drones swooping directly into their target – were highly unusual in Sudan and the wider African region.

CNN added that the videos showed that two commercially available drones widely used by Ukrainians were involved in at least eight of the strikes, with Ukrainian text seen on the drone controller.

The two drones are known as the First-person view (FPV) and the DJI MAVIC 3.

The DJI MAVIC 3 drone has a maximum flight distance of 30 kilometers, a video transmission range of 15 kilometers and 46 minutes of flying time, which would indicate that the pilot would have been operating the drone inside, or very close to, the city of Omdurman.

A high-level Sudanese military source said he had “no knowledge of a Ukrainian operation in Sudan” and did not believe it was true.

The powerful Russian mercenary group has played a public and pivotal role in Moscow’s foreign military campaigns, namely in Ukraine, and has repeatedly been accused of committing atrocities.

In Africa, it has helped to prop up Moscow’s growing influence and seizing of resources.

The Wagner Group first appeared in Sudan in 2017 after former President Omar Bashir's visit to Moscow, where he asked for security and military assistance from Russian President Vladimir Putin, in exchange for providing Russia a naval military base in Port Sudan.

At the time, the Meroe Gold company was founded to supervise the extraction of gold from Sudan’s mine. The company was part of the empire of the mercenary group’s late leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who consolidated control over Wagner’s activities in Africa.

Several sides accuse the Wagner group of building a close relationship with RSF paramilitary fighters and their leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – widely known as Hemedti.

Five months after the war broke out in Sudan between the army and the RSF paramilitary group, in mid-April, neither side appeared close to a decisive military victory. Meanwhile, the humanitarian suffering of the majority of Sudanese continues and threatens to consume the entire country.



Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
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Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)

A comparison of the current human and material losses from the ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict with those from the July 2006 war shows that current losses have doubled.

Experts warn that the reconstruction funds and aid pledged to Lebanon 18 years ago may have limited impact once the war ends.

Total Losses

Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher from Information International, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the death toll has risen from 900 in 2006 to 2,865 in the current conflict (as of October 31, 2024), with the number increasing daily. The number of wounded was 4,000 in 2006, but it has now exceeded 13,047.

In 2006, 600,000 people were displaced, while today that number has surpassed 1.2 million. Of these, 189,174 are in shelters. A total of 358,133 Syrians and 172,604 Lebanese have fled to Syria, and 120,000 have sought refuge in other countries.

Lebanese Economy and Trade Minister Amin Salam estimated that Lebanon’s total economic losses from the current conflict have reached $20 billion. However, economic associations report direct losses between $10 billion and $12 billion, covering damage to key sectors, homes, buildings, and infrastructure.

These figures align with estimates from Shamseddine, who believes direct and indirect losses are around $10 billion.

Of this, $4 billion occurred from October 8, 2023, to September 17, 2024 (when the conflict was mostly limited to the south), and $7 billion from September 17 to October 31, 2024, after Israel expanded the war. For comparison, losses during the 2006 war totaled $5.3 billion.

In 2006, infrastructure damage was valued at $900 million, higher than the current war's $570 million in infrastructure losses.

Housing losses in 2006 totaled $2.2 billion, while they have now surpassed $4.26 billion. Mohammad Shamseddine points out that commercial losses were similar in both conflicts, at $4.7 million.

Agricultural and environmental losses in 2006 were $450 million, but now exceed $900 million. Indirect economic damages were $1.2 billion in 2006, while they have now surpassed $3.38 billion.

One notable difference is the number of airstrikes: from October 8, 2023, to October 31, 2024, there were 11,647, compared to just 3,670 during the 33-day 2006 war.