Israel Presses Gaza Hospital Raid

In this image taken from a video released by the Israeli forces on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2023, Israeli soldiers walk in the area of Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City. (Israeli army via AP)
In this image taken from a video released by the Israeli forces on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2023, Israeli soldiers walk in the area of Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City. (Israeli army via AP)
TT

Israel Presses Gaza Hospital Raid

In this image taken from a video released by the Israeli forces on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2023, Israeli soldiers walk in the area of Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City. (Israeli army via AP)
In this image taken from a video released by the Israeli forces on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2023, Israeli soldiers walk in the area of Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City. (Israeli army via AP)

Israel renewed its operation at Gaza's largest hospital Thursday, targeting what it maintains is a Hamas command center concealed in a complex sheltering more than 2,000 civilians.

"Tonight we conducted a targeted operation into Shifa hospital. We continue to move forward," Major General Yaron Finkelman, the head of Israeli military operations in Gaza, said in a social media post.

Gaza's health ministry, which is controlled by Hamas, said Thursday that Israeli bulldozers had "destroyed parts of the southern entrance" of the hospital.

Both Israel and its top ally the United States say Hamas have a command center below the Al-Shifa complex, which has become a focal point in the 40-day-old war.

The Palestinian group and directors at the hospital have denied the charge.

Before Israeli forces first stormed the hospital complex on Wednesday, UN agencies estimated that 2,300 patients, staff and displaced civilians were sheltering at Al-Shifa.

"The protection of newborns, patients, medical staff and all civilians must override all other concerns," UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths said. "Hospitals are not battlegrounds."

But Israel's army claimed the initial raid had uncovered military equipment, weapons and what spokesman Daniel Hagari described as "an operational headquarters with comms equipment."

A journalist in contact with AFP, trapped inside Al-Shifa, said that Israeli soldiers, some wearing face masks, shot in the air and ordered young men to surrender when they first burst into the facility.

About 1,000 male Palestinians, hands above their heads, were in the courtyard, some of them stripped naked by Israeli soldiers checking them for weapons or explosives, the journalist said.

US President Joe Biden on Thursday said he had told Israel to be "incredibly careful" in the Al-Shifa operation, but insisted Hamas had placed its "headquarters, weapons, materiel" at the hospital.

Witnesses have described conditions inside the hospital as horrific, with medical procedures performed without anesthetic, families with scant food or water living in corridors, and the stench of decomposing corpses filling the air.

'Urgent' pauses

Israel launched its Gaza offensive in retaliation for Hamas's brutal October 7 attacks, which killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians.

With Hamas-controlled authorities claiming the death toll from the offensive has now topped 11,500, including thousands of children, calls for a truce are mounting.

The UN Security Council on Wednesday set aside deep divisions over the conflict and passed a resolution calling for "urgent and extended humanitarian pauses" in fighting.

The resolution -- which passed thanks to abstentions from the United States, Britain and Russia -- called on Hamas and Israel to protect civilians, "especially children."

The situation in Gaza's other hospitals is also dire, with the World Health Organization saying 22 of 36 are not functional due to a lack of generator fuel, damage or combat.

Jordan's government said an "Israeli bombing" close to its field hospital in north Gaza had injured seven staff.

Amman's foreign ministry said it would investigate and "take the necessary legal and political steps against this heinous crime".

- Home front -

Israel has agreed to temporary localized pauses in fighting but has rejected international calls for a broader ceasefire.
Polls in Israel show widespread public support for military action against Hamas following the October 7 attacks -- the worst in the country's history.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday boasted there was no safe place for the Hamas militants and "no place in Gaza" the army would not reach.

"They told us we wouldn't reach the outskirts of Gaza City and we did, they told us we wouldn't enter Al-Shifa and we did," he said.

But Netanyahu, who has led Israel on-and-off for 16 years, is under intense domestic pressure to account for political and security failings that may have led to the worst attack in his country's history.

Protesters have taken to the streets demanding more be done to release the estimated 240 hostages taken by Hamas on October 7.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Biden said he was "mildly hopeful" there would be a deal to free the hostages.

In Israel, once the war in Gaza has concluded, a political reckoning is expected.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid on Wednesday called for that reckoning to come even sooner, demanding that Netanyahu step down.

"Netanyahu should leave immediately," he told Israel's N12 channel. "We need change, Netanyahu cannot remain prime minister."

"We cannot allow ourselves to carry out a long campaign under a Prime Minister who has lost the people's trust."



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
TT

Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”