Israeli Intelligence Predicted Hamas Attack, Netanyahu Ignored Warning

The destruction left by the Israeli airstrikes on the city of Gaza on Nov. 8. (AFP)
The destruction left by the Israeli airstrikes on the city of Gaza on Nov. 8. (AFP)
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Israeli Intelligence Predicted Hamas Attack, Netanyahu Ignored Warning

The destruction left by the Israeli airstrikes on the city of Gaza on Nov. 8. (AFP)
The destruction left by the Israeli airstrikes on the city of Gaza on Nov. 8. (AFP)

Two documents surfaced in Tel Aviv on Tuesday, revealing that the research division of the Israeli military intelligence, known as Aman, had predicted an impending attack by either Hamas or Hezbollah, or both, in 2023.

A warning about this was communicated to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, it seems that Netanyahu paid little attention and took no action to alter his policy that encourages Palestinian movements or the Lebanon-based Hezbollah to plan attacks.

The head of the research division at Aman personally warned Netanyahu in letters sent to him in March and July that the sociopolitical crisis that rocked Israel was encouraging Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas to risk action against Israel, even simultaneously.

Brigadier General Amit Sa’ar wrote to Netanyahu on March 19, a week before the first attempt to confirm the judicial overhaul legislation, and the attempted dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and again on July 16, a week before the Knesset vote on repealing the “reasonableness standard”.

He attached raw intelligence reports to each of the letters, which were published by the Haaretz daily. The reports contained a brief analysis warning of an impending danger of military escalation.

The first letter was sent with the heading, “The view from over there – how is Israel perceived in the [regional] system?” Sa’ar noted that “all actors in the systems indicate that Israel is in a blistering, unprecedented crisis threatening its cohesion and weakening it for our main enemies, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.”

“This weakness is an expression of a process ending in the collapse of Israel, and the current situation is an opportunity to accelerate and deepen its distress.”

Sa’ar clarified that “this analysis is not an interpretive view of reality, but the basis for a situation assessment by leadership figures, intelligence, and communications systems. It is already leading to changes in decision-making and risk-taking of various actors, who analyze and deduce implications from Israel’s internal condition.”



Israeli Commandos Kidnap Hezbollah ‘Naval Official’ in Lebanon’s Batroun

Amhaz's ID card at the Maritime Sciences and Technology Institute. (Telegram)
Amhaz's ID card at the Maritime Sciences and Technology Institute. (Telegram)
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Israeli Commandos Kidnap Hezbollah ‘Naval Official’ in Lebanon’s Batroun

Amhaz's ID card at the Maritime Sciences and Technology Institute. (Telegram)
Amhaz's ID card at the Maritime Sciences and Technology Institute. (Telegram)

Israeli marine commandos kidnapped a Lebanese citizen in a landing operation in the Batroun region north of Beirut, a Lebanese security source told Asharq Al-Awsat on Saturday.

The source said the operation took place at dawn on Friday and targeted Imad Fadel Amhaz, a Hezbollah member. The source did not confirm or deny whether he was an official in the Iran-backed party’s naval unit.

The source said the area where the operation happened had witnessed Israeli activity with Lebanese authorities suspecting that it was a meeting point for Israelis and their agents in Lebanon before the eruption of the war.

Speaking to Lebanon's Al-Jadeed TV, caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport Ali Hamie declined to go into details or answer questions about whether it was thought to be an Israeli operation.

Three Lebanese judicial officials told AP an investigation is looking into the man is linked to Hezbollah or working for an Israeli spy agency and an Israeli force came to rescue him.

The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were unauthorized to share details about the incident or the ongoing investigation.

Israel’s military said it was looking into local media reports that said its forces captured a senior member of Hezbollah’s naval force during the operation. Israel has carried out in the past commando operations deep inside Lebanon to kidnap or kill Hezbollah and Palestinian officials.

Hamie told Al-Jadeed the man was a captain of civilian ships. He graduated in 2022 and in late September joined the Batroun's Maritime Sciences and Technology Institute for additional courses. Hamie said that the man lived roughly 300 meters (980 feet) from the institute.

Hamie's remarks came shortly after two Lebanese journalists posted a video on social media showing what appeared to be about 20 armed men taking away a man from in front a house, his face covered with his shirt.

Kandice Ardiel, a spokesperson for the UN peacekeeping force deployed in south Lebanon, denied allegations by some local journalists who said that the peacekeepers helped the landing force in the operation. The UN mission, known as UNIFIL, has a maritime force that monitors the coast.

"Disinformation and false rumors are irresponsible and put peacekeepers at risk,” Ardiel said.