Iraq Sees Risk of Regional Conflict if Gaza War Resumes 

Mourners carry the coffins of Iraq's Kataeb Hezbollah fighters who were killed by US airstrike in Jurf al-Sakhar, south of Baghdad during a funeral in Baghdad, Iraq November 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Mourners carry the coffins of Iraq's Kataeb Hezbollah fighters who were killed by US airstrike in Jurf al-Sakhar, south of Baghdad during a funeral in Baghdad, Iraq November 22, 2023. (Reuters)
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Iraq Sees Risk of Regional Conflict if Gaza War Resumes 

Mourners carry the coffins of Iraq's Kataeb Hezbollah fighters who were killed by US airstrike in Jurf al-Sakhar, south of Baghdad during a funeral in Baghdad, Iraq November 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Mourners carry the coffins of Iraq's Kataeb Hezbollah fighters who were killed by US airstrike in Jurf al-Sakhar, south of Baghdad during a funeral in Baghdad, Iraq November 22, 2023. (Reuters)

Iraq sees a risk of regional conflict if the current truce in Gaza is not turned into a permanent ceasefire, the Iraqi prime minister's foreign affairs adviser said, as mediators sought an extension of the temporary four-day Israel-Hamas truce.

Israel's devastating bombardment of Gaza in response to Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel has drawn in Iran-aligned armed groups in the region including Lebanese Hezbollah and several Iraqi factions, who have mounted near-daily attacks on Israeli and US forces.

But there have been no reports of attacks on US forces in Iraq or Syria since Israel and Hamas began a four-day truce last week that was set to expire on Monday, compared to over 70 in the weeks prior.

Some of the main Iraqi armed factions behind the recent attacks, including Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada and Kataeb Hezbollah, have announced they will abide by the Gaza ceasefire but indicated they would resume attacks if it ends.

They have also said in statements that they still seek the eventual ouster of US forces in Iraq. There are around 2,500 US troops on a mission the US says is to advise and assist Iraqi forces battling remnants of ISIS.

"The entire region is on the verge of a devastating conflict that may include everyone, and the extent of its expansion or how to control and stop it is not known," said Farhad Alaadin, foreign affairs adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

"For this reason, we see any ceasefire in the conflict as beneficial and important at this stage for the people of Palestine and Gaza first and for all countries in the region, including Iraq," he told Reuters.

European Union Ambassador to Iraq Thomas Seiler said in a social media post that he hopes Iraqi factions "continue with their cessation of attacks."

Two sets of US strikes in Iraq last week killed 10 members of Kataeb Hezbollah, according to posts by the group on social media, a move condemned by the Iraqi government as escalatory and a violation of sovereignty.

Kataeb Hezbollah is part of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a group of mostly Shiite armed groups formed to fight ISIS in 2014 that became an official security agency under the command of the prime minister.

While technically part of the state, some of the PMF's most powerful Iran-backed factions often act outside the chain of command. Sudani has said attacks by armed groups on foreign forces in Iraq were unlawful and went against the country's national interest.



Iraq Frustrated by Iran’s Reluctance to Rein in Militias

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
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Iraq Frustrated by Iran’s Reluctance to Rein in Militias

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)

A senior government official said Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has warned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the “risks to Iraq” from the growing conflict between Israel and Iran.

The official added that Iran is using “deception” when asked to distance its allied militias from the war.

Political and government figures are increasingly worried that Iraq could be hit, after two Israeli soldiers were killed in a drone strike on the Golan Heights early Friday.

Speaking anonymously to Asharq Al-Awsat, the official said al-Sudani is taking steps to keep Iraq out of the conflict.

These efforts include ramping up “political mediation” to persuade militias not to involve Iraq. The prime minister “informed Coordination Framework leaders of the risks” and urged them to “act quickly.”

The official also warned that an attack is still possible, saying intelligence shows the Iraqi militias launched the strike from outside Iraq, using weapons that came from Iraqi territory.

Al-Sudani’s Mediation Efforts

The Iraqi premier has chosen mediators, approved by Iran, to negotiate with militias about the conflict and conditions for de-escalation. These three individuals have previously acted as mediators in past crises.

Last week, Asharq Al-Awsat reported that al-Sudani asked three key Shiite figures to intervene and prevent militias from getting involved in the war between Hezbollah and Israel, after reports surfaced that Israel had identified 35 Iraqi targets.

Sources confirmed that Ammar al-Hakim is among the mediators, along with two other influential Shiite leaders whose names haven’t been disclosed.

However, two Iraqi militias—likely the al-Nujaba Movement led by Akram al-Kaabi and Kataib Hezbollah led by Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi—have refused to cooperate and continue launching rocket attacks on Israel.

The Iraqi official admitted that some militias are “stubborn,” but stressed that al-Sudani knows Iraq is “at the center of the storm.”

He reportedly told leaders of the Coordination Framework, “Iraq cannot avoid a military strike if it happens, so we must stay out of the war to protect the country.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a Friday sermon, stated that “Iran’s allies in the region won’t back down,” increasing concerns that Iraqi militias tied to Iran will continue attacking Israel.

Iraqi sources also reported that the Coordination Framework has reviewed an “intelligence report” on dozens of Iraqi targets that Israel might strike or assassinate.

Government Efforts to Prevent Escalation

Al-Sudani has blocked the flow of Iraqi funds into conflict zones, unlike previous leaders, according to the official.

He has worked closely with the US and its Treasury Department to strictly monitor financial movements, often insisting that Iran uses official channels to claim its dues from Iraq.

The official also said global auditing firms are now helping Iraq’s central bank oversee financial transactions, shutting down all previous routes for illicit money flows.

Since the Gaza war began on October 7, 2023, the US told Iraq it pressured Israel not to strike Iraq, as long as Iraq stays out of the conflict, the official added.

The US doesn’t oppose Iraq’s stance of condemning Israel, supporting Lebanon and Palestine, and sending aid.

But it “won’t accept any financial or military support to militias.”

Regarding Iran’s role, the official said Tehran claims militias act independently, dodging responsibility for reining them in.