Houthi Drone Boat Detonates in Red Sea a Day After US Warning 

A container ship crosses an oil platform at the Gulf of Suez towards the Red Sea before entering the Suez Canal, outside of Cairo, Egypt September 1, 2020. Picture taken September 1, 2020. (Reuters)
A container ship crosses an oil platform at the Gulf of Suez towards the Red Sea before entering the Suez Canal, outside of Cairo, Egypt September 1, 2020. Picture taken September 1, 2020. (Reuters)
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Houthi Drone Boat Detonates in Red Sea a Day After US Warning 

A container ship crosses an oil platform at the Gulf of Suez towards the Red Sea before entering the Suez Canal, outside of Cairo, Egypt September 1, 2020. Picture taken September 1, 2020. (Reuters)
A container ship crosses an oil platform at the Gulf of Suez towards the Red Sea before entering the Suez Canal, outside of Cairo, Egypt September 1, 2020. Picture taken September 1, 2020. (Reuters)

A Houthi drone boat packed with explosives detonated in the Red Sea on Thursday, but failed to cause any damage or casualties, the US Navy said, as the Iran-backed militias in Yemen continued their attacks in defiance of international calls to stop.

The latest attack came one day after 12 countries including the US Britain and Japan issued a joint statement cautioning the Houthis of unspecified "consequences" unless it halts its attacks, in what one US official on Wednesday suggested was a final warning.

The Houthis have launched wave after wave of exploding drones and missiles at commercial vessels since Nov. 19, trying to inflict a cost in what they say is a protest against Israel's military operations in Gaza.

Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, who leads US Naval forces in the Middle East, told reporters on Thursday that the Houthi exploding boat drove out about 50 miles (80 km) into the Red Sea and then detonated in dense shipping lanes.

"It came within a couple of miles of ships operating in the area - merchant ships and US Navy ships - and we all watched as it exploded," Cooper told reporters, adding the target of the attack was not clear.

Cooper said there have now been 25 attacks by the Houthis against merchant vessels transiting the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and added "there are no signs that their irresponsible behavior is abating."

The United States and other countries last month launched Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect civilian vessels, which Cooper said now included contributions from 22 countries. So far, Cooper said US warships and US partners have shot down two cruise missiles, six anti-ship ballistic missiles and 11 drones.

Asked whether Operation Prosperity Guardian might target Houthi positions with strikes to prevent them from attacking ships, Cooper said that the 22-nation coalition was purely defensive in nature.

Security Council

Members of the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Wednesday to address the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

"There have been further alarming developments in the Red Sea," observed Khaled Khiari, Assistant Secretary-General for Middle East, Asia and the Pacific in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations.

Continued Houthi threats to maritime navigation — coupled with the risk of further military escalation — could potentially impact millions in Yemen, the region and the world, he warned.

"No cause or grievance can justify continuation of these attacks against the freedom of navigation," he underscored, calling on all parties to de-escalate tensions to return traffic through the Red Sea to normal and avoid dragging Yemen into regional conflagration.

Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), underlined the importance of ensuring the safety of seafarers, the freedom of navigation and the stability of supply chains.

The shipping lane through the Red Sea accounts for 15 percent of global trade, and approximately 18 shipping companies have already decided to reroute their vessels around South Africa to reduce risks, he added.

He noted that this requires 10 additional days of travel, resulting in higher freight rates and a negative impact on trade.

US deputy ambassador Christopher Lu said the Houthis have carried out more than 20 attacks since Nov. 19 -- and despite losing 10 fighters in a confrontation with US forces after trying unsuccessfully to board a cargo ship on Sunday, the militias announced Wednesday morning they had targeted another container ship.

He stressed to the council that the Houthis have been able to carry out the attacks because Iran has supplied them with money and advanced weapons systems including drones, land attack cruise missiles and ballistic missiles – in violation of UN sanctions.

"We also know that Iran has been deeply involved in planning operations against commercial vessels in the Red Sea," Lu remarked.

He stressed that the United States isn’t seeking a confrontation with Iran, but Tehran has a choice.

"It can continue its current course," Lu said, "or it can withhold its support without which the Houthis would struggle to effectively track and strike commercial vessels navigating shipping lanes through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden."

Lu warned that the Houthi attacks "pose grave implications for maritime security, international shipping and commerce" and it’s vital that the Security Council speak out now on the need to uphold international law and the right to freedom of navigation.

Draft resolution

A US draft resolution circulated to council members after the open meeting would condemn and demand an immediate halt to the Houthi attacks and recognize the right of any country to defend their merchant and naval vessels in accordance with international law.

Without mentioning Iran, the draft would also condemn "the provision of arms and related materiel of all types to the Houthis" in violation of UN resolutions. It would also call for all countries to implement the arms embargo on the Houthis and recall that the UN panel of experts monitoring sanctions "has found many Houthi weapons to be of Iranian origin."

The US draft would underscore "the need to avoid further escalation of the situation."

There was near unanimous condemnation of the Houthi attacks in speeches Wednesday by the 15 council members, and many calls for the militias to release the Galaxy Leader, a Japanese-operated cargo ship with links to an Israeli company that it seized on Nov. 19 along with its crew.

Russia

Russia’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia called on Houthi leaders to implement that statement and halt attacks, but he stressed that they must be seen as a response to the violence in Gaza "where Israel’s brutal operation has continued for three months now," leading to escalating attacks in the West Bank and along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Russia sees two scenarios for the current Red Sea situation, he remarked.

The favorable one would be for the Security Council to redouble efforts to end the Yemen war and the violence in Gaza, Nebenzia said.

The "catastrophic" scenario is to escalate the use of force in the Red Sea — which he said the US and its allies are calling on the council to do — which risks derailing a settlement of the Yemen conflict and would create conditions "for igniting a new major conflict around at least the Arabian Peninsula" and a wider regional conflict.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”