Cautious Optimism Surrounds 'Draft Agreement' Merging Israel, Hamas Demands

Al-Qassam Brigades fighters accompany two prisoners during the prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel last November (AFP)
Al-Qassam Brigades fighters accompany two prisoners during the prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel last November (AFP)
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Cautious Optimism Surrounds 'Draft Agreement' Merging Israel, Hamas Demands

Al-Qassam Brigades fighters accompany two prisoners during the prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel last November (AFP)
Al-Qassam Brigades fighters accompany two prisoners during the prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel last November (AFP)

Negotiators developed a written draft agreement merging the proposals offered by Israel and Hamas to release over 100 detainees in the Gaza Strip, according to the New York Times.

The newspaper stated that the written draft agreement will form a framework for discussion at the Paris meeting and that it may lead to the conclusion of an actual agreement within the next two weeks, which will shift the conflict.

NYT reported that negotiators were "cautiously optimistic" that a final accord was within reach, noting that there were still important disagreements to be worked out, according to the US officials who insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive talks.

Earlier today, the Israeli Broadcasting Authority quoted Israeli officials as saying that the Hamas movement is taking a tough stance in negotiations to exchange prisoners and detainees with Israel.

According to the unnamed Israeli officials, until now, there are no conditions that allow the resumption of negotiations, but they hoped the Paris meeting would yield results.

The expected meeting in Paris will include heads of the US, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel intelligence services, including heads of Mossad Dadi Barnea and Shin Bet Ronen Bar.

The meeting would focus on breaking the deadlock in the negotiations and creating a framework for a prisoners and detainees exchange deal between Israel and the Palestinian factions in Gaza.

Hamas is insisting not only that Israel completely stop fighting but also that it pulls its forces out of Gaza, whereas Israel sees ending its offensive as a "red line."

Sources said Egypt and Qatar need to be "more creative" in resolving the issues rather than just acting as a conduit to pass information between the various parties.

Furthermore, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that US and Israeli officials said as much as 80% of Hamas's vast warren of tunnels under Gaza remains intact after weeks of Israeli efforts to destroy them.

Israeli officials said that thwarting Hamas' ability to use tunnels is the keystone of Tel Aviv's efforts to arrest top Hamas leaders and rescue the remaining Israeli hostages in the Strip.

Since the start of the war, Israel has repeatedly said that it launched strikes on hospitals and other major infrastructure in the Strip in its pursuit of the tunnels.

Israel sought various methods to clear the tunnels, including installing pumps to flood them with water from the Mediterranean, destroying them with airstrikes and liquid explosives, searching them with dogs and robots, destroying their entrances, and raiding them with highly trained soldiers.

According to Tel Aviv, destroying the tunnels would deny Hamas "relatively safe" storage places for weapons and ammunition, hideouts for fighters, and centers for the movement's leadership.

The Wall Street Journal indicated that US and Israeli officials have had difficulty assessing the level of destruction of the tunnels, partly because they can't say how many miles of tunnels exist.

The officials from both countries estimate 20% to 40% of the tunnels have been damaged or rendered inoperable, US officials said, much of that in northern Gaza.

The Israeli bombing of the tunnels caused widespread destruction to the buildings on the surface of the ground.

Late last year, Israel launched the Sea of Atlantis and installed a series of pumps to flood the tunnels, despite concerns about the potential impact of pumping seawater on the Strip's freshwater supply and above-ground infrastructure.

Seawater has corroded some of the tunnels, but the overall effort wasn't as effective as Israeli officials had hoped, US officials said.

Washington says that Israel has specialized engineering units that include troops trained to destroy tunnels and not search for hostages and top Hamas leaders.

WSJ reported that Israel needs more troops are required to clear the tunnels.

Israeli officials believe that some of the hostages and Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya al-Sinwar, are in a command center in a tunnel under Khan Younis, which has been subjected to violent Israeli raids in recent days.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”