Blinken: Middle East Situation Most Dangerous ‘Since at Least 1973’

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington. (AFP)
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington. (AFP)
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Blinken: Middle East Situation Most Dangerous ‘Since at Least 1973’

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington. (AFP)
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington. (AFP)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to embark on his sixth visit to Israel next Saturday since the beginning of the Gaza war. The visit follows Blinken's recent cautionary statement, where he highlighted the "incredibly volatile time" in the Middle East, drawing historical parallels to 1973.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is actively weighing responses to a recent attack by pro-Iran militias against American soldiers.

The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Blinken's visit comes amid negotiations for a new deal aimed at securing the release of hostages held by Hamas and following agreements reached at the Paris meeting.

Notable participants at the Paris meeting included CIA chief William Burns, head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency David Barnea, head of the Egyptian Intelligence Service Abbas Kamel, and Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.

Blinken's remarks on the recent attack on US military personnel were made during a joint press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington.

The attack, claimed by the Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah and executed with an Iranian-manufactured "Shahed" drone, targeted a dormitory in Tower 22, a military logistical base located in the far northeast of Jordan. The assault resulted in three soldiers losing their lives and 34 injuries.

“From the outset, we have been clear in warning that anyone looking to take advantage of conflict in the Middle East and try to expand it: Don’t do it,” said Blinken. “And the President has been crystal clear: We will respond decisively to any aggression.”

He added that the US is still working on “putting a durable end to the cycle of violence that we’ve seen in the region for generation after generation,” highlighting that the opportunity exists to achieve it: “an integrated Israel with relations with all of its neighbors, security commitments, assurances that it needs to make sure that it can move forward in peace and security; a Palestinian Authority that’s reformed, and a clear pathway to a Palestinian state.”

That vision and its realization can “isolate the small number of actors who don’t want to get there, who have a very different vision for what the future is – notably Iran.”

Stoltenberg accused Iran of destabilizing the region and backing the Houthis attacks on the vessels in the Red Sea.

Volatile time

“I think it’s very important to note that this is an incredibly volatile time in the Middle East,” Blinken said. “I would argue that we’ve not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we’re facing now across the region since at least 1973, and arguably even before that.”

“We’ve taken action, and significant action, to deter groups, to degrade their capabilities in Iraq, in Syria, in Yemen,” he continued.

Amid concerns the violence could spark a wider regional conflict, Blinken noted the Biden administration is looking to prevent “broader escalation.”

“We want to prevent this conflict from spreading. So, we are intent on doing both ... that is, standing up for our people when they’re attacked while at the same time working every single day to prevent the conflict from growing and spreading,” he added.

Blinken noted the US “will respond strongly” and that the “response could be multileveled, come in stages, and be sustained over time.”

UNRWA

Commenting on the recent crisis over the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) that provide aid to Palestinian refugees, Blinken said the accusations were “troubling,” calling on the agency to investigate and potentially hold people accountable if wrongdoing is found.

Many key donors, including the United States and Germany, suspended funding to UNRWA after an Israeli detailed allegations that 12 of its employees were involved in the Oct. 7 cross-border raid that triggered Israel’s war against Hamas.

Blinken noted: “The UNWRA has played and continues to play an absolutely indispensable role in trying to make sure that men, women, and children who so desperately need assistance in Gaza actually get it. And no one else can play the role that UNRWA's been playing. Certainly not in the -- in the near term.”

Hostages

Blinken met with Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Washington.

The leaders discussed the importance of facilitating the immediate release of all hostages held by Hamas.

“Blinken additionally expressed gratitude for Qatar’s indispensable mediation efforts,” said State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller. “They agreed to continue close coordination to provide increased humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza and to urge the protection of civilians consistent with humanitarian law.”

“Secretary Blinken underscored the US commitment to a more peaceful, integrated, and prosperous Middle East region with security for Israel and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.”

Miller added that they also discussed “concerns with the Houthi threat to navigational rights and freedoms in the Red Sea.”

In the wake of the recent killing of American soldiers, Al Thani expressed his hope that the forthcoming response from Washington would not jeopardize the progress achieved in ongoing talks aimed at securing the release of hostages.

“I hope that nothing will hinder the efforts we are making or spoil the process,” he stated.



Franjieh Withdraws from Lebanon’s Presidential Race, Backs Army Commander

 People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)
People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)
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Franjieh Withdraws from Lebanon’s Presidential Race, Backs Army Commander

 People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)
People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)

Head of the Marada Movement Suleiman Franjieh announced on Wednesday that he was withdrawing from Lebanon’s presidential election and backing the candidacy of army commander Joseph Aoun.

Lebanon is holding the much-awaited election on Thursday.

In a post on the X platform, Franjieh said: "Now that the conditions are ripe for the election of a president tomorrow, I am withdrawing my candidacy, which has never been an obstacle in the electoral process."

He added that Aoun "enjoys the qualities that would preserve the standing of the country’s top post."

He hoped "the nation would overcome this stage with unity, diligence and responsibility."

Parliament will try to elect a president on Thursday, with officials seeing better chances of success in a political landscape shaken by Israel's war with Hezbollah and the toppling of the group's ally Bashar al-Assad in neighboring Syria.

The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the country's sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022. The former president is not related to army commander Aoun.

None of the political groups in the 128-seat parliament have enough seats to impose their choice, and they have so far been unable to agree on a consensus candidate. The vote marks the first test of Lebanon's power balance since the Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah - which propelled its then Christian ally Aoun to the presidency in 2016 - emerged badly pummeled from the war with Israel.

The Lebanese parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)

It takes place against a backdrop of historic change in the wider Middle East, where the Assad-led Syrian state exercised sway over Lebanon for decades, both directly and through allies such as Hezbollah.

Before Franjieh withdrew from the race and reflecting the shifts, Hezbollah and its ally the Shiite Amal Movement led by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri dropped their insistence on Franjieh, their declared candidate for the last two years, and said they are ready to go with a less divisive figure, three senior sources familiar with their thinking said.

Candidates in focus include army commander General Joseph Aoun - said by Lebanese politicians to enjoy US approval - Jihad Azour, a senior International Monetary Fund official who formerly served as finance minister, and Major-General Elias al-Baysari - head of General Security, a state security agency.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he felt happy because "God willing, tomorrow we will have a new president", according to a statement from his office.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also expressed hope in comments to France Inter radio, saying the election was "a prerequisite for the continuation of this dynamic of peace" and also for Lebanon's economic and social recovery.

However, two of the sources and an analyst cautioned that it was not yet certain any candidate would be elected. To win, a candidate must secure 86 votes in a first round, or 65 in a second round.

Rice is thrown on Newly-appointed General Joseph Aoun (C) as army commander, upon his arrival at his family's house in Sin El Fil, northeast of Beirut, Lebanon March 8, 2017. (Reuters)

‘National awakening’

Joseph Aoun would still need 86 votes because his election requires a constitutional amendment, as he is a still-serving state employee, Berri has said.

A State Department spokesperson said it was "up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external actor".

"We have been consistent in our efforts to press Lebanon to elect a new president, which we see as important to strengthening Lebanon’s political institutions," the spokesperson said.

Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa said last week there was "no veto" on Aoun. But the sources said Hezbollah, designated a terrorist group by the United States, will not support him.

Aoun has a key role in shoring up the ceasefire brokered by Washington and Paris in November. The terms require the Lebanese military to deploy into south Lebanon as Israeli troops and Hezbollah withdraw forces.

Still reeling from a financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon desperately needs foreign aid to rebuild. Much of the damage is in Shiite majority areas.

Hezbollah, its supply line to Iran severed by Assad's ousting, has urged Arab and international support for Lebanon.

Lebanon's Maronite Bishops called on lawmakers to elect a president, urging a "national awakening".