Regional, Int’l Mobilization to Confront Fallout from Houthis’ Sinking of Rubymar

This handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on March 2, 2024 and dated March 1, shows the Belize-flagged cargo ship Rubymar, damaged in a February 18 missile strike claimed by the Iran-backed Houthi militias, floating in the Red Sea. (Satellite image 2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP)
This handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on March 2, 2024 and dated March 1, shows the Belize-flagged cargo ship Rubymar, damaged in a February 18 missile strike claimed by the Iran-backed Houthi militias, floating in the Red Sea. (Satellite image 2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP)
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Regional, Int’l Mobilization to Confront Fallout from Houthis’ Sinking of Rubymar

This handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on March 2, 2024 and dated March 1, shows the Belize-flagged cargo ship Rubymar, damaged in a February 18 missile strike claimed by the Iran-backed Houthi militias, floating in the Red Sea. (Satellite image 2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP)
This handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on March 2, 2024 and dated March 1, shows the Belize-flagged cargo ship Rubymar, damaged in a February 18 missile strike claimed by the Iran-backed Houthi militias, floating in the Red Sea. (Satellite image 2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP)

Officials from Yemen, Djibouti, Eritrea, Britain, China, the United States, European Union and United Nations held a meeting in the interim Yemeni capital Aden on Tuesday to discuss the fallout from the sinking of the Rubymar by the Iran-backed Houthi militias in the Red Sea last week.

The UK-owned and Belize-flagged Rubymar was abandoned after the Houthis fired a missile at the ship in the southern Red Sea on February 18, leading to a fuel leak and it taking on water.

The US military confirmed on Saturday that the vessel had sunk, the first total loss from the attacks in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Yemen's legitimate government pointed out the risk to marine life due to its cargo of hazardous fertilizer.

Tuesday’s meeting tackled means to respond to the consequences of the disaster and limit its impact.

Yemeni Minister of Water and Environment Tawfik al-Sharjabi, who was present at the meeting, called on the regional and international communities to assume their responsibilities to stop the terrorist Houthi threats and disasters.

He urged them to help Yemen in confronting the challenges caused by these problems, reported the state news agency Saba.

The UN had announced that it was prepared to provide technical assistance to the Yemeni government by sending experts to assess the situation. They are expected to arrive in days.

Meanwhile, Dr. Abdulqader Al-Kharraz, former chairman of Yemen’s Environment Protection Authority (EPA), speculated that the sinking may have been deliberate to "bury hazardous waste" off Yemen.

He explained that the sinking may have been part of a deal struck between the Houthis and international parties.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he noted that the vessel was registered in England, but its owners are Syrian and Lebanese and the company owner is based in Beirut.

He noted that the operating company’s failure to take action to rescue the ship, even though it was moored at sea for 12 days, raises suspicions that the sinking was deliberate so that its cargo could be buried at sea.

This confirms that an environmental crime has been committed by the Houthis in cooperation with an international mafia, Al-Kharraz said.

Insurance industry sources said the Rubymar, built in 1997, was an ageing vessel with a low value, which was not believed to have been covered through the major London marine insurance market.

The US military previously said the February 18 missile attack had significantly damaged the bulk vessel and caused an 18-mile (29-km) oil slick.

"The approximately 21,000 metric tons of ammonium phosphate sulfate fertilizer that the vessel was carrying presents an environmental risk in the Red Sea," the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement.

Al-Kharraz said the Rubymar was carrying 41,000 tons of fertilizer and other unknown substances.

"It seems the ship was carrying hazardous waste that was not declared," he speculated.

Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak, the foreign minister in Yemen's legitimate government in Aden, said in a post on X: "The sinking of the Rubymar is an environmental catastrophe that Yemen and the region have never experienced before.

"It is a new tragedy for our country and our people. Every day we pay the price for the adventures of the Houthi militia ..."

The release of such large amounts of fertilizer into the Red Sea poses a serious threat to marine life, said Ali Al-Sawalmih, director of the Marine Science Station at the University of Jordan.

The overload of nutrients can stimulate excessive growth of algae, using up so much oxygen that regular marine life cannot survive, said Al-Sawalmih, describing a process called eutrophication.

"An urgent plan should be adopted by countries of the Red Sea to establish monitoring agenda of the polluted areas in the Red Sea as well as adopt a cleanup strategy," he said.

The overall impact depends on how ocean currents deplete the fertilizer and how it is released from the stricken vessel, said Xingchen Tony Wang, assistant professor at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Boston College.

The ecosystem of the southern Red Sea features pristine coral reefs, coastal mangroves and diverse marine life.

Last year, the area avoided a potential environmental disaster when the United Nations removed more than 1 million barrels of oil from a decaying supertanker moored off the Yemen coast. That type of operation may be more difficult in the current circumstances.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”