Maliki Ready to Reach Understanding with Sadr over Iraq Elections

The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)
The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)
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Maliki Ready to Reach Understanding with Sadr over Iraq Elections

The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)
The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)

Iraqi former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has sent “secret messages” to head of the Sadrist movement influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr about the possibility of him returning to political life through the next parliamentary elections, five Shiite sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The messages, which were delivered by mediators, also did not rule out the possibility of holding early elections if necessary.

The sources said Maliki met over the past two weeks figures close to Sadr to explain his position on the elections and the amendments he is seeking over the electoral law.

Asharq Al-Awsat had reported on Saturday that Maliki was drafting a new law with amendments that would lower the chances of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani of winning a sizable number of seats at the legislature.

The sources added that the amendments would “set the balances within the Coordination Framework” alliance in advance to prevent one single Shiite ally from reaping the largest number of seats.

Early elections?

The five sources said Maliki was not the only Shiite figure trying to contact Sadr. Rather, figures such as Ammar al-Hakim and Hadi al-Ameri had asked Maliki to inquire about the cleric’s plans to return to political life.

At the moment, mediators are delivering the messages between the Framework and Sadrist movement about the proposed amendments.

They were surprised to learn that Maliki and Sadr’s positions on the amendments “may be almost aligned,” stated the sources.

Maliki had in recent days been mulling the benefits or not of holding early elections, saying he was open to discussing the issue with the Sadrists.

A source from the Sadrist movement said: “Maliki is certain Sadr will take part in the next elections. He implied to the mediators that he was prepared to reach an understanding with the Sadrists over the best version of the electoral law that would pave the way for Sadr’s strong return to the political scene.”

Three sources said Maliki has yet to receive a “frank and direct response from Sadr”, but the mediators said the proposed amendments “may be acceptable.”

Sadr has yet to comment on any of the information about the Framework’s preparations for the elections.

His associates refused to comment to Asharq Al-Awsat on whether messages were indeed exchanged between him and the Framework.

One associate said: “Sadr is busy these days with collecting aid to the Palestinians in Gaza.”

The cleric had on Monday launched a donation campaign to help the people of Gaza.

Political activist in the Sadrist movement Issam Hussein ruled out the possibility of a potential mediation with Sadr.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Framework was trying to drag the movement into a heated rivalry with its own competing parties.

The Framework is a coalition of Shiite groups that are aligned with Iran. Their alliance helped secure Sudani’s appointment as prime minister.

Hussein added that the Framework is expecting Sudani to win several seats in the next elections, which could mark the beginning of the end of the coalition in its current form.

The Framework is expecting the PM to secure around 200,000 votes in Baghdad, which according to the current law, will win him 15 seats. The proposed amendments, however, would see those votes reduced to one seat. This is at the heart of the dispute within the Framework.

Asharq Al-Awsat had previously reported that the Framework believes that Sudani may win 60 seats at the new parliament even though he didn’t run in local elections.

Another source told Asharq Al-Awsat that Maliki was preparing for the worst-case scenario after he realized that even with the absence of his fiercest rival - Sadr - from the political scene, he was still unable to secure his goals.

It is too soon to say whether Maliki’s time with the Framework is coming to an end, it added.

‘Deepest concern’

The Framework has for weeks been speculating whether a new coalition would be formed. It would bring together Sudani and powerful conservative Shiite figures that are backed by the Asaib Ahl al-Haq movement headed by Qais Khazali.

Maliki believes that an alliance between Sudani and Khazali would mean the end of the Framework, which would have dire consequences, said two sources.

Coordination between Sudani and Khazali would mean the PM would emerge as the most powerful figure after the elections, said another source.

Confronted with these possibilities, Maliki is encouraging the Sadrists to return to politics and prevent the formation of powerful Shiite alliance that “could slip out of his control,” it went on to say.

An alliance between Sudani and Khazali “worries Maliki deeply, which is why he is seeking to counterbalance it by teaming up with Sadr.”

Another source explained that Maliki likely shares the Iranian view that keeping Sadr isolated only deepens the divisions between the Shiites that could spiral into unrest.



‘War Ruined Me’: Lebanon’s Farmers Mourn Lost Season

This photo shows burnt agricultural fields that were hit during Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese area of Marjeyoun, on October 30, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)
This photo shows burnt agricultural fields that were hit during Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese area of Marjeyoun, on October 30, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)
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‘War Ruined Me’: Lebanon’s Farmers Mourn Lost Season

This photo shows burnt agricultural fields that were hit during Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese area of Marjeyoun, on October 30, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)
This photo shows burnt agricultural fields that were hit during Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese area of Marjeyoun, on October 30, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)

Lebanese farmer Abu Taleb briefly returned to his orchard last month to salvage an avocado harvest but ran away empty handed as soon as Israeli air raids began.

"The war broke out just before the first harvest season," said Abu Taleb, displaced from the village of Tayr Debba near the southern city Tyre.

"When I went back in mid-October, it was deserted... it was scary," said the father of two, who is now sheltering in Tripoli more than 160 kilometers to the north and asked to be identified by a pseudonym because of security concerns.

Abu Taleb said his harvesting attempt was interrupted by an Israeli raid on the neighboring town of Markaba.

He was forced back to Tripoli without the avocados he usually exports every year.

Agricultural regions in Lebanon have been caught in the crossfire since hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah ramped up in October last year, a full-scale war breaking out on September 23.

The UN's agriculture agency, FAO, said more than 1,909 hectares of farmland in south Lebanon had been damaged or left unharvested between October last year and September 28.

The conflict has also displaced more than half a million people, including farmers who abandoned their crops just when they were ready to harvest.

Hani Saad had to abandon 120 hectares of farmland in the southern region of Nabatiyeh, which is rich in citrus and avocado plantations.

"If the ceasefire takes place within a month, I can save the harvest, otherwise, the whole season is ruined," said Saad who has been displaced to the coastal city of Jounieh, north of Beirut.

When an Israeli strike sparked a fire in one of Saad's orchards, he had to pay out of his own pocket for the fuel of the fire engine that extinguished the blaze.

His employees, meanwhile, have fled. Of 32 workers, 28 have left, mainly to neighboring Syria.

- 'Worst phase' -

Israeli strikes have put at least two land crossings with Syria out of service, blocking a key export route for produce and crops.

Airlines have suspended flights to Lebanon as insurance costs soar.

This has dealt a deadly blow to agricultural exports, most of which are destined for Gulf Arab states.

Fruit exporter Chadi Kaadan said exports to the Gulf have dropped by more than 50 percent.

The supply surplus in the local market has caused prices to plummet at home, he added.

"In the end, it is the farmer who loses," said Saad who used to earn $5,000 a day before the war started. Today, he barely manages $300.

While avocados can stay on the tree for months, they are starting to run out of water following Israeli strikes on irrigation channels, Saad said.

Citrus fruits and cherimoyas have already started to fall.

"The war has ruined me. I spend my time in front of the TV waiting for a ceasefire so I can return to my livelihood," Saad told AFP.

Gaby Hage, a resident of the Christian town of Rmeish, on the border with Israel, is one of the few farmers who decided to stay in south Lebanon.

He has only been able to harvest 100 of his 350 olive trees, which were left untended for a year because of cross-border strikes.

"I took advantage of a slight lull in the fighting to pick what I could," he told AFP.

Hage said agriculture was a lifeline for the inhabitants of his town, which has been cut off by the war.

Ibrahim Tarchichi, president of the farmers' union in the Bekaa Valley, which was hit hard by the strikes, believes that agriculture in Lebanon is going through the "worst phase" of its recent history.

"I have experienced four wars, it has never been this serious," he said.