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Iraq: Imminent Strikes on Iran-Backed Factions

File photo of members of the Al-Nujaba movement during a military parade in Baghdad (Reuters)
File photo of members of the Al-Nujaba movement during a military parade in Baghdad (Reuters)
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Iraq: Imminent Strikes on Iran-Backed Factions

File photo of members of the Al-Nujaba movement during a military parade in Baghdad (Reuters)
File photo of members of the Al-Nujaba movement during a military parade in Baghdad (Reuters)

Iraqi government and political sources suggest that more strikes on Iran-backed militia sites in Iraq are likely, following increased attacks on Israel last week.

On Thursday, Yemen’s Houthi group claimed drone attacks on Haifa port. Their leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, said these attacks will increase with help from the other resistance groups in Iraq.

Two drones hit targets, and US and Israeli defenses had to intercept many others, according to American officials and the Israeli military.

Israeli media reported that new weapons like cruise missiles, used more frequently since May, are harder for air defenses to destroy.

Iraqi sources have indicated that imminent and almost certain strikes will target Iraqi factions but declined to specify who will carry out these attacks.

Israeli media has confirmed that the Israeli military is planning extensive attacks on Iranian-backed groups in Iraq.

This threat follows an increase in rocket attacks on Israel by Iraqi factions in recent weeks, raising concerns in Washington and among some allies about potential Israeli retaliation and regional escalation, according to Israeli reports.

Last week, Hussein al-Mousawi, spokesperson for al-Nujaba, a faction of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” stated that the strikes are a natural progression of the groups’ role and aim to increase the cost of the war in Gaza.

Al-Mousawi added that they intend to strike from any location as long as it is necessary.

A senior official in the resistance axis told Reuters that while Iran is keen for Iraqi factions to participate in the regional battle against Israel, the tendency of these factions to miscalculate remains a constant concern.

A leader within Iraq’s Coordination Framework told Asharq Al-Awsat that armed Iraqi factions are likely rebelling due to disputes over influence and shares among Shiite powers, with the message aimed at Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Iran.

He clarified that this rebellion is a local issue, aiming to balance Shiite powers.

However, two Iraqi sources linked the recent escalation of Iraqi factions and increased activity with the Houthi group in Yemen against Israel to President Joe Biden’s plan to halt the war in Gaza.

They suggested that Iran likely intends to obstruct the plan to avoid cutting the resistance’s lifeline and hindering a new political formula in the region.

A high-ranking political source close to al-Sudani’s office stated that efforts are being made to stop attacks from within Iraqi territory, but guarantees are hard to come by at this point.

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UN Warns of Profound Liquidity Crisis in Yemen’s Houthi-Controlled Areas

For the first time, the Houthis will face difficulties in financial transfers and foreign currency supply (local media)
For the first time, the Houthis will face difficulties in financial transfers and foreign currency supply (local media)
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UN Warns of Profound Liquidity Crisis in Yemen’s Houthi-Controlled Areas

For the first time, the Houthis will face difficulties in financial transfers and foreign currency supply (local media)
For the first time, the Houthis will face difficulties in financial transfers and foreign currency supply (local media)

A UN program recently warned of low foreign currency reserves and a liquidity crisis in Houthi-controlled areas if the economic conflict with the internationally recognized government continues in Yemen.

It also noted that the poor food consumption significantly worsened in the north, increasing by 78% year-on-year, compared to a 52% increase in the south.

In its Food Security Update, the World Food Program (WFP) warned that a banking crisis is looming in Yemen, as a transaction ban has been announced between the intentionally recognized government and the Houthis-controlled areas.

“These developments, coupled with diminished foreign currency reserves in the north, could result in liquidity crisis with profound implications on markets, livelihoods, and food security situation,” it said.

The Program also noted that the current escalation in the “economic conflict” is likely to disrupt the flow of remittances and the overall financial and banking sectors, posing significant challenges for importers to procure essential food and non-food items, and ultimately impacting food supply and food price.

According to the WFP Update, this conflict comes while limited income opportunities are a key challenge to accessing food, reported by 71% in the north and 60% in the south.

It added that the depth and severity of food deprivation (poor food consumption) also peaked in May, at 32% in the north and 31% in the south.

This trend significantly worsened in the north, increasing by 78% year-on-year, compared to a 52% increase in the south.

Severe food deprivation reached an all-time high in Al Jawf, Al Bayda, Hajjah, Amran, and Al Hodeidah, WFP said.

Around 8% of households in the north reported relying on begging to meet their essential needs, compared to three percent in the south, it showed, adding that this practice was particularly pronounced in Sadah, Hajjah, Amran, and Al Bayda.

WFP also said the total volume of fuel imported via the Red Sea ports increased by 32% during Jan-May 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

Fuel imports via the southern ports of Aden and Mukalla decreased by 41% year-on-year, as local crude oil production from Marib largely contributes to covering domestic fuel needs in government controlled areas.

However, the WFP update said it is crucial to closely monitor import flows over the coming months, especially given the increased insurance costs for Yemeni ports, the diminished foreign currency reserves, and the banking crisis.

Also, by the end of May 2024, WFP said that the Yemeni riyal (YER) depreciated to an all-time low of YER 1,749 per dollar in government-controlled areas, losing around 25% of its value against the US dollar year-on-year.

“This decline is primarily attributed to low foreign currency reserves and revenue shortages due to reduced crude oil exports,” it said.

The UN program also noted that the overall volume of food imports via all Yemeni seaports increased by 22% during the first five months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

However, it showed that the Red Sea ports saw a 35% annual rise in food imports during Jan-May 2024, while the southern ports of Aden and Mukalla exhibited a 16% annual decline.