US intelligence said a large-scale confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to break out in the next several weeks if Israel and Hamas fail to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza, according to an article published by Politico.
US officials are trying to convince both sides to deescalate — a task that would be significantly easier with a ceasefire in place in Gaza.
But that agreement is in tense negotiations and US officials are not confident Israel and Hamas will agree to the deal on the table in the near future, the newspaper said Thursday.
It quoted two senior US officials as saying that the Israeli army and Hezbollah have drafted battle plans and are in the process of trying to procure additional weapons.
According to Politico, both sides have publicly said they do not want to go to war, but senior Biden officials increasingly believe that intense fighting is likely to break out despite efforts to try and prevent it.
Another senior US official told the newspaper that the risk is higher now than at any other point in recent weeks.
The official, like others in this story, was granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence.
The US intelligence offers a slightly more conservative assessment than those coming from parts of Europe.
Some European countries calculate that a war between Israel and Hezbollah could happen in days.
Many have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon. Canada is also preparing to evacuate thousands from the country.
The State Department on Thursday issued a travel advisory for US citizens, urging them to “strongly reconsider” travel to Lebanon.
Two of the senior officials stressed that it was unclear when exactly the war could start but noted that Israel is trying to rebuild its stockpiles and troop capacity quickly.
