US Intelligence: War Between Israel and Hezbollah Nearing

Israel’s air-defense missiles intercept rockets launched by Hezbollah near the Lebanese border (Reuters)
Israel’s air-defense missiles intercept rockets launched by Hezbollah near the Lebanese border (Reuters)
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US Intelligence: War Between Israel and Hezbollah Nearing

Israel’s air-defense missiles intercept rockets launched by Hezbollah near the Lebanese border (Reuters)
Israel’s air-defense missiles intercept rockets launched by Hezbollah near the Lebanese border (Reuters)

US intelligence said a large-scale confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to break out in the next several weeks if Israel and Hamas fail to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza, according to an article published by Politico.

US officials are trying to convince both sides to deescalate — a task that would be significantly easier with a ceasefire in place in Gaza.

But that agreement is in tense negotiations and US officials are not confident Israel and Hamas will agree to the deal on the table in the near future, the newspaper said Thursday.

It quoted two senior US officials as saying that the Israeli army and Hezbollah have drafted battle plans and are in the process of trying to procure additional weapons.

According to Politico, both sides have publicly said they do not want to go to war, but senior Biden officials increasingly believe that intense fighting is likely to break out despite efforts to try and prevent it.

Another senior US official told the newspaper that the risk is higher now than at any other point in recent weeks.

The official, like others in this story, was granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence.

The US intelligence offers a slightly more conservative assessment than those coming from parts of Europe.

Some European countries calculate that a war between Israel and Hezbollah could happen in days.

Many have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon. Canada is also preparing to evacuate thousands from the country.

The State Department on Thursday issued a travel advisory for US citizens, urging them to “strongly reconsider” travel to Lebanon.

Two of the senior officials stressed that it was unclear when exactly the war could start but noted that Israel is trying to rebuild its stockpiles and troop capacity quickly.



Iraq’s Ruling Coordination Framework Faces Growing Risk of Split

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi with Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq leader Humam Hamoudi (Prime Minister’s Media Office). 
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi with Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq leader Humam Hamoudi (Prime Minister’s Media Office). 
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Iraq’s Ruling Coordination Framework Faces Growing Risk of Split

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi with Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq leader Humam Hamoudi (Prime Minister’s Media Office). 
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi with Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq leader Humam Hamoudi (Prime Minister’s Media Office). 

Deepening divisions over Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, the disarmament of armed factions and the distribution of government posts threaten to fracture Iraq’s ruling Shiite Coordination Framework, according to sources close to the alliance.

The sources describe intense polarization fueled by competing political interests, disagreements over the country’s financial crisis and disputes over vacant and previously allocated government positions. Recent public clashes among senior figures have further exposed the widening rifts.

Dispute Erupts in Public

Tensions erupted publicly last Saturday when Khalid al-Marsoumi, a member of the Reconstruction and Development Alliance led by former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, called for the prosecution of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Al-Marsoumi accused Maliki of “destroying society and spreading discord,” citing the fall of nearly a third of Iraq’s territory to Daesh in 2014, when Maliki was prime minister.

Hisham al-Rikabi, director of Maliki’s media office, responded: “Enough hypocrisy and political grandstanding. Those who speak today about the fall of the provinces and discord must stop exploiting the tragedies of Iraqis in their political disputes.”

Last week, the Reconstruction and Development parliamentary bloc announced it would suspend its attendance at parliamentary sessions in protest against what it described as “systematic violations and irresponsible behavior that some lawmakers insist on pursuing.”

The bloc said such conduct amounted to “malicious smear campaigns and systematic targeting of the Reconstruction and Development Alliance and its leadership.”

Criticism and accusations directed at the alliance and its leader, Sudani, frequently come from lawmakers and political figures affiliated with other Coordination Framework parties.

Al-Zaidi’s Frustration

Sources close to the government and the Coordination Framework told Asharq Al-Awsat that sharp polarization had taken hold within the alliance.

They attributed the divisions to some factions aligning themselves with Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi while others sought to cast doubt on his management of the state and obstruct his efforts to disarm armed groups.

The sources also pointed to objections to Zaidi’s foreign visits, particularly his recent trip to Syria, and competition over vacant government positions, including the premiership and leadership of the National Security Service.

They said Zaidi was frustrated by the polarization and attempts by certain blocs and parties to undermine many of his powers and pressure him over efforts to combat corruption and disarm armed factions.

The prime minister also finds himself heavily constrained by Coordination Framework leaders who insist on meeting with him every week, in parallel with his regular weekly Cabinet meetings, the sources added.

Last Saturday, Humam Hamoudi, head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, said Zaidi was the Coordination Framework’s choice for prime minister.

“The Coordination Framework is accountable before God and the people for formulating visions and policies in accordance with the law and constitution, while Zaidi is responsible for implementing them through his government’s mechanisms,” Hamoudi said.

Observers interpreted the remarks as reflecting the alliance’s dominance over government decision-making and the limited authority exercised by the prime minister.

Political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari, head of the Center for Political Thinking, said the Coordination Framework, which had maintained its cohesion through two successive governments, was now facing serious disagreements stemming from competing interests and conflicting positions on several issues.

“Foremost among these disputes are the distribution of government posts, the handling of corruption cases and the issue of weapons, all of which could expose the Coordination Framework to the risk of a split,” Shammari told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Leadership Rivalries

Shammari said the long-running struggle for leadership within the Coordination Framework had become increasingly evident in the rivalry between Maliki and former Prime Minister Sudani.

The dispute, he explained, reflected a broader contest for leadership and attempts to impose influence and control over decision-making within the alliance.

Dispute Over Armed Factions

Shammari identified the weapons issue as one of the alliance’s most significant sources of division, extending beyond Maliki and Sudani to other Coordination Framework factions.

Most of its members favor keeping weapons in the hands of armed groups, although this is not a position shared by all parties, he said.

The issue has created a crisis between the prime minister’s push for rapid progress toward bringing all weapons under state control and factions unwilling to relinquish their arms amid mounting US pressure.

Shammari warned that the Coordination Framework’s failure to meet US demands to dismantle armed structures operating outside state authority could deepen its divisions.

He said the risk was particularly acute if President Donald Trump’s administration resorted to a maximum-pressure campaign that could include sanctions and other measures. Such developments, he argued, could accelerate the alliance’s fragmentation.

Iran’s Role in Preserving Unity

Despite the mounting tensions, Shammari noted that the Coordination Framework and Iraq’s Shiite political forces had weathered major political and popular upheavals since 2019.

What distinguished the period following the formation of Sudani’s government, he said, was the presence of a political force capable of managing the alliance’s internal balance, containing disputes and preserving a minimum level of cohesion among its members.

Shammari noted that Iran had been the principal external factor preventing the Coordination Framework from breaking apart.

He explained that Tehran continues to regard the alliance’s survival, despite its internal divisions, disputes and mutual accusations, as a means of strengthening its influence over Iraqi decision-making and maintaining a political umbrella that protects its influence in the country.

“As long as this factor remains in place, Iran will apparently continue working to prevent the Coordination Framework from splintering and preserve its cohesion, even if only formally,” Shammari said.

He cautioned, however, that Iranian influence did not guarantee the alliance’s survival.


Arab Parliament Reaffirms Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People

Arab Parliament logo
Arab Parliament logo
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Arab Parliament Reaffirms Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People

Arab Parliament logo
Arab Parliament logo

The Arab Parliament affirmed that the rights of the Palestinian people are inalienable and cannot be erased by the passage of time. Foremost among these rights are self-determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state along the June 4, 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

It stressed that these rights must be upheld in accordance with the two-state solution, relevant international resolutions, and the Arab Peace Initiative, in a manner that ensures a just and comprehensive peace.

In a statement issued on Monday to mark the 109th anniversary of the Balfour Declaration, the Arab Parliament described the declaration as a historic crime against the Palestinian people, whose devastating consequences continue to this day.

It noted that these repercussions are reflected in the ongoing crimes committed by the Israeli occupation against Palestinians and its persistent violations across the occupied Palestinian territories, particularly in the Gaza Strip, Jerusalem, and the West Bank. These include killings, forced displacement, starvation, and genocide, all in flagrant violation of international law, norms, and conventions.

The Arab Parliament condemned these continued crimes and violations, calling on the international community to assume its responsibilities and take decisive measures to stop them and hold those responsible accountable.


Lebanon’s EDL Begins Cutting Power to Ministries, Municipalities and Public Institutions over Unpaid Dues

The offices of Electricite du Liban in Beirut on August 17, 2024. (EPA)
The offices of Electricite du Liban in Beirut on August 17, 2024. (EPA)
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Lebanon’s EDL Begins Cutting Power to Ministries, Municipalities and Public Institutions over Unpaid Dues

The offices of Electricite du Liban in Beirut on August 17, 2024. (EPA)
The offices of Electricite du Liban in Beirut on August 17, 2024. (EPA)

Lebanon’s public power utility, "Electricite du Liban" (EDL), began on Monday implementing measures to disconnect electricity supply to public administrations, public institutions, and municipalities that have failed to settle their financial dues.

This unprecedented move, in terms of its sweeping scope, targets ministries, official bodies, water authorities, and municipalities. It comes amid a severe financial crisis confronting the state utility due to the accumulation of public sector debts.

An initial list obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat revealed the names of institutions and administrations covered by the measures. They include the Council for Development and Reconstruction, Ministry of Public Works and Transport, Directorate General of Urban Planning, Directorate General of Education at the Ministry of Education and Higher Education, the Land Registry Directorates, and the Directorate General of Customs, in addition to subscriptions belonging to the Ministry of Telecommunications across various regions.

An informed source confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that "the decision to cut electricity to public institutions and administrations that fail to settle their dues does not aim to punish them or disrupt their work, but rather to enforce respect for the law and establish permanent financial regularity in paying electricity bills, thereby ensuring that EDL secures its rights and the continuity of its operations."

The source explained that "the primary objective is not the power disconnection itself, but rather to push public institutions to assume their financial responsibilities and settle their accumulated obligations on a regular basis, instead of continuing to pile up debts and resorting to temporary fixes whenever the crisis intensifies."

Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut successfully avoided a power disconnection after the Civil Aviation Authority reached an understanding with EDL. The agreement stipulates the payment of a portion of the accumulated dues and the rescheduling of the remaining amounts, alongside a commitment to settle incoming bills on a regular basis.

The accumulated dues owed by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation reached around $22.8 million, according to figures circulated regarding public sector debts.

These measures come in light of EDL’s need to collect regular revenues to finance fuel purchases and operate power plants. Its dues from public administrations and institutions reached around a quarter of a billion dollars.

The problem of arrears dates back to years of irregular electricity bill payments and has worsened with the tariff increase and the lack of sufficient credit availability among some administrations. This presents a dual challenge related to settling past debts and ensuring the payment of new consumption.