Strikes targeting armed groups in Iraq are continuing amid the US-Israel war on Iran, piling pressure on decision-makers in Baghdad to maintain a unified stance even as factions declare their participation in the fighting alongside Tehran.
Over the past two weeks, the Iraqi government has repeatedly called for “distinguishing targets” and avoiding “mixing up the cards,” a reference to the need not to target Iraqi state institutions or official forces. The stance clashes with announcements by prominent armed factions declaring their involvement in military operations supporting Iran.
Those factions include Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Ansar Allah al-Awfiya. In statements, they said “collaborators” were providing coordinates to what they described as the “enemy.”
Akram al-Kaabi, leader of Harakat al-Nujaba, said in a statement that recent strikes resulted from information provided by “informants,” without identifying them.
A leader in one of the factions fighting alongside Iran, however, claimed the person in question could be linked to a security agency.
Popular Mobilization sites
According to faction statements, some recent strikes targeted sites linked to the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a security institution that includes several brigades affiliated with armed factions.
Observers say strikes on PMF-linked sites, alongside locations belonging to other factions, have created confusion in the political discourse over the nature of the targets and whether the strikes are aimed at specific factions or at an official security structure.
The Iraqi presidency and the prime minister’s office issued statements in recent days stressing the need to avoid dragging Iraq into the regional conflict, while reaffirming their rejection of using Iraqi territory as an arena for settling scores.
Political divisions
At the same time, divisions are widening among the armed factions themselves and between some factions and the government. Analysts say the rifts appear on two levels: military, over the extent of involvement in the war, and political, over the future of power in Baghdad.
Some factions have announced direct participation in military operations. Others have limited themselves to statements of support for Iran, while a third group has remained silent, awaiting developments in the confrontation.
The divisions are also visible within the Coordination Framework alliance, which includes the main Shiite political forces, particularly over the selection of the next prime minister.
Government formation
Iraqi politicians say the regional military escalation is further complicating an already deadlocked political scene, with parties still unable to agree on a new prime minister.
Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is the declared candidate of the Coordination Framework alliance. But sources say international objections, including from the United States, are hindering his nomination to form a government.
According to those sources, Maliki has stipulated that if he withdraws from the race, neither the current Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, nor the former Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, should be tasked with forming the government.
Analysts say rising regional tensions could push some political forces to exploit the war to strengthen their negotiating positions inside Iraq, particularly as pressure on Tehran grows, and prospects for regional understandings that previously influenced power arrangements in Baghdad diminish.
Additional complications
The picture is further complicated by ongoing disagreements among Kurdish parties over who should be named the presidential candidate. Under the constitution, the president appoints the nominee of the largest parliamentary bloc to form the government.
Observers say delays by Kurdish parties in agreeing on a presidential candidate are effectively obstructing the formation of a new government, while some political forces are using the delay to justify postponing a decision on the premiership.
Tensions have also risen after reports that areas in the Kurdistan region were struck in connection with the escalation between armed factions and their opponents, potentially adding a new dimension to political disputes between Baghdad and Erbil.
