No Surprises Expected as Syrians Vote for Their Next Parliament

A man votes at a polling station in a school during a power cut, on the day of the parliamentary elections, in Damascus, Syria July 15, 2024. REUTERS/Yamam al Shaar

Syrians were voting for members of a new parliament in an election Monday that was expected to hold few surprises but could pave the way for a constitutional amendment to extend the term of President Bashar Assad.
The vote is the fourth in Syria since mass anti-government protests in 2011 and a brutal crackdown by security forces spiraled into an ongoing civil war and comes as an economic crisis grips the country, fueling demonstrations in the south, The Associated Press said.
Syria's 2024 parliamentary election excludes opposition-held northwest Syria and the country's northeast under US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. The number of eligible voters hasn't been announced either, and unlike presidential elections, the millions of diaspora Syrians — whose numbers have ballooned since the civil war — are not qualified to vote for the legislators.
Western countries and Assad's critics say the polling in government-held areas in Syria is neither free nor fair.
This year, 1,516 government-approved candidates are running for the 250-seat People’s Assembly. Some 8,151 polling stations were set up in 15 voting districts in government-held areas, with results expected to be announced Monday night or the following day.
In the last round of elections in 2020, the outcome was delayed for days due to technical issues, according to officials. Assad’s Baath Party won 166 seats, in addition to 17 others from allied parties, and 67 seats went to independent candidates.
The poll is taking place as Syria’s economy continues to deteriorate after years of conflict, Western-led sanctions, the COVID-19 pandemic and dwindling aid due to donor fatigue.
Meanwhile, the value of the country's national currency against the dollar has reached new lows, sparking food and fuel inflation. The government has also partially rolled back its subsidy program almost a year ago while at the same time doubling public sector and pension wages.
Voters told The Associated Press that fixing Syria's hobbling economy is a key issue for them.
“We hope that our trust in these new legislators will bring good to the country and improve conditions,” said Ahmad al-Afoush, 40, after voting in Damascus.
Shirine al-Khleif hopes the new parliament will proactively take measures to improve the living situation in Syria.
"I don’t want to say that the predecessors weren’t good. We just want things to improve,” the 47-year-old engineer said.
In the Druze-majority southern province of Sweida, where anti-government protests have been taking place regularly for nearly a year due to economic misery, many called for a boycott of the polls. Videos posted online by Suwayda24, a local activist media collective, and others showed protesters grabbing ballot boxes off a truck in an attempt to stop them from reaching the polling stations.
Elsewhere, campaigning was low-key as candidates focused mainly on general slogans such as national unity and prosperity.
Vladimir Pran, an independent adviser on transitional political and electoral processes, said the competitive part of the Syrian election process comes before the polling starts, when a voted-on list of Baath Party candidates is sent to the party’s central command, allowing them to run in the election.
“Elections are really already finished... with the end of the primary process,” he said. Once the Baath party list is completed, “you can check the list and the results, and you will see that literally all of them will be in the Parliament.”
The number of incumbents who made the final list this year was relatively low, suggesting a reshuffling within the Baath party.
Maroun Sfeir, a consultant on transitional electoral and political processes, said the 169 candidates put forward by the Baath party alone go past the margin of 167 MPs needed to propose a constitutional amendment, protect the president from being accused of treason and veto legislation.
In addition, 16 candidates from Baath-allied parties are also running on the same list, he said. “You’re only three MPs short of three-quarters of the parliament, which is required for (passing) a constitutional amendment.”
While that leaves 65 slots open for independent candidates, Sfeir said they should not be expected to present a real opposition bloc.
“They are all pre-vetted... to ensure that they’re all loyal or without any threat,” he said.
With Assad facing term limits that would end his presidency in 2028, the next parliament is widely expected to try to pass a constitutional amendment to extend his term.