UN Libya Mission to Resume Talks between Factions over Bank Governor

 Libyan Ministry of Interior personnel stand guard in front of the Central Bank of Libya in Tripoli, Libya, August 27, 2024. (Reuters)
Libyan Ministry of Interior personnel stand guard in front of the Central Bank of Libya in Tripoli, Libya, August 27, 2024. (Reuters)
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UN Libya Mission to Resume Talks between Factions over Bank Governor

 Libyan Ministry of Interior personnel stand guard in front of the Central Bank of Libya in Tripoli, Libya, August 27, 2024. (Reuters)
Libyan Ministry of Interior personnel stand guard in front of the Central Bank of Libya in Tripoli, Libya, August 27, 2024. (Reuters)

The UN mission in Libya will resume facilitating talks between factions in Tripoli on Wednesday to try to resolve the central bank crisis that has slashed oil output and threatened to end four years of relative stability.

Libya's two legislative bodies, the House of Representatives based in Benghazi in eastern Libya, and the High Council of State in Tripoli in the west, agreed this month to jointly appoint a central bank governor, potentially defusing a battle for control of the country's oil revenue.

Libya's central bank is the sole legal repository for oil revenue, and it pays state salaries across the country.

The consultations between the two bodies were supposed to have concluded on Monday over an agreement to choose a nominee for governor and a board of directions within 30 days, having already been extended last week by five days.

The UN mission, in agreeing to resume the talks with both legislative bodies and the Presidential Council, said "time is of the essence in reaching a consensual solution to the crisis and mitigating its adverse effects".

The Presidential Council, based in Tripoli, had only rarely intervened directly in Libyan politics before its head Mohammed al-Menfi moved in August to replace veteran central bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir which led eastern factions to order a halt of oil flows across Libyan oilfields in protest.

Libya has had little peace since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising and it split in 2014 between eastern and western factions. Major warfare ended with a ceasefire in 2020 and attempts to reunify, but divisions persist.

The House of Representatives parliament and the High State Council were both recognized internationally in a 2015 political agreement, although they backed different sides for much of Libya's conflict.



Iraq Faces 2025 Fiscal Squeeze Amid Oil Price Decline, Adviser to PM Says 

A general view shows an oil rig used in drilling at the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq, July 5, 2022. (Reuters)
A general view shows an oil rig used in drilling at the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq, July 5, 2022. (Reuters)
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Iraq Faces 2025 Fiscal Squeeze Amid Oil Price Decline, Adviser to PM Says 

A general view shows an oil rig used in drilling at the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq, July 5, 2022. (Reuters)
A general view shows an oil rig used in drilling at the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq, July 5, 2022. (Reuters)

Iraq faces a budget crunch in 2025 due to the slump in the price of oil, the overwhelming source of government revenue, a top economic adviser to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said.

"We don't anticipate major problems in 2024, but we need stricter financial discipline for 2025," Mudher Saleh told Reuters in an interview late on Monday.

Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, is heavily dependent on oil revenues. The hydrocarbons sector accounts for the vast majority of export earnings and some 90% of state revenue.

This huge reliance on oil makes Iraq particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global crude prices.

Still, Iraq increased its budget in 2024 even after record spending in 2023, when more than half a million additional employees were hired into the already-bloated public sector and a capital-intensive nationwide infrastructure revamp began.

The 2024 budget rose to 211 trillion dinars ($161 billion) from 199 trillion dinars ($153 billion) in 2023, maintaining a projected deficit of 64 trillion dinars, Saleh said.

The budget assumes an oil price of $70 per barrel in 2024, around $6 less than the likely average price this year.

Saleh said that paying salaries and pensions on time remain a top priority. They account for 90 trillion dinars ($69 billion), or over 40% of the budget, and are a key factor of social stability in Iraq.

"The government will pay salaries even if it costs everything. Salaries are holy in Iraq," he said.

Infrastructure development, meanwhile, could be refocused on the most strategic projects - such as key road and bridge works in the capital Baghdad - if the state finds itself in a financial crunch, he said.

To bolster finances, Iraq is focusing on increasing non-oil revenues through improved tax collection but is not exploring any new levies, Saleh said.

He estimated that Iraq loses up to $10 billion annually due to tax evasion and customs-related problems.

Concerns for the 2025 budget reflect a challenging global oil market. Oil prices have been on a downward trend since mid-2022, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, falling from over $120 per barrel to below $75 in recent days.

This decline is largely attributed to weakening global demand, particularly from China, the world's largest oil importer, as its economic growth slows down.