Political sources in Tel Aviv have said that negotiations on a ceasefire deal in Lebanon have reached advanced stages and will be based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
The sources confirmed Tuesday that in addition to the US efforts, Russia will use its influence on Iran to end the fighting in Lebanon.
The same sources reported that Moscow informed Tel Aviv that Tehran was encouraging Hezbollah to go ahead with the deal regardless of developments in Gaza.
The sources said White House special envoy Amos Hochstein is awaiting a signal from his mediation partners, France and Qatar, who are in contact with Hezbollah.
Advanced Stages
Nadav Eyal, a political reporter at Israel’s Yediot Ahronot newspaper, quoted on Tuesday senior Israeli officials as saying that the negotiations on a ceasefire deal in Lebanon are “in advanced stages.”
He said Hochstein may travel to Israel and Lebanon before the November 5 US presidential elections, to attempt to reach final agreements.
“If the talks advance, the Israeli army will begin to withdraw most of its troops and redeploy forces in South Lebanon and leave areas where their mission to remove the threat from Radwan forces, has been completed, and likely remain only where there is tactical significance,” Eyal wrote.
The officials in Israel, he noted, say that Lebanon's situation has completely changed after the Israeli army offensive and that there is an agreement in Beirut to disconnect both the Lebanon and Gazan fronts.
They stressed the fact that fighting would continue while negotiations are ongoing and until they are completed.
Also, Western intelligence sources believe Iran would allow Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire, and perhaps even encourage it, even if the fighting in Gaza does not end.
60 Days
The Israeli officials said a ceasefire agreement would begin with a 60-day acclimation period during which Hezbollah and the Israeli army withhold their fire and the Lebanese army will deploy to the south, while a new mechanism to supervise the region will be considered.
Eyal said there will be no new resolution passed in the UN Security Council.
He quoted French and American officials as saying that Hezbollah, which suffered severe blows and lost all of its leadership, has been bolstered in the past two weeks, by the growing number of casualties among Israeli army soldiers. “This is an opportunity that must not be missed,” they said.
Israeli Proposal
According to the newspaper, the proposed deal to be agreed by Israel, Lebanon, the US and others, includes three components.
The first is a wider implementation of Resolution 1701, passed after the 2006 Second Lebanon War, that would ensure there would be no Hezbollah south of the Litani River, and at a significant distance from Metula.
Lebanon's army is to deploy 5,000 to 10,000 troops along the border.
UNIFIL forces will be increased, perhaps some, replaced by French, British and German forces. Eyal said Israel has approached those countries to see if they would agree.
The second component is the establishment of an international mechanism to supervise the area and consider violation claims by any of the sides.
Israeli officials said the US has agreed that if Hezbollah violates the agreement, for example by building fortifications south of the Litani, and the Lebanese army or UNIFIL fail to quickly respond, the Israeli army would be able to take prolonged action to remove the threat.
As part of the negotiations, Israel asked for a letter from US President Joe Biden, stating Israel's right to self-defense, making it clear that the Israeli army would be able to act. American officials did not respond to questions on the matter.
The third component in the agreement being negotiated is preventing Hezbollah from rearming. This means blocking military means, to be identified as banned, from being brought in by air, land or sea.
Russian Role
Russia expressed a willingness to assist in implementing the agreement and is destined to play a part in stabilizing the region in Lebanon and Syria. “The Russians will have a special role in preventing further escalation,” a foreign source said, according to Eyal.
He said Israel will engage with the Kremlin directly and is interested in Russian participation, in the hopes that it would contribute to the agreement's implementation and also to reduce its dependence on US involvement.
Netanyahu’s Envoy
In the past days, Netanyahu emissaries have been trying to enlist other countries to join supervision roles in the pending agreement, Eyal said.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer has been working with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan while Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has discussed the matter with Hochstein.
Other sources told Maariv that the US administration is putting pressure on Israel to respond to Hochstein’s efforts.
The newspaper revealed the presence of hints that Washington would allow France to pass a Security Council resolution in favor of a ceasefire in Lebanon if Netanyahu blocks the deal. According to security sources in Tel Aviv, the Israeli military welcomes the agreement.
