Israeli Optimism on Ceasefire Deal in Lebanon

Israeli soldiers inspect a site where a Hezbollah missile landed in northern Israel on Tuesday (AFP)
Israeli soldiers inspect a site where a Hezbollah missile landed in northern Israel on Tuesday (AFP)
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Israeli Optimism on Ceasefire Deal in Lebanon

Israeli soldiers inspect a site where a Hezbollah missile landed in northern Israel on Tuesday (AFP)
Israeli soldiers inspect a site where a Hezbollah missile landed in northern Israel on Tuesday (AFP)

Political sources in Tel Aviv have said that negotiations on a ceasefire deal in Lebanon have reached advanced stages and will be based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

The sources confirmed Tuesday that in addition to the US efforts, Russia will use its influence on Iran to end the fighting in Lebanon.

The same sources reported that Moscow informed Tel Aviv that Tehran was encouraging Hezbollah to go ahead with the deal regardless of developments in Gaza.

The sources said White House special envoy Amos Hochstein is awaiting a signal from his mediation partners, France and Qatar, who are in contact with Hezbollah.

Advanced Stages

Nadav Eyal, a political reporter at Israel’s Yediot Ahronot newspaper, quoted on Tuesday senior Israeli officials as saying that the negotiations on a ceasefire deal in Lebanon are “in advanced stages.”

He said Hochstein may travel to Israel and Lebanon before the November 5 US presidential elections, to attempt to reach final agreements.

“If the talks advance, the Israeli army will begin to withdraw most of its troops and redeploy forces in South Lebanon and leave areas where their mission to remove the threat from Radwan forces, has been completed, and likely remain only where there is tactical significance,” Eyal wrote.

The officials in Israel, he noted, say that Lebanon's situation has completely changed after the Israeli army offensive and that there is an agreement in Beirut to disconnect both the Lebanon and Gazan fronts.

They stressed the fact that fighting would continue while negotiations are ongoing and until they are completed.

Also, Western intelligence sources believe Iran would allow Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire, and perhaps even encourage it, even if the fighting in Gaza does not end.

60 Days

The Israeli officials said a ceasefire agreement would begin with a 60-day acclimation period during which Hezbollah and the Israeli army withhold their fire and the Lebanese army will deploy to the south, while a new mechanism to supervise the region will be considered.

Eyal said there will be no new resolution passed in the UN Security Council.

He quoted French and American officials as saying that Hezbollah, which suffered severe blows and lost all of its leadership, has been bolstered in the past two weeks, by the growing number of casualties among Israeli army soldiers. “This is an opportunity that must not be missed,” they said.

Israeli Proposal

According to the newspaper, the proposed deal to be agreed by Israel, Lebanon, the US and others, includes three components.

The first is a wider implementation of Resolution 1701, passed after the 2006 Second Lebanon War, that would ensure there would be no Hezbollah south of the Litani River, and at a significant distance from Metula.

Lebanon's army is to deploy 5,000 to 10,000 troops along the border.

UNIFIL forces will be increased, perhaps some, replaced by French, British and German forces. Eyal said Israel has approached those countries to see if they would agree.

The second component is the establishment of an international mechanism to supervise the area and consider violation claims by any of the sides.

Israeli officials said the US has agreed that if Hezbollah violates the agreement, for example by building fortifications south of the Litani, and the Lebanese army or UNIFIL fail to quickly respond, the Israeli army would be able to take prolonged action to remove the threat.

As part of the negotiations, Israel asked for a letter from US President Joe Biden, stating Israel's right to self-defense, making it clear that the Israeli army would be able to act. American officials did not respond to questions on the matter.

The third component in the agreement being negotiated is preventing Hezbollah from rearming. This means blocking military means, to be identified as banned, from being brought in by air, land or sea.

Russian Role

Russia expressed a willingness to assist in implementing the agreement and is destined to play a part in stabilizing the region in Lebanon and Syria. “The Russians will have a special role in preventing further escalation,” a foreign source said, according to Eyal.

He said Israel will engage with the Kremlin directly and is interested in Russian participation, in the hopes that it would contribute to the agreement's implementation and also to reduce its dependence on US involvement.

Netanyahu’s Envoy

In the past days, Netanyahu emissaries have been trying to enlist other countries to join supervision roles in the pending agreement, Eyal said.

Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer has been working with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan while Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has discussed the matter with Hochstein.

Other sources told Maariv that the US administration is putting pressure on Israel to respond to Hochstein’s efforts.

The newspaper revealed the presence of hints that Washington would allow France to pass a Security Council resolution in favor of a ceasefire in Lebanon if Netanyahu blocks the deal. According to security sources in Tel Aviv, the Israeli military welcomes the agreement.



US Tracking Nearly 500 Incidents of Civilian Harm During Israel’s Gaza War

 People pray by the bodies of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip October 30, 2024. (Reuters)
People pray by the bodies of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip October 30, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

US Tracking Nearly 500 Incidents of Civilian Harm During Israel’s Gaza War

 People pray by the bodies of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip October 30, 2024. (Reuters)
People pray by the bodies of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip October 30, 2024. (Reuters)

US State Department officials have identified nearly 500 potential incidents of civilian harm during Israel's military operations in Gaza involving US-furnished weapons, but have not taken further action on any of them, three sources, including a US official familiar with the matter, said this week.

The incidents - some of which might have violated international humanitarian law, according to the sources - have been recorded since Oct. 7, 2023, when the Gaza war started. They are being collected by the State Department's Civilian Harm Incident Response Guidance, a formal mechanism for tracking and assessing any reported misuse of US-origin weapons.

State Department officials gathered the incidents from public and non-public sources, including media reporting, civil society groups and foreign government contacts.

The mechanism, which was established in August 2023 to be applied to all countries that receive US arms, has three stages: incident analysis, policy impact assessment, and coordinated department action, according to a December internal State Department cable reviewed by Reuters.

None of the Gaza cases had yet reached the third stage of action, said a former US official familiar with the matter. Options, the former official said, could range from working with Israel's government to help mitigate harm, to suspending existing arms export licenses or withholding future approvals.

The Washington Post first reported the nearly 500 incidents on Wednesday.

The Biden administration has said it is reasonable to assess that Israel has breached international law in the conflict, but assessing individual incidents was "very difficult work," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters on Wednesday.

"We are conducting those investigations, and we are conducting them thoroughly, and we are conducting them aggressively, but we want to get to the right answer, and it's important that we not jump to a pre-ordained result, and that we not skip any of the work," Miller said, adding that Washington consistently raises concerns over civilian harm with Israel.

The administration of President Joe Biden has long said it is yet to definitively assess an incident in which Israel has violated international humanitarian law during its operation in Gaza.

John Ramming Chappell, advocacy and legal adviser at the Center for Civilians in Conflict, said the Biden administration "has consistently deferred to Israeli authorities and declined to do its own investigations."

"The US government hasn't done nearly enough to investigate how the Israeli military uses weapons made in the United States and paid for by US taxpayers," he said.

The civilian harm process does not only look at potential violations of international law but at any incident where civilians are killed or injured and where US arms are implicated, and looks at whether this could have been avoided or reduced, said one US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

A review of an incident can lead to a recommendation that a unit needs more training or different equipment, as well as more severe consequences, the official said.

Israel's military conduct has come under increasing scrutiny as its forces have killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the enclave's health authorities.

The latest episode of bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered on Oct. 7, 2023, when Palestinian Hamas fighters attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and abducting 250 others, according to Israeli tallies.