Asharq Al-Awsat Reveals Russia’s Moves Before Assad’s Downfall

People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
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Asharq Al-Awsat Reveals Russia’s Moves Before Assad’s Downfall

People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had no choice but to act fast. Russia urgently advised him to launch a political initiative to open dialogue with the opposition and prevent the start of Operation “Deterring Aggression.”

After the attack began, Moscow had accurate details on its timing, size, and targets. By then, it was too late.

Moscow quickly decided to arrange a safe exit to avoid a destructive sectarian war, which would have had catastrophic consequences, said Rami Shaar, a close advisor to Russian officials.

Shaar told Asharq Al-Awsat that Russia’s intelligence on the planned large-scale attack led to urgent action 48 hours before it began. Using “specialized channels,” Russian officials warned Syria that “armed factions would advance towards Aleppo and other cities.”

He added that urgent talks with Türkiye and Iran aimed to stop the attack and push for political dialogue. However, it soon became clear that the factions were determined to proceed.

Shaar explained that Moscow’s decision was difficult because intelligence showed that the attack wasn’t just backed by the factions, but also by broad popular support.

According to the reports, “If the attack advances widely, around 80% of Syrians will strongly support it.”

Shaar told Asharq Al-Awsat that, in a bid to avoid major consequences, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran discussed ways to prevent a destructive conflict. Moscow’s intelligence also showed widespread discontent in the Syrian army, worsened by poor living conditions for soldiers and officers.

The close advisor to Russian officials explained that these factors led Russia to prioritize stopping a collapse that could trigger a civil war.

Russia made a direct call to Assad, warning that “all signs point to a major disaster, and a political initiative for dialogue must be launched quickly.”

However, according to Shaar, “Assad did not respond as urgently as needed.”

Shaar added that by then, opposition forces had already moved toward Aleppo, gaining significant local support, while the army had to gradually withdraw, allowing the opposition to take control of the city.



One Killed in Israeli Drone Strike in South Lebanon

Lebanese security forces set up a checkpoint on the road leading to the scene of an Israeli airstrike in Baawerta (Baaouerta), near the coastal town of Damour, about 20 kilometres south of Beirut, on April 22, 2025. (Photo by Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)
Lebanese security forces set up a checkpoint on the road leading to the scene of an Israeli airstrike in Baawerta (Baaouerta), near the coastal town of Damour, about 20 kilometres south of Beirut, on April 22, 2025. (Photo by Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)
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One Killed in Israeli Drone Strike in South Lebanon

Lebanese security forces set up a checkpoint on the road leading to the scene of an Israeli airstrike in Baawerta (Baaouerta), near the coastal town of Damour, about 20 kilometres south of Beirut, on April 22, 2025. (Photo by Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)
Lebanese security forces set up a checkpoint on the road leading to the scene of an Israeli airstrike in Baawerta (Baaouerta), near the coastal town of Damour, about 20 kilometres south of Beirut, on April 22, 2025. (Photo by Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)

An Israeli drone strike on a Lebanese border town on Sunday killed one person, Lebanon's health ministry said.

The ministry reported in a statement "one martyr" from "the drone strike launched by the Israeli enemy on the town of Halta,” in southern Lebanon.

Local media said the man was killed while working on his chicken farm.

Israel has continued to carry out regular strikes in Lebanon despite the November truce that sought to halt more than a year of hostilities with Hezbollah, including two months of all-out war.

A pair of Israeli strikes on Tuesday killed a leader of Jamaa Islamiya in Baawerta, on the coast south of Beirut, and one person who Israel said was a local Hezbollah commander in south Lebanon's Tyre district.