Asharq Al-Awsat Reveals Russia’s Moves Before Assad’s Downfall

People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
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Asharq Al-Awsat Reveals Russia’s Moves Before Assad’s Downfall

People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had no choice but to act fast. Russia urgently advised him to launch a political initiative to open dialogue with the opposition and prevent the start of Operation “Deterring Aggression.”

After the attack began, Moscow had accurate details on its timing, size, and targets. By then, it was too late.

Moscow quickly decided to arrange a safe exit to avoid a destructive sectarian war, which would have had catastrophic consequences, said Rami Shaar, a close advisor to Russian officials.

Shaar told Asharq Al-Awsat that Russia’s intelligence on the planned large-scale attack led to urgent action 48 hours before it began. Using “specialized channels,” Russian officials warned Syria that “armed factions would advance towards Aleppo and other cities.”

He added that urgent talks with Türkiye and Iran aimed to stop the attack and push for political dialogue. However, it soon became clear that the factions were determined to proceed.

Shaar explained that Moscow’s decision was difficult because intelligence showed that the attack wasn’t just backed by the factions, but also by broad popular support.

According to the reports, “If the attack advances widely, around 80% of Syrians will strongly support it.”

Shaar told Asharq Al-Awsat that, in a bid to avoid major consequences, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran discussed ways to prevent a destructive conflict. Moscow’s intelligence also showed widespread discontent in the Syrian army, worsened by poor living conditions for soldiers and officers.

The close advisor to Russian officials explained that these factors led Russia to prioritize stopping a collapse that could trigger a civil war.

Russia made a direct call to Assad, warning that “all signs point to a major disaster, and a political initiative for dialogue must be launched quickly.”

However, according to Shaar, “Assad did not respond as urgently as needed.”

Shaar added that by then, opposition forces had already moved toward Aleppo, gaining significant local support, while the army had to gradually withdraw, allowing the opposition to take control of the city.



Türkiye Backing Syria’s Military and Has No Immediate Withdrawal Plans, Defense Minister Says 

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)
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Türkiye Backing Syria’s Military and Has No Immediate Withdrawal Plans, Defense Minister Says 

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)

Türkiye is training and advising Syria's armed forces and helping improve its defenses, and has no immediate plans for the withdrawal or relocation of its troops stationed there, Defense Minister Yasar Guler told Reuters.

Türkiye has emerged as a key foreign ally of Syria's new government since opposition groups - some of them backed for years by Ankara - ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December to end his family's five-decade rule.

It has promised to help rebuild neighboring Syria and facilitate the return of millions of Syrian civil war refugees, and played a key role last month getting US and European sanctions on Syria lifted.

The newfound Turkish influence in Damascus has raised Israeli concerns and risked a standoff or worse in Syria between the regional powers.

In written answers to questions from Reuters, Guler said Türkiye and Israel, which carried out its latest airstrikes on southern Syria late on Tuesday, are continuing de-confliction talks to avoid military accidents in the country.

Türkiye’s overall priority in Syria is preserving its territorial integrity and unity, and ridding it of terrorism, he said, adding Ankara was supporting Damascus in these efforts.

"We have started providing military training and consultancy services, while taking steps to increase Syria's defense capacity," Guler said, without elaborating on those steps.

Named to the post by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan two years ago, Guler said it was too early to discuss possible withdrawal or relocation of the more than 20,000 Turkish troops in Syria.

Ankara controlled swathes of northern Syria and established dozens of bases there after several cross-border operations in recent years against Kurdish militants it deems terrorists.

This can "only be re-evaluated when Syria achieves peace and stability, when the threat of terrorism in the region is fully removed, when our border security is fully ensured, and when the honorable return of people who had to flee is done," he said.

NATO member Türkiye has accused Israel of undermining Syrian peace and rebuilding with its military operations there in recent months and, since late 2023, has also fiercely criticized Israel's assault on Gaza.

But the two regional powers have been quietly working to establish a de-confliction mechanism in Syria.

Guler described the talks as "technical level meetings to establish a de-confliction mechanism to prevent unwanted events" or direct conflict, as well as "a communication and coordination structure".

"Our efforts to form this line and make it fully operational continue. Yet it should not be forgotten that the de-confliction mechanism is not a normalization," he told Reuters.