Asharq Al-Awsat Reveals Russia’s Moves Before Assad’s Downfall

People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
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Asharq Al-Awsat Reveals Russia’s Moves Before Assad’s Downfall

People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had no choice but to act fast. Russia urgently advised him to launch a political initiative to open dialogue with the opposition and prevent the start of Operation “Deterring Aggression.”

After the attack began, Moscow had accurate details on its timing, size, and targets. By then, it was too late.

Moscow quickly decided to arrange a safe exit to avoid a destructive sectarian war, which would have had catastrophic consequences, said Rami Shaar, a close advisor to Russian officials.

Shaar told Asharq Al-Awsat that Russia’s intelligence on the planned large-scale attack led to urgent action 48 hours before it began. Using “specialized channels,” Russian officials warned Syria that “armed factions would advance towards Aleppo and other cities.”

He added that urgent talks with Türkiye and Iran aimed to stop the attack and push for political dialogue. However, it soon became clear that the factions were determined to proceed.

Shaar explained that Moscow’s decision was difficult because intelligence showed that the attack wasn’t just backed by the factions, but also by broad popular support.

According to the reports, “If the attack advances widely, around 80% of Syrians will strongly support it.”

Shaar told Asharq Al-Awsat that, in a bid to avoid major consequences, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran discussed ways to prevent a destructive conflict. Moscow’s intelligence also showed widespread discontent in the Syrian army, worsened by poor living conditions for soldiers and officers.

The close advisor to Russian officials explained that these factors led Russia to prioritize stopping a collapse that could trigger a civil war.

Russia made a direct call to Assad, warning that “all signs point to a major disaster, and a political initiative for dialogue must be launched quickly.”

However, according to Shaar, “Assad did not respond as urgently as needed.”

Shaar added that by then, opposition forces had already moved toward Aleppo, gaining significant local support, while the army had to gradually withdraw, allowing the opposition to take control of the city.



Barrack Says Hezbollah Involvement in Iran-Israel War Would Be 'Very Bad Decision'

A handout photo released by the Lebanese Presidency press office on June 19, 2025 shows Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun (R) welcoming US negotiator Thomas Barrack at the presidential palace of Baabda east of Beirut. (Photo by Lebanese Presidency / AFP)
A handout photo released by the Lebanese Presidency press office on June 19, 2025 shows Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun (R) welcoming US negotiator Thomas Barrack at the presidential palace of Baabda east of Beirut. (Photo by Lebanese Presidency / AFP)
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Barrack Says Hezbollah Involvement in Iran-Israel War Would Be 'Very Bad Decision'

A handout photo released by the Lebanese Presidency press office on June 19, 2025 shows Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun (R) welcoming US negotiator Thomas Barrack at the presidential palace of Baabda east of Beirut. (Photo by Lebanese Presidency / AFP)
A handout photo released by the Lebanese Presidency press office on June 19, 2025 shows Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun (R) welcoming US negotiator Thomas Barrack at the presidential palace of Baabda east of Beirut. (Photo by Lebanese Presidency / AFP)

The US special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack on Thursday warned Hezbollah against getting involved in the war between its main backer Iran and Israel.

"I can say on behalf of President (Donald) Trump... that would be a very, very, very bad decision," Barrack said, responding to a question on what the US position would be on any involvement by Hezbollah in the war.

Barrack met with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace and Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain el-Tineh.

Hezbollah has condemned Israel's strikes on Iran and expressed full solidarity with its leadership.

Hezbollah on Thursday expressed support for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei following threats by Israeli leaders that he could be killed.

In a statement, Hezbollah said that “threats to assassinate (Khamenei) are foolish and reckless, and will have disastrous consequences.”

But the group has stopped short of making explicit threats to intervene.

Israel's defense minister said Thursday that Khamenei "can no longer be allowed to exist" after an Israeli hospital was hit during an Iranian missile attack.

"Khamenei openly declares that he wants Israel destroyed -- he personally gives the order to fire on hospitals. He considers the destruction of the state of Israel to be a goal," Israel Katz told journalists in Holon near Tel Aviv. "Such a man can no longer be allowed to exist."

Killing Khamenei would "end the conflict" between Israel and Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said.