Asharq Al-Awsat Reveals Russia’s Moves Before Assad’s Downfall

People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
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Asharq Al-Awsat Reveals Russia’s Moves Before Assad’s Downfall

People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)
People in Damascus celebrate on December 9, 2024, after opposition fighters declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had no choice but to act fast. Russia urgently advised him to launch a political initiative to open dialogue with the opposition and prevent the start of Operation “Deterring Aggression.”

After the attack began, Moscow had accurate details on its timing, size, and targets. By then, it was too late.

Moscow quickly decided to arrange a safe exit to avoid a destructive sectarian war, which would have had catastrophic consequences, said Rami Shaar, a close advisor to Russian officials.

Shaar told Asharq Al-Awsat that Russia’s intelligence on the planned large-scale attack led to urgent action 48 hours before it began. Using “specialized channels,” Russian officials warned Syria that “armed factions would advance towards Aleppo and other cities.”

He added that urgent talks with Türkiye and Iran aimed to stop the attack and push for political dialogue. However, it soon became clear that the factions were determined to proceed.

Shaar explained that Moscow’s decision was difficult because intelligence showed that the attack wasn’t just backed by the factions, but also by broad popular support.

According to the reports, “If the attack advances widely, around 80% of Syrians will strongly support it.”

Shaar told Asharq Al-Awsat that, in a bid to avoid major consequences, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran discussed ways to prevent a destructive conflict. Moscow’s intelligence also showed widespread discontent in the Syrian army, worsened by poor living conditions for soldiers and officers.

The close advisor to Russian officials explained that these factors led Russia to prioritize stopping a collapse that could trigger a civil war.

Russia made a direct call to Assad, warning that “all signs point to a major disaster, and a political initiative for dialogue must be launched quickly.”

However, according to Shaar, “Assad did not respond as urgently as needed.”

Shaar added that by then, opposition forces had already moved toward Aleppo, gaining significant local support, while the army had to gradually withdraw, allowing the opposition to take control of the city.



Israel’s Army Says It Will Fire Air Force Reservists Who Condemned Gaza War

An Israeli army vehicle moves in the Gaza Strip as seen from southern Israel, Jan. 16, 2025. (AP)
An Israeli army vehicle moves in the Gaza Strip as seen from southern Israel, Jan. 16, 2025. (AP)
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Israel’s Army Says It Will Fire Air Force Reservists Who Condemned Gaza War

An Israeli army vehicle moves in the Gaza Strip as seen from southern Israel, Jan. 16, 2025. (AP)
An Israeli army vehicle moves in the Gaza Strip as seen from southern Israel, Jan. 16, 2025. (AP)

Israel's military said Friday it will fire air force reservists who signed an open letter that condemns the war in Gaza for only serving political interests instead of bringing the hostages home.

In a statement to The Associated Press, an army official said there was no room for any individual, including reservists on active duty, “to exploit their military status while simultaneously participating in the fighting,” calling the letter a breach of trust between commanders and subordinates.

The army said it had decided that any active reservist who signed the letter will not be able to continue serving. It did not specify how many people that included or if the firings had begun.

Nearly 1,000 Israeli Air Force reservists and retirees signed the letter, published in Israeli media Thursday, demanding the immediate return of the hostages, even at the cost of ending the fighting.

The letter comes as Israel ramps up its offensive in Gaza, trying to pressure Hamas to agree to free hostages, 59 of whom are still being held, more than half of which are dead. Israel's imposed a blockade on food, fuel and humanitarian aid that has left civilians facing acute shortages as supplies dwindle. It has pledged to seize large parts of the Palestinian territory and establish a new security corridor through it.

While the soldiers who signed the letter didn’t refuse to keep serving, it’s part of a growing number of Israeli soldiers speaking out against the 18-month conflict, some saying they saw or did things that crossed ethical lines.

“It’s completely illogical and irresponsible on behalf of the Israeli policy makers ... risking the lives of the hostages, risking the lives of more soldiers and risking lives of many, many more innocent Palestinians, while it had a very clear alternative,” Guy Poran, a retired Israeli Air Force pilot who spearhead the letter told The AP.

He said he's not aware of anyone who signed the letter being fired, and since it was published, it has gained dozens more signatures.

Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu downplayed the letter on Friday, saying it was written by a “small handful of weeds, operated by foreign-funded NGOs whose sole goal is to overthrow the right-wing government.” He said anyone who encourages refusal will be immediately dismissed.

Soldiers are required to steer clear of politics, and they rarely speak out against the army. After Hamas stormed into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel quickly united behind the war launched against the group. Divisions here have grown as the war progresses, but most criticism has focused on the mounting number of soldiers killed and the failure to bring home hostages, not actions in Gaza.

The war in Gaza shows no signs of slowing.

Since Israel ended an eight-week ceasefire last month, it said it will push further into Gaza until Hamas releases the hostages. More than 1,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the ceasefire collapsed, according to the United Nations.

The Israeli military on Friday issued an urgent warning to residents in several neighborhoods in northern Gaza, calling on them to evacuate immediately. At least 26 people have been killed and more than 100 others wounded in the last 24 hours, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which doesn't distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Palestinians lined up at a charity kitchen Friday in central Gaza said shortages of food, fuel and other essentials are worsening.

“There is no flour or gas or wood. Everything is expensive and there is no money," said Reem Oweis, a displaced woman from al-Mughraqa in south Gaza, waiting in line for a serving of rice, the only food available.

“I completely rely on charity kitchens. If those charity kitchens close, my children and I will die,” said another displace woman, Nema Faragallah.

Also this week, Brazil's Embassy in the West Bank said it had requested the immediate release of the body of a 17-year-old Palestinian prisoner who died in Israeli custody.

A representative from Brazil's office in Ramallah, told the AP it was helping the family speed up the process to bring Walid Ahmad's body home. Ahmad had a Brazilian passport.

According to an Israeli doctor who observed the autopsy, starvation was likely the primary cause of his death.

Ahmad had been held for six months without being charged. He was extremely malnourished and also showed signs of inflammation of the colon and scabies, said a report written by Dr. Daniel Solomon, who watched the autopsy, conducted by Israeli experts, at the request of the boy’s family.

Israel’s prison service said it operates according to the law and all prisoners are given basic rights.