Al-Sudani to Bring ‘Black Box’ to Tehran

A handout picture released by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units at the oil refinery of Baiji. (Photo by IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE / AFP)
A handout picture released by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units at the oil refinery of Baiji. (Photo by IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE / AFP)
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Al-Sudani to Bring ‘Black Box’ to Tehran

A handout picture released by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units at the oil refinery of Baiji. (Photo by IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE / AFP)
A handout picture released by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units at the oil refinery of Baiji. (Photo by IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE / AFP)

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has postponed his visit to Iran until next week.

Sources say he will discuss key regional and internal issues, including the disbanding of Iran-backed militias in Iraq, and may deliver “strong warnings” from the US about restricting weapons to state control.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said the visit aims to strengthen ties and discuss regional developments. Al-Sudani will hold talks with top Iranian officials during his trip.

The Iraqi government has not confirmed or denied the reports, but concerns are rising in both Iraq and Iran.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has recently addressed issues related to the “Axis of Resistance” following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Unconfirmed reports in Baghdad say Iraq received a “warning” from US President-elect Donald Trump.

Ammar al-Hakim, leader of the National Wisdom Movement, revealed some details on Thursday. The message, which marked a shift in US policy, may have been delivered by a secret envoy or through a phone call from Trump.

Al-Hakim, a prominent figure in the Shiite Coordination Framework, confirmed that the US administration is targeting certain Iraqi armed factions.

However, he stressed that the incoming Trump administration has no intention of overthrowing the Iranian regime or destabilizing the political system in Iraq.

“A decision will be made against the factions... This is what we’ve heard from the US and some groups in the Coordination Framework with armed factions,” said al-Hakim at a gathering in Najaf, south of Baghdad.

“This is not aimed at the Coordination Framework as a political force but at Iran-backed armed factions like Kataib Hezbollah and al-Nujaba,” he clarified.

On rumors of a political change in Iraq, al-Hakim said: “This is circulating on social media, but I haven’t heard it from international or regional politicians or in talks with official delegations after the events in Syria.”

Al-Hakim also reassured that there is an “international will” to avoid targeting Iraq’s political system.

“The goal is to maintain Iraq’s stability because chaos there would disrupt regional security, which neighboring countries reject. The current system is expected to remain,” he affirmed.

With al-Hakim’s reassurance about the political system staying intact but without armed factions, all eyes are on al-Sudani’s upcoming visit to Tehran.

He is expected to carry a “black box” discussing the disbanding of militias. While the decision to limit weapons to the state is Iraqi, many militias are ideologically tied to Iran, which calls for direct talks with Tehran.



Iraq's Kurdish Oil Exports Restart is Not Imminent

An oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan. Photo: Kurdistan government media/AFP
An oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan. Photo: Kurdistan government media/AFP
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Iraq's Kurdish Oil Exports Restart is Not Imminent

An oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan. Photo: Kurdistan government media/AFP
An oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan. Photo: Kurdistan government media/AFP

A restart of Iraq's Kurdish oil exports is not imminent, sources close to the matter said on Friday, despite Iraq's federal government saying on Thursday that shipments would resume immediately.

Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government have been in negotiations since February to end a stand-off that has halted flows from the north of the country to Türkiye's port of Ceyhan. The KRG was producing about 435,000 barrels per day (bpd) before the pipeline closure in March 2023, Reuters reported.

On Thursday the federal government said that Iraqi Kurdistan would resume oil exports immediately through the pipeline to Türkiye's despite drone attacks that have shut down half of the region's output.

But on Friday a source at APIKUR, a group of oil companies working in Kurdistan, said that a restart depended on the receipt of written agreements. Another at KAR Group, which operates the pipeline, said that no preparations had been made for a restart.

Baghdad and the companies have not yet agreed how to restart the exports, a KRG government source said, while a source at Türkiye's Ceyhan said there was also no preparation at the terminal for a restart of flows.

On Thursday, a statement from KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani said the government had approved a joint understanding with the federal government and it was awaiting financial details.

Similar agreements in the past failed to secure a resumption in exports and it remains unclear if this deal will succeed.

Oil companies working in Kurdistan have previously demanded that their production-sharing contracts should remain unchanged and their debts of nearly $1 billion be settled under any agreement.

Oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan have been attacked by drones this week, with officials pointing to Iran-backed militias as the likely source of the attacks, although no group has claimed responsibility.

They are the first such attacks on oilfields in the region and coincide with the first attacks in seven months on shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen.

On Thursday a strike hit an oilfield operated by Norway's DNO in Tawke, the region's counter-terrorism service said.

It was the week's second strike on a site operated by DNO, which operates the Tawke and Peshkabour oilfields in the Zakho area that borders Türkiye.

No casualties have been reported, but oil output in the region has been cut by between 140,000 bpd and 150,000 bpd, two energy officials said.