Israel’s retaliation to rockets fired towards it from Lebanon on Saturday is part of its efforts to lure the country into normalizing relations.
Israel is aiming to lure Lebanon towards holding political negotiations in violation of the ceasefire agreement sponsored by the United States and France and which led to the formation of the quintet that is overseeing its implementation.
Lebanon’s parliament Speaker Nabih Berri told Asharq Al-Awsat that the political negotiations and normalization of ties “are out of the question for us.”
The ceasefire agreement enjoys international, Arab and UN backing, he noted. “We are implementing it and respecting it in full. Israel is the one who is obstructing its implementation.”
Moreover, the Lebanese army is fully prepared to complete its deployment south of the Litani River, “but Israel is refusing to withdraw from several areas, which has prevented the military from deploying at the border,” he remarked.
“Hezbollah is committed to the agreement and has not obstructed it. It has withdrawn from areas south of the Litani and has not fired a single shot in six months even though Israel has been repeatedly violating the deal,” he stressed, citing its attacks on the South, Bekaa and border between Lebanon and Syria.
“Hezbollah is refraining from responding to the Israeli violation of the ceasefire and is exercising restraint. It is standing behind the Lebanese state as it implements and consolidates the ceasefire,” Berri told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Meanwhile, Asharq Al-Awsat learned that deputy US envoy to the region Morgan Ortagus is expected to travel to Israel in the coming hours to hold talks with its leaders.
Discussions will involve drafting a roadmap for kicking off the implementation of three issues she had brought up previously related to the release of Lebanese prisoners, withdrawal of Israel from Lebanese territories and demarcation of the border between the countries.
A visit to Beirut hinges on whether she reaches an understanding with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior officials on the broad lines of the implementation of the agreement.
Hezbollah’s options
Primitive rockets, “more like sound bombs”, were fired at Israel on Saturday, a Lebanese source told Asharq Al-Awsat. Israel shot them down even before they flew over the border. Even if they had reached their target, they would not have caused any damage.
But Israel chose to retaliate broadly in an attempt to pressure Lebanon into holding direct negotiations with it, the source explained.
Israel doesn’t need an excuse to justify its violations against Lebanon. It used the rocket fire to continue to assassinate Hezbollah members who are still on its list of targets, it added.
Moreover, the source dismissed claimed that the broad Israeli response was aimed at warning Hezbollah against again resorting to opening a support front in the South in solidarity with Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.
Hezbollah has no intention to reignite the conflict in the South, stressed the source. It is too busy still assessing the consequences of its decision to open the support front for Gaza in October 2023 that led to the war with Israel last year.
The Iran-backed party is still assessing how Israel managed to assassinate its top political and military leaders, continued the source.
Hezbollah officials’ continued commitment to the “army, people and resistance” equation is nothing more than a political slogan that carries no weight as long as the party continues to stand behind the state, which is banking on diplomacy to consolidate the ceasefire, it said.
Furthermore, Hezbollah has to also take into consideration the sentiment among its own Shiite popular base, many of whom have been unable to return to their destroyed villages on the border with Israel, it remarked.
In addition, Hezbollah no longer has the military capabilities that could allow it to open the southern front against Israel yet again, the source went on to say.
So, the party has no choice but to realistically approach the situation in the South, steering clear of populist slogans, and taking into account the massive imbalance in power with Israel.
Hezbollah effectively can no longer ignore the international community’s insistence that it lay down its weapons and limit their possession to the state. The international community did not once condemn Israel for its retaliation to Saturday’s rocket fire, noted the source.
The party will have no choice but to opt for diplomacy - led by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam - to make Israel withdraw from remaining Lebanese territories.
