Lebanese sources question the United States’ absence from Lebanon’s political and diplomatic scene, arguing that this has allowed Israel to escalate its violations of the ceasefire agreement.
They say that this disengagement has freed Israel’s hand to assassinate Hezbollah figures—most recently Hassan Badr—and conduct airstrikes on towns north of the Litani River.
The situation has been further complicated by the US-driven suspension of the international monitoring committee overseeing the ceasefire. This is tied to Lebanon’s reluctance to form three committees requested by US envoy Morgan Ortagus, addressing Lebanese prisoners in Israel, the Israeli withdrawal from occupied points, and border demarcation, including 13 disputed areas.
The political circles in Lebanon now anticipate Ortagus’ visit, during which she will meet key officials, including President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
Israel, emboldened by US support, continues military pressure on Lebanon, raising concerns that it seeks to enforce UN Resolution 1701 through force to push Lebanon into negotiations that could lead to normalization.
There is speculation that Israel aims to trade normalization for a demilitarized zone extending beyond South Lebanon to include areas north of the Litani River, eliminating Hezbollah’s military presence there. However, Aoun has emphasized Lebanon’s defense strategy, which aims to ensure the state’s exclusive control over weapons across the entire country.
Sources suggest Hezbollah must adopt a pragmatic approach and support Lebanon’s diplomatic push rather than relying on military rhetoric. However, in a recent speech, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem reaffirmed the group’s commitment to resistance and warned of open-ended options if diplomacy fails. This stance appears contradictory, as Hezbollah has recently shifted toward diplomatic engagement, especially given Israel’s current advantage in deterrence and rules of engagement.
In contrast, Aoun and Salam have actively pushed for US intervention to enforce Israel’s withdrawal and implement Resolution 1701.
Israel’s occupation of several points has blocked the Lebanese Army’s deployment alongside UNIFIL to the international border. Blaming Lebanon for failing to comply with international resolutions is unfair when Israel continues its violations. The international monitoring committee has even praised the Lebanese Army’s efforts in implementing the ceasefire agreement.
Lebanese sources reject claims that Washington blames Aoun and Salam for not adhering to their commitments. They argue that Israel’s violations are the primary issue, not Lebanon’s policies.
Salam’s position on ending non-state weapons and moving beyond the “army, people, and resistance” formula was welcomed by Washington but rejected by Hezbollah, which continues to use the rhetoric for political mobilization.
Sources stress that Aoun’s refusal to negotiate normalization with Israel aligns with Lebanon’s political consensus. During his visit to Paris, he emphasized that border talks should follow the same diplomatic protocols used in previous maritime negotiations.
Meanwhile, intelligence reports suggest that Hezbollah was not involved in the recent rocket attacks on Israel, reinforcing Speaker Nabih Berri’s statement that these incidents may have been orchestrated by Israel for strategic purposes.
Security agencies are close to uncovering the truth, with Lebanese and Palestinian suspects under investigation.
