Fitch Places United States' 'AAA' on Rating Watch Negative

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Fitch Places United States' 'AAA' on Rating Watch Negative

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Ratings agency Fitch put the United States' credit on watch for a possible downgrade on Wednesday.

Fitch put the country's "AAA" rating, its highest rank, on a negative watch in a precursor to a possible downgrade should lawmakers fail to raise the amount that the Treasury can borrow before it runs out of money, which could happen as soon as next week, according to Reuters.

President Joe Biden's administration and congressional Republicans are at an impasse over raising the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, and Fitch said its rating could be lowered if the US does not raise or suspend its debt limit in time.

"Fitch still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the X-date," the credit agency said in a report.

"However, we believe risks have risen that the debt limit will not be raised or suspended before the X-date and consequently that the government could begin to miss payments on some of its obligations."

Fitch said that the failure to reach a deal "would be a negative signal of the broader governance and willingness of the US to honor its obligations in a timely fashion," and would be unlikely to be consistent with a "AAA" rating.

The "rating watch" indicates that there is a heightened probability of a rating change and the likely direction of such a change, and is different from a "ratings outlook" which indicates the direction a rating is likely to move over a one- to two-year period.

Fitch now predicts that the US government will spend more than it earns, creating a deficit of 6.5% of the country's total economy in 2023 and 6.9% in 2024.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.