Saudi Efforts to Protect Oil Producers from Shrinking Global Economic Growth

An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Efforts to Protect Oil Producers from Shrinking Global Economic Growth

An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Saudi government's voluntarily reducing its output to nine million barrels per day (bpd) represents significant to support the global market and protect producers and consumers, economic analysts told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The experts emphasized the importance of a unified OPEC+ decision and the voluntary production decline in line with the capabilities of many oil-producing countries.

- Market protection

Advisor and international law professor Osama al-Obaidi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the decision of the OPEC+ group seeks to protect price stability from severe fluctuations that harm producers and consumers alike.

Obaidi said the decision limits the contraction of global economic growth, noting that the extreme price fluctuation leads to a decline in oil production efficiency and consumption.

The expert noted that OPEC+ countries needed to defend their market share and achieve stability.

- Global Economy

Obaidi said that the OPEC+ policy, led by Saudi Arabia, balanced international markets and enhanced the stability of the global economy.

Saudi Arabia's efforts are essential to eliminate extreme fluctuations in the oil market to prevent a decline in global demand and support market stability and balance, said Obaidi.

He indicated that the Kingdom, with its voluntary reduction with the member states of OPEC+, succeeded in reducing price fluctuations and ensured the availability of sufficient supplies to global markets.

- Distributive justice

Economist Fahd bin Jumaa noted that appointing impartial bodies to monitor OPEC+ production is an advanced and unprecedented step that achieves fair distribution of production lines and determines the reduction transparently.

Bin Juma told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia's reduction of its production by one million bpd starting next July confirms the correct outlook for global markets to maintain oil stability.

- Precautionary efforts

An official source in the Saudi Ministry of Energy said that after the OPEC+ meeting, the Kingdom would implement an additional voluntary cut in its crude oil production, amounting to one million bpd, starting in July for a month that can be extended.

The Saudi production will become nine million bpd, and the Kingdom's total voluntary cut will be 1.5 million bpd.

The source explained that the Kingdom's additional voluntary cut reinforces the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries to support the stability and balance of oil markets.

In addition to extending the existing OPEC+ cuts of 3.66 million bpd, the group also agreed to reduce overall production targets from January 2024 by a further 1.4 million bpd versus current targets to a combined 40.46 million bpd.



Saudi Arabia’s Private Sector Ends 2024 with Strongest Sales Growth

 The Saudi capital, Riyadh (AFP)
 The Saudi capital, Riyadh (AFP)
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Saudi Arabia’s Private Sector Ends 2024 with Strongest Sales Growth

 The Saudi capital, Riyadh (AFP)
 The Saudi capital, Riyadh (AFP)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector concluded 2024 on a high note, with significant increases in sales and business activity fueled by robust domestic and international demand.
The Kingdom’s non-oil GDP is expected to grow by over 4% in both 2024 and 2025, supported by notable improvements in business conditions, according to Riyad Bank’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report.
Despite inflationary challenges, the Riyad Bank PMI recorded 58.4 points in December, reflecting strong and accelerated economic recovery, albeit slightly lower than November’s 59.0 points.
The solid performance highlights improvements across non-oil sectors, with new business activity in December growing at its fastest pace in 12 months. This growth reflects rising domestic and global demand. Renewed marketing efforts and strong customer demand encouraged companies to boost production and expand operations, particularly in wholesale and retail.
The PMI has remained above the neutral threshold of 50.0 points since September 2020, signaling continuous expansion in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economic activity.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) previously projected sustained momentum in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil reforms, estimating non-oil GDP growth for 2024 at between 3.9% and 4.4%. The IMF noted that growth could reach 8% if reform strategies are fully implemented.
Expansion in International Markets
A surge in exports was among the key factors driving non-oil economic growth in Saudi Arabia. December saw the largest increase in export orders in 17 months, underscoring the success of Saudi policies in opening new markets and fostering strong international trade relationships, supported by ongoing product innovation.
Higher domestic and international demand boosted production levels in December. Companies also worked to enhance operational efficiency, leading to a notable increase in inventory. Purchasing activity accelerated to its highest level in nine months, reflecting the sector’s ability to effectively meet rising demand.
Cost Pressures on Production
Despite significant growth in production and sales, the sector continues to face challenges related to sharp inflation in input costs, driven by heightened demand for raw materials. These pressures have led to higher product prices, although some companies opted to reduce prices to remain competitive and address elevated inventory levels.
Meanwhile, wage cost increases were less pronounced, helping mitigate economic pressures related to salaries.
Future Outlook
Dr. Naif Al-Ghaith, Chief Economist at Riyad Bank, highlighted the positive end to 2024 for the Kingdom’s non-oil private sector, reflecting the progress achieved under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. He noted that the PMI score of 58.4 points demonstrates the sector’s resilience and ongoing expansion.
Al-Ghaith expects non-oil GDP to grow by over 4% in 2024 and 2025, driven by improved business conditions and rising new orders, signaling increased market confidence and demand. Elevated domestic demand and export growth have pushed total sales to their highest level in a year. This, in turn, has led to strong increases in business activity and inventory levels, demonstrating the sector’s ability to meet and capitalize on excess demand, he underlined.