Saudi Efforts to Protect Oil Producers from Shrinking Global Economic Growth

An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Efforts to Protect Oil Producers from Shrinking Global Economic Growth

An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Saudi government's voluntarily reducing its output to nine million barrels per day (bpd) represents significant to support the global market and protect producers and consumers, economic analysts told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The experts emphasized the importance of a unified OPEC+ decision and the voluntary production decline in line with the capabilities of many oil-producing countries.

- Market protection

Advisor and international law professor Osama al-Obaidi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the decision of the OPEC+ group seeks to protect price stability from severe fluctuations that harm producers and consumers alike.

Obaidi said the decision limits the contraction of global economic growth, noting that the extreme price fluctuation leads to a decline in oil production efficiency and consumption.

The expert noted that OPEC+ countries needed to defend their market share and achieve stability.

- Global Economy

Obaidi said that the OPEC+ policy, led by Saudi Arabia, balanced international markets and enhanced the stability of the global economy.

Saudi Arabia's efforts are essential to eliminate extreme fluctuations in the oil market to prevent a decline in global demand and support market stability and balance, said Obaidi.

He indicated that the Kingdom, with its voluntary reduction with the member states of OPEC+, succeeded in reducing price fluctuations and ensured the availability of sufficient supplies to global markets.

- Distributive justice

Economist Fahd bin Jumaa noted that appointing impartial bodies to monitor OPEC+ production is an advanced and unprecedented step that achieves fair distribution of production lines and determines the reduction transparently.

Bin Juma told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia's reduction of its production by one million bpd starting next July confirms the correct outlook for global markets to maintain oil stability.

- Precautionary efforts

An official source in the Saudi Ministry of Energy said that after the OPEC+ meeting, the Kingdom would implement an additional voluntary cut in its crude oil production, amounting to one million bpd, starting in July for a month that can be extended.

The Saudi production will become nine million bpd, and the Kingdom's total voluntary cut will be 1.5 million bpd.

The source explained that the Kingdom's additional voluntary cut reinforces the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries to support the stability and balance of oil markets.

In addition to extending the existing OPEC+ cuts of 3.66 million bpd, the group also agreed to reduce overall production targets from January 2024 by a further 1.4 million bpd versus current targets to a combined 40.46 million bpd.



Saudi Arabia Begins Marketing International Bonds Following 2025 Borrowing Plan Announcement

Riyadh (Reuters)
Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Arabia Begins Marketing International Bonds Following 2025 Borrowing Plan Announcement

Riyadh (Reuters)
Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia has entered global debt markets with a planned sale of bonds in three tranches, aiming to use the proceeds to cover budget deficits and repay outstanding debt, according to IFR (International Financing Review).

The indicative pricing for the three-year bonds is set at 120 basis points above US Treasury bonds, while the six- and ten-year bonds are priced at 130 and 140 basis points above US Treasuries, respectively, as reported by Reuters.

The bonds, expected to be of benchmark size (typically at least $500 million), come a day after Saudi Arabia unveiled its 2025 borrowing plan. The Kingdom’s financing needs for the year are estimated at SAR 139 billion ($37 billion), with SAR 101 billion ($26.8 billion) allocated to cover the budget deficit and the remainder to service existing debt.

The National Debt Management Center (NDMC) announced that Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan had approved the 2025 borrowing plan following its endorsement by the NDMC Board. The plan highlights public debt developments for 2024, domestic debt market initiatives, and the 2025 financing roadmap, including the Kingdom’s issuance calendar for local sukuk denominated in Saudi Riyals.

The NDMC emphasized that Saudi Arabia aims to enhance sustainable access to debt markets and broaden its investor base. For 2025, the Kingdom will continue diversifying its domestic and international financing channels to meet funding needs efficiently. Plans include issuing sovereign debt instruments at fair prices under risk management frameworks and pursuing specialized financing opportunities to support economic growth, such as export credit agency-backed funding, infrastructure development financing, and exploring new markets and currencies.

Recently, Saudi Arabia secured a $2.5 billion Sharia-compliant revolving credit facility for three years from three regional and international financial institutions to address budgetary needs.

In 2024, Saudi Arabia issued $17 billion in dollar-denominated bonds, including $12 billion in January and $5 billion in sukuk in May. Rating agencies have recognized the Kingdom’s financial stability. In November, Moody’s upgraded Saudi Arabia’s rating to “AA3,” while Fitch assigned an “A+” rating, both with stable outlooks. S&P Global rated the Kingdom at “A/A-1” with a positive outlook, reflecting its low credit risk and strong capacity to meet financial obligations.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated Saudi Arabia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio at 26.2% for 2024, describing it as low and sustainable. The IMF projects this ratio to reach 35% by 2029, with foreign borrowing playing a significant role in financing fiscal deficits.