Russia Back in Investors’ Focus after Weekend Mutiny

Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)
Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)
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Russia Back in Investors’ Focus after Weekend Mutiny

Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)
Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)

Some investors were watching for ripple effects from an aborted mutiny in Russia on Saturday, expecting a move into safe havens such as US government bonds and the dollar when markets open later on Sunday.

Heavily armed Russian mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former ally of President Vladimir Putin and founder of the Wagner army, advanced most of the way to Moscow after capturing the city of Rostov, but then halted their approach, de-escalating a major challenge.

On Saturday night, they began withdrawing from the Rostov military headquarters they had seized, a Reuters witness said.

Financial markets have often been volatile since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which caused ruptures in markets and through global finance as banks and investors rushed to unwind exposure.

After Saturday's events, some investors said they were focused on the potential impact to safe-haven assets such as US Treasuries and on commodities prices, as Russia is a major energy supplier.

"It certainly remains to be seen what happens in the next day or two, but if there remains uncertainty about leadership in Russia, investors may flock to safe havens," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.

Goldberg said that despite the de-escalation, "investors may remain nervous about subsequent instability, and could remain cautious."

The action sparked attention globally, and revived an old fear in Washington about what happens to Russia's nuclear stockpile in the event of domestic upheaval.

"Markets typically do not respond well to events that are unfolding and are uncertain," particularly relating to Putin and Russia, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

"If the uncertainty escalates, you're going to see Treasuries get a bid, gold will get a bid and the Japanese yen tends to gain in situations like this," Krosby said, mentioning typical safe-haven assets that investors buy when risks rise.

Alastair Winter, Global Investment Strategist at Argyll Europe said that while the de-escalation meant markets may now not react much, "Putin has clearly been weakened and there will be more developments."

He saw the US dollar finding "some support as the market returns to speculating over rate hikes and cuts and recession in different economies."

Stocks have been on a mostly upward path in recent months, which some said could make them more vulnerable to a selloff. Year-to-date the S&P 500 is up 13%, although it has lost steam in recent days with interest rates in focus. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave testimony last week in which he signaled more interest rate hikes ahead.

Some saw little reaction as the situation seemed defused. Rich Steinberg, chief market strategist at the Colony Group in Boca Raton, Florida, said that "markets will kind of treat this as another geopolitical risk" and "some frayed nerves were calmed in the short run" by the de-escalation.



EUROPE GAS-Prices Continue to Decline

Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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EUROPE GAS-Prices Continue to Decline

Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices continued to declined on Tuesday morning on milder weather forecasts for next week, high wind speeds and stable supply.

The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub was down 0.61 euros at 46.65 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) at 0947 GMT, according to LSEG data.

The contract for March was down 0.52 euro at 46.63 euros/MWh.

In Britain, the front-month contract fell by 2.04 pence to 116.76 pence per therm.

In north-west Europe, although another cold snap is forecast from Friday over the weekend, the latest forecasts are showing milder temperatures than yesterday from Jan. 15, according to LSEG data, Reuters reported.

Wind speeds are expected to remain quite strong today, limiting gas demand.

However, in north-west Europe, gas-for-power demand is expected 36 million cubic metres (mcm) per day higher at 78 mcm/day on the day-ahead.

"Wind speeds are expected still high today, before dropping sharply tomorrow with the cold spell arriving," said LSEG gas analyst Saku Jussila.

In Britain, Peak wind generation is forecast at around 15.1 gigawatts (GW) today and 14.7 GW tomorrow, Elexon data showed.

Analysts at Engie EnergyScan said EU net storage withdrawals have slowed due to a more comfortable spot balance but the storage gap compared to last year remains high. On 5 January, EU gas stocks were 69.94% full on average, compared to 84.96% last year.

Looking further ahead, analysts at Jefferies expect a tight year for global gas markets due to project delays and higher-than-expected demand.

"European and Asian LNG spot gas prices in 2025 could surpass those of 2024, driven by Europe's increased gas injection needs and the loss of Russian exports outpacing the expected growth in global LNG supply," they said.

"Post 2025, the market is expected to loosen with an additional 175 million tonnes of new supply coming online between 2026 and 2030, primarily from the US and Qatar," they added.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was down 0.91 euro at 73.45 euros a metric ton.