Oil Climbs, Rouble Falls as Markets Take Mutiny in Stride

FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates in front of a drilling rig at sunset in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates in front of a drilling rig at sunset in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Oil Climbs, Rouble Falls as Markets Take Mutiny in Stride

FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates in front of a drilling rig at sunset in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates in front of a drilling rig at sunset in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

Oil was slightly higher on Monday and the rouble lower as an abortive weekend mutiny by Russian mercenaries raised questions about Russian stability and crude supply, but left investors hesitant to draw any further conclusions.

Brent crude futures were last up 0.2% at $74.02 a barrel having earlier fetched as much as $74.80. The rouble dropped to a 15-month low early in Moscow, Reuters said.

MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped to a three-week low, as small falls in China, Taiwan and Australia offset minor gains in South Korea.

Japan's Nikkei eased 0.1%. The battered yen rose marginally on hints at looming government intervention to support it and after a summary showing a central bank board called for an early revision of yield curve control.

European futures gained 0.3%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and FTSE futures added 0.1%.

Russian mercenaries made a short-lived rebellion on Saturday, seizing the southern city of Rostov and advancing on Moscow demanding the removal of Russian military commanders in charge of the war in Ukraine.

The private Wagner army then withdrew after striking a deal guaranteeing their safety and the passage of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus.

The consequences for the Ukraine war were not clear, though the challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority was the starkest in decades of his leadership.

"I don't think the market can get its head around working out if there are implications," said Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said one concern was the possibility of martial law in Russia and its effect on the workforce at ports and oil production facilities.

Gold, which had hit a three-month low on Friday, rose 0.2% to $1,925 an ounce. US Treasuries were firm with yields, which fall when prices rise, marginally lower.

Two-year yields fell 2 basis points to 4.731%. Ten-year yields fell 1.8 bps to 3.721%.

"This putsch ... has revealed cracks and fragilities that now cannot be unseen," said Mizuho economist Vishnu Varathan.

"It undeniably amplifies global geopolitical risks."

CHINA FOCUS

With the mutiny being on the watchlist rather than driving action in Asia, investors were left to pore over the latest signs of China's recovery stalling, which on Monday was softer-than-hoped-for travel figures for last week's holiday.

S&P Global also followed most Wall Street banks and cut its 2023 GDP growth forecast for China on Sunday.

Blue chip stocks fell 0.7% in Shanghai.

The yuan slid to catch up offshore falls during the break on Thursday and Friday, but the People's Bank of China fixed the midpoint of its trading band surprisingly strong, suggesting it might not be so tolerant of further weakness.

The yuan was last at a seven-month low of 7.2199 per dollar.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was steady at $0.6683. The euro nursed last week's modest drop at $1.0903 and sterling held at $1.2730.

The yen, down nearly 9% this year as global interest rate expectations rise and Japan's central bank stays dovish, bounced as much as 0.3% to 143.27 per dollar, partly thanks to speculation around intervention or a policy shift.

Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda toughened his tone on Monday, describing recent moves as "rapid and one-sided" in a possible prelude to intervening to buy yen.

A Bank of Japan policymaker also called for revision to its yield curve control policy, a summary of opinions at the June meeting showed on Monday, suggesting the central bank's ultra-loose monetary settings may be at a crossroads.



The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
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The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)

Syria faces significant challenges as discussions intensify about the post-Bashar al-Assad era, particularly in securing the necessary revenues for the Syrian interim government to meet the country’s needs and ensure its sustainability. The widespread destruction of the economy and infrastructure poses a dual challenge: rebuilding the nation while stimulating economic activity and ensuring sufficient financial resources for governance.

Currently, the interim government relies heavily on international and regional support during the transitional phase. Donor countries are expected to provide financial and technical assistance to help rebuild institutions and alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people.

However, as the country transitions, external support alone will not suffice. The government must identify sustainable revenue sources, such as managing natural resources, imposing taxes, and encouraging foreign investments.

Opportunities from the Syrian Diaspora

The Syrian diaspora is seen as a significant economic resource, contributing through remittances or involvement in reconstruction projects. However, realizing these opportunities requires the establishment of strong, transparent institutions, effective resource management, and a clear strategic plan to rebuild trust with both local and international communities.

Securing revenues for the interim government is not merely a financial challenge but also a test of its ability to lead Syria toward stability and prosperity.

Securing Economic Resources

Nasser Zuhair, head of the Economic and Diplomatic Affairs Unit at the European Policy Organization, stated that the interim government, currently led by Mohammed al-Bashir, may replicate its revenue-generating models from Idlib. Resources in Idlib were drawn from temporary measures that are insufficient for sustaining a national economy like Syria’s.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Zuhair explained that these resources included taxation, fuel trade with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled areas, international aid for displaced persons in Idlib, remittances from the Syrian diaspora, and cross-border trade facilitated by Turkiye.

“The interim government believes that sanctions relief is a matter of months, after which it can begin to establish a sustainable economy. For now, it will rely on the same resources and strategies used in Idlib and other controlled areas,” Zuhair added.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the former regime’s reliance on illicit revenues, such as drug trafficking and Captagon production—estimated to account for 25% of government revenues—the interim government has several potential avenues for generating revenue.

International Aid

Zuhair emphasized that cross-border humanitarian aid indirectly supports local economies. “The current government understands that international and regional aid will be substantial in the coming period, particularly for refugee repatriation and infrastructure development,” he noted.

He added that efforts to secure funding from the Brussels Conference, which allocates about $7 billion annually to support Syria, will be critical. Strengthening ties with regional and European countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Germany, and the UK, is also a priority. However, securing such aid depends on establishing a political framework where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) does not dominate governance.

He further noted that international and regional support will likely remain a key revenue source for the interim government, including humanitarian and developmental aid from organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank.

Taxes and Tariffs

Zuhair highlighted taxes and tariffs as essential components of the government’s revenue strategy. This includes taxing local economic activities, customs duties on cross-border trade, and fair taxes on merchants and industrialists in major cities like Damascus and Aleppo.

“The government can also impose income, corporate, and property taxes while improving border management to maximize revenue from customs and tariffs,” he added.

Agriculture and Natural Resources

Syria’s vast and fertile agricultural lands present an opportunity for revenue generation, Zuhair underlined, explaining that taxes on agricultural products could contribute to state income. However, this sector faces logistical challenges and high production costs. By directing the agricultural sector toward self-sufficiency, the government could reduce dependence on imports and create surplus revenue, he remarked.

Additionally, managing natural resources such as oil and gas could provide a significant revenue stream if the government gains control over resource-rich areas like northeastern Syria, the official noted.

Reconstruction

Reconstruction presents another potential revenue source. International companies could be encouraged to invest in rebuilding efforts in exchange for fees or taxes. Public-private partnerships with local and foreign firms in sectors such as infrastructure and housing could also generate significant funds.

Remittances from the Diaspora

Zuhair stressed the importance of remittances from Syrians abroad, estimating that these transfers could reach $2 billion annually by 2025. Encouraging the diaspora to send funds to support family members and rebuild properties will be a key priority for the government.

Domestic Investments

The interim government has shown its ability to attract domestic investments in real estate, industry, commerce, and agriculture, despite international sanctions. According to Zuhair, leveraging Türkiye as an international gateway, the government could expand this model across Syria, taking advantage of the challenging economic conditions left by the previous regime to draw reasonable investments in its first year.

Tourism and Small Businesses

Revitalizing the tourism sector could directly contribute to revenue, he added, noting that restoring historical and cultural sites, once security and stability are achieved, will attract visitors and generate income.

In addition, encouraging small and medium-sized enterprises will help revive the economy and create jobs, Zuhair emphasized, pointing that supporting manufacturing industries could provide a sustainable revenue stream.