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Saudi Arabia Maintains Control over Inflation at 2.3%

A food and consumer goods markets in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A food and consumer goods markets in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Maintains Control over Inflation at 2.3%

A food and consumer goods markets in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A food and consumer goods markets in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia’s government has effectively managed to contain inflation, slowing it down to its lowest level in a year, recording 2.3% in July compared to 2.7% in the same month of the previous year.

This was even lower than the 2.7% recorded in June.

The government’s control over the inflation rate is the result of economic measures and actions it swiftly undertook early on to confront the global surge in prices.

Experts interviewed by Asharq Al-Awsat emphasize the significance of the decrease in actual housing rental rates in July, which stood at 10.3 %, down from 10.8 % in June. This factor has played a pivotal role in reining in the inflation rate in the Kingdom.

Notably, housing rental costs constitute the largest sub-category in the consumer price index, accounting for 21 % of the index weight.

Experts also highlight the contributions of government initiatives and programs related to the real estate and housing sector in boosting the supply of real estate products in general, particularly residential apartments.

This has had a direct impact on rental prices. Additionally, the reduction in real estate financing due to the recent interest rate hike by the Saudi Central Bank has also played a role.

Mohammed Makni, a finance and investment professor at the College of Economics and Administrative Sciences at Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, explains that the inflation rate has experienced consecutive declines in the past three months, attributed mainly to the ongoing interest rate hikes by the Saudi Central Bank.

“In July of the previous year, the Federal Reserve decided to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points, and Saudi Arabia followed suit by raising its interest rate by the same level. This reduced the liquidity in the local market and consequently impacted the inflation rate,” Makni told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“According to the latest statistics from the Saudi Central Bank, consumer loans during the second quarter of the current year have witnessed a decrease, reaching 443 billion riyals ($118.1 billion), confirming the Kingdom's approach of draining liquidity from the local market,” he added.

Makni further elucidates that most activities in the Consumer Price Index during July showed a positive change. He anticipated the inflation rate to remain stable around 2% to 2.5% in the coming months, depending on the decisions taken by the US Federal Reserve.

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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo

The US dollar charged ahead on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields, putting the yen, sterling and euro under pressure near multi-month lows amid the shifting threat of tariffs.

The focus for markets in 2025 has been on US President-elect Donald Trump's agenda as he steps back into the White House on Jan. 20, with analysts expecting his policies to both bolster growth and add to price pressures, according to Reuters.

CNN on Wednesday reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a series of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries. On Monday, the Washington Post said Trump was looking at more nuanced tariffs, which he later denied.

Concerns that policies introduced by the Trump administration could reignite inflation has led bond yields higher, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note hitting 4.73% on Wednesday, its highest since April 25. It was at 4.6709% on Thursday.

"Trump's shifting narrative on tariffs has undoubtedly had an effect on USD. It seems this capriciousness is something markets will have to adapt to over the coming four years," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets.

The bond market selloff has left the dollar standing tall and casting a shadow on the currency market.

Among the most affected was the pound, which was headed for its biggest three-day drop in nearly two years.

Sterling slid to $1.2239 on Thursday, its weakest since November 2023, even as British government bond yields hit multi-year highs.

Ordinarily, higher gilt yields would support the pound, but not in this case.

The sell-off in UK government bond markets resumed on Thursday, with 10-year and 30-year gilt yields jumping again in early trading, as confidence in Britain's fiscal outlook deteriorates.

"Such a simultaneous sell-off in currency and bonds is rather unusual for a G10 country," said Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank.

"It seems to be the culmination of a development that began several months ago. The new Labour government's approval ratings are at record lows just a few months after the election, and business and consumer sentiment is severely depressed."

Sterling was last down about 0.69% at $1.2282.

The euro also eased, albeit less than the pound, to $1.0302, lurking close to the two-year low it hit last week as investors remain worried the single currency may fall to the key $1 mark this year due to tariff uncertainties.

The yen hovered near the key 160 per dollar mark that led to Tokyo intervening in the market last July, after it touched a near six-month low of 158.55 on Wednesday.

Though it strengthened a bit on the day and was last at 158.15 per dollar. That all left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, up 0.15% and at 109.18, just shy of the two-year high it touched last week.

Also in the mix were the Federal Reserve minutes of its December meeting, released on Wednesday, which showed the central bank flagged new inflation concerns and officials saw a rising risk the incoming administration's plans may slow economic growth and raise unemployment.

With US markets closed on Thursday, the spotlight will be on Friday's payrolls report as investors parse through data to gauge when the Fed will next cut rates.