Finance Minister Expects 4.5% Growth in Türkiye This Year

Turkish Minister of Finance Mehmet Simsek speaks on Thursday during the general assembly of the Banks Association of Türkiye. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Turkish Minister of Finance Mehmet Simsek speaks on Thursday during the general assembly of the Banks Association of Türkiye. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Finance Minister Expects 4.5% Growth in Türkiye This Year

Turkish Minister of Finance Mehmet Simsek speaks on Thursday during the general assembly of the Banks Association of Türkiye. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Turkish Minister of Finance Mehmet Simsek speaks on Thursday during the general assembly of the Banks Association of Türkiye. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Turkish Minister of Finance Mehmet Simsek has said that Ankara expects the nation's economy to grow by around 4.5% in 2023.

“In 2023, we are forecasting a growth rate of around 4.5% despite all global financial problems,” he said, stressing that “the need for establishing a rebalance in the economy is very clear.”

“We will move forward in a system that embraces the principles of free exchange, and floating exchange,” he said on Thursday during the general assembly of the Banks Association of Türkiye.

The global economy is expected to reach 3% during the coming five years, he mentioned.

“Our country grew by 5.4% in real terms on average in the 2003-2022 period,” Simsek noted.

“As I said before, our main principles are transparency, consistency, predictability and complying with international norms,” he said.

"Funds started to flow into our capital markets, all these developments have eased access to foreign financing opportunities and reduced financing costs."

“The country's risk premium has decreased from 700 to around 400 basis points,” Simek said.

He remarked that international credit rating agencies have started to reveal a more optimistic outlook for the Turkish economy, adding one of the agencies raised the Turkish banking system's outlook to stable from negative.

Moody’s expects Türkiye’s economic growth to slow down, with real GDP expanding at 4.2% in 2023, down from 5.6% growth in 2022.

It expects inflation to stay high at 51% in 2023, although down from 72% recorded in 2022.

The Turkish minister also vowed to further strengthen financial stability in the upcoming period. “Simplification and tightening policies will continue,” he added.

Strong domestic demand poses risks through the current account deficit and inflation, Simsek said.

In another context, Türkiye's unemployment rate fell to 9.7% in the second quarter of this year, down to 0.3% compared to the quarter before, the country's statistical authority said Thursday.

The number of unemployed individuals decreased by 73,000 when compared to the quarter earlier, TurkStat added.

The number of those employed in the same period increased by 151,000 and reached 31.5 million, the data revealed.



China's Industrial Profits Narrow Decline but 2024 Likely Worst Year in Decades

An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer
An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer
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China's Industrial Profits Narrow Decline but 2024 Likely Worst Year in Decades

An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer
An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer

China's industrial profits fell at a slower clip in November, official data showed on Friday, but the annual decline in earnings this year is expected to be the worst in over two decades due to persistently soft domestic consumption.

The world's second-largest economy has been struggling to mount a strong post-pandemic revival, as business and household appetites for spending and investment remain subdued amid a prolonged housing downturn and fresh trade risks from the incoming US administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

Industrial profits fell 7.3% in November from the same month last year, following a 10% drop in October, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed, Reuters reported.

The narrower decline in November pointed to improved profits as recent economic stimulus measures start to have an effect, said Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic researcher at China Everbright Bank.

The profit numbers were also in line with a slower decline in factory-gate prices in November. The producer price index fell 2.5% year-on-year versus the 2.9% drop in October.

The World Bank on Thursday revised up its 2024 economic growth forecast for China slightly to 4.9% from its June forecast of 4.8%.

Still, in the first 11 months of 2024, industrial profits declined 4.7%, deepening a 4.3% slide in the January-October period, reflecting still tepid private demand in the Chinese economy.

China's full-year industrial profits are set to show their biggest drop in percentage terms since 2011. However, when smaller companies are included under a previous compilation methodology, this year's profit decline is expected to the worst since at least 2000.

A spate of economic indicators released this month pointed to mixed results, with industrial output accelerating in November while new home prices fell at the slowest pace in 17 months.

The industrial sector is undergoing an uneven recovery amid insufficient demand, Zhou said, pointing to difficulties facing real estate and some related industries as evidence of this malaise.

China's leaders vowed in a key policy meeting this month to raise the deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to maintain a stable economic growth rate. The government also recently pledged to step up direct fiscal support to consumers and boosting social security.

Beijing has agreed to issue a record $411 billion special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported.

Profits at state-owned firms fell 8.4% in the first 11 months, foreign firms posted a 0.8% decline and private-sector companies recorded a 1% fall, according to a breakdown of the NBS data.

Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.7 million) from their main operations.