Non-oil Sector Leads Saudi Arabia’s GDP Growth in Second Quarter

Non-oil activities achieved a positive growth of 6.1% during the second quarter of 2023. (SPA)
Non-oil activities achieved a positive growth of 6.1% during the second quarter of 2023. (SPA)
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Non-oil Sector Leads Saudi Arabia’s GDP Growth in Second Quarter

Non-oil activities achieved a positive growth of 6.1% during the second quarter of 2023. (SPA)
Non-oil activities achieved a positive growth of 6.1% during the second quarter of 2023. (SPA)

The surge of the non-oil economy in Saudi Arabia at a rate of 6.1 percent, during the second quarter of 2023, led the Kingdom to raise its estimates of GDP growth from 1.1 percent to 1.2 percent.

On July 31, the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) issued preliminary estimates, which pointed that the GDP growth reached 1.1 percent in the second quarter of the year.

The GASTAT recent report noted that most economic activities recorded positive growth rates on an annual basis in the second quarter of 2023, with transport, storage and communication activities registering the highest rates of 12.9 percent.

This was supported by the launch of a number of developments and projects, including the official inauguration of Riyadh Air, which will start operating by 2025, according Jadwa Investment.

Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotel activities also grew by 9.8 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period of 2022.

The construction sector also rebounded strongly, growing by 4 percent during the second quarter on an annual basis, in an upward trend, after nearly two years of stagnation that was mainly due to the outbreak of the Covid-19.

On Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in a statement issued by its Executive Board at the conclusion of the 2023 Article IV consultation with Saudi Arabia, expected that the real non-oil GDP in the Kingdom would grow by 4.9 percent during 2023, and 4.4 percent during 2024.

The statement added that the IMF Board “welcomed Saudi Arabia’s ongoing economic transformation, supported by commendable reforms under the Vision 2030 agenda and higher oil prices, which has helped create high growth, record low unemployment, contained inflation, and strong external and fiscal buffers, while reducing reliance on oil.”

The GASTAT report showed that the GDP increased by 1.2 percent in the second quarter on an annual basis, while it decreased by 0.2 percent on a quarterly basis compared to the first quarter of the year.

GASTAT further noted that the Kingdom’s oil activities decreased by 4.3 percent in the three months to the end of June, compared to the same period of the previous year, while it dropped by 1.5 percent from the first quarter of 2023.



Oil Slumps 3% as Trump's Tariffs Expected to Impede Demand

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
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Oil Slumps 3% as Trump's Tariffs Expected to Impede Demand

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo

Oil prices fell by over 3% on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs which investors worry will enflame a global trade war that will curtail economic growth and limit fuel demand.

Brent futures were down $2.66, or 3.55%, to $72.29 a barrel by 0918 GMT US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $2.69, or 3.75%, to $69.02.

Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 10% minimum tariff on most goods imported to the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, with much higher duties on products from dozens of countries, initiating a global trade war that threatens to drive up inflation and stall US and worldwide economic growth, Reuters reported.

"The US tariff announcement clearly caught markets off guard. Pre-announcement speculation suggested a flat 15-20% tariff, but the final decision was more hawkish," Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, said in an email.

"For oil prices, the focus now shifts to the global growth outlook, which is likely to be revised downward due to these higher-than-expected tariffs," he added.

Imports of oil, gas and refined products were exempted from the new tariffs, the White House said on Wednesday.

UBS analysts on Wednesday cut their oil forecasts by $3 per barrel over 2025-26 to $72 per barrel, citing weaker fundamentals.

Traders and analysts now expect more price volatility in the near term, as the tariffs may change as countries try to negotiate lower rates or impose retaliatory levies.

"Countermeasures are imminent and judging by the initial market reaction, recession and stagflation have become terrifying possibilities," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

"As tariffs are ultimately paid for by domestic consumers and businesses, their cost will inevitably increase impeding the rise in economic wealth."

In other news, US Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed US crude inventories rose by a surprisingly large 6.2 million barrels last week, against analysts' forecasts for a decline of 2.1 million barrels.

Market participants are also awaiting the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, which will discuss Kazakh output.