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Gold Climbs as US Inflation Data Takes Center Stage this Week

Gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo
Gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo
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Gold Climbs as US Inflation Data Takes Center Stage this Week

Gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo
Gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo

Gold prices rose on Monday, supported by a retreat in the dollar as investors look forward to US inflation data that could sway the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later in the year.
Spot gold jumped 0.5% to $1,927.39 per ounce by 0614 GMT, while US gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,950.80.
Gold should be supported above the $1,900 level if we see the US dollar continue to decline on bets that the Fed are indeed done with their tightening cycle, said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index, Reuters said.
Gold had found support around its 200-day moving average, an important technical level not easy to crack, he said, adding that if US inflation undershoots that could weigh further on the dollar.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August due on Wednesday is expected to shape the Fed's interest rate decisions this year.
KCM Trade Chief Market analyst Tim Waterer said the inflation numbers could creep to the upside courtesy of ascending energy prices, which will keep alive the odds of another 25-basis-point move by the Fed come November.
Ahead of their policy-setting meeting this month, Fed policymakers have been pretty clear about two things: They are not itching to raise interest rates, but few among them are ready to declare victory, either.
The US dollar dropped 0.5% and benchmark 10-year bond yields shed 0.3%, making non-yielding bullion more attractive for overseas buyers.
"The precious metal will likely be relying on a pullback in yields in order to again challenge the $1,950 level," Waterer said in a note.
Spot gold may retest a resistance at $1,930 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
Elsewhere, spot silver jumped 0.7% to $23.07 per ounce, platinum added 0.7% to $898.55 after a 7% decline last week, and palladium edged 0.7% higher to $1,206.21.

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Will Escalation Stop Israeli Gas Production?

File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
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Will Escalation Stop Israeli Gas Production?

File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)

The American energy giant Chevron, which operates the Leviathan field off the Mediterranean coast of Israel, has decided to suspend work on laying an underwater pipeline, part of its third pipeline project, due to the escalating conflict and fears of potential missile strikes. This follows the earlier closure of the Tamar and Leviathan gas platforms as a “precautionary measure” during the Iranian attack on Israel on Oct. 1.

These developments came as the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the Leviathan field, located 130 kilometers off the coast of Haifa, was the target of a missile barrage fired by Hezbollah on Wednesday morning at Mount Carmel and Haifa. Chevron subsequently activated “special procedures,” stating that it was dealing with an operational incident on the drilling platform.

During last week’s Iranian missile attack, Yedioth Ahronoth noted that NewMed Energy, a partner in the Leviathan and Tamar gas fields (the latter located about 19 kilometers off the Gaza Strip coast), informed the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange of Chevron’s decision to temporarily shut down the Leviathan field for several hours.

“In light of the latest security developments and based on the system’s operational considerations, the operator occasionally halts production from the Leviathan reservoir for certain periods,” NewMed Energy, which holds a 45.3% stake in Leviathan, stated to the stock exchange.

Chevron holds a 39.6% stake in Leviathan, while Ratio Energies owns 15% of the project. Chevron also has a 15% stake in Tamar.

Leviathan’s partners approved a $429 million investment on Aug. 1 to launch the preliminary engineering design phase to increase Leviathan’s gas export capacity from the Mediterranean Sea field to 21 billion cubic meters annually.

NewMed Energy stated that Chevron had informed the partners that plans for laying the underwater pipeline have been postponed until Apr. 2025—initially scheduled to begin in the second half of 2025—due to the deteriorating security situation. The delay is expected to be at least six months, affecting next year’s projected cash flow.

Currently, gas from the platform is transported to the shore and integrated into Israel’s national grid, where it is distributed to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.

The Leviathan field was discovered in 2010 by NewMed Energy, Chevron (then known as Noble Energy), and Ratio. Natural gas production from Leviathan began on December 31, 2019, and since then, it has become a key source of gas for Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.

The third pipeline project was initiated by the Leviathan partners in July 2023, aimed at boosting Leviathan’s annual production capacity from 12 billion cubic meters to around 21 billion cubic meters. This increase is intended to meet growing local demand and export to neighboring countries and international markets, according to NewMed Energy.

Israel continues to export gas through pipelines from Leviathan and Tamar to Jordan and Egypt. Israeli exports to Egypt rose from 4.9 billion cubic meters in 2022 to 6.3 billion cubic meters in 2023, while sales to Jordan remained steady year-on-year at 2.7 billion cubic meters. In the second quarter of this year, Leviathan’s total gas production reached 2.8 billion cubic meters, with exports to Egypt rising by 12.5% to 1.8 billion cubic meters during the same period, while 0.6 billion cubic meters flowed to Jordan, according to Energy Intelligence.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the potential global market impact of disruptions at Leviathan and Tamar could reduce global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply by nearly 9 billion cubic meters annually, or 1.7% of global LNG supplies, according to a report by Energy Intelligence.