Study: Ukraine War Expected to Have Bigger Impact on European Economies

 Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
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Study: Ukraine War Expected to Have Bigger Impact on European Economies

 Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)

The war in Ukraine has reduced European economic growth and "considerably" pushed up inflation across the continent, the Swiss National Bank said in a study published on Friday, with worse effects still to come.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Europe has seen a surge in energy prices, financial market turmoil and a sharp contraction in the economies of both Russia and Ukraine, the report said.

Examining the war's economic impact on Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Switzerland, the study said output would have been between 0.1% and 0.7% higher in the fourth quarter of 2022 if Russia had not invaded Ukraine.

Consumer prices in each of the countries would have been between 0.2% and 0.4% lower, said the working paper, which aims to stimulate discussion and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the SNB.

"The negative consequences of the war are likely to be far greater in the medium-to-long term, especially with regard to the real economy," the study said.

"In one to two years, this effect is likely to be approximately twice as large," it added.

Germany was the worst affected, the study said. Its GDP would have been 0.7% higher and inflation would have been 0.4% lower in the fourth quarter of 2022 if Russia had neither attacked nor threatened Ukraine, the study said.

Britain was also hard hit, with economic output reduced by 0.7% and inflation increased by 0.2%.

France would have seen inflation 0.3% lower and GDP 0.1% higher without the conflict, while Italian inflation would have been 0.2% lower and GDP 0.3% higher.

Swiss GDP would have been 0.3% higher and inflation 0.4% lower without the war, the study added.

However, the authors said their estimates tended towards the low side because they "probably" underestimated food price inflation and looked at oil prices rather than gas prices.

The impact of refugees and increased military spending may be more than in recent conflicts, they added.



Oil Prices Rise as Israel-Iran Conflict Enters Seventh Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Prices Rise as Israel-Iran Conflict Enters Seventh Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices rose on Thursday after Israel and Iran continued to exchange missile attacks overnight and US President Donald Trump's stance on the conflict kept investors on edge.

Brent crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $77.06 a barrel by 0913 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude for July was up 54 cents, or 0.7%, at $75.68. Brent had surged to its highest in nearly five months at $78.50 on June 13, when Israel began its attacks. The conflict entered its seventh day on Thursday after Israel struck a key Iranian nuclear site and Iranian missiles hit an Israeli hospital, Reuters said.

There is still a "healthy risk premium baked into the price as traders wait to see whether the next stage of the Israel-Iran conflict is a US strike or peace talks", said Tony Sycamore, analyst at trading platform IG.

Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that a geopolitical risk premium of about $10 a barrel is justified, given lower Iranian supply and risk of wider disruption that could push Brent crude above $90.

President Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he had yet to decide whether the US will join Israel in its attacks on Iran.

As a result of the unpredictability that has long characterized Trump's foreign policy, "markets remain jittery, awaiting firmer signals that could influence global oil supply and regional stability" said Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova.

The risk of major energy disruption will rise if Iran feels existentially threatened, and US entry into the conflict could trigger direct attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure, said RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft.

Iran is the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil.

About 18 million to 21 million bpd of oil and oil products move through the Strait of Hormuz along Iran's southern coast and there is widespread concern the fighting could disrupt trade flows.

Separately, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday but penciled in two cuts by the end of the year. Lower interest rates could stimulate the economy, helping to support demand for oil. On the supply side, US crude stockpiles fell sharply last week, registering the largest decline in a year, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.