Study: Ukraine War Expected to Have Bigger Impact on European Economies

 Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
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Study: Ukraine War Expected to Have Bigger Impact on European Economies

 Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)

The war in Ukraine has reduced European economic growth and "considerably" pushed up inflation across the continent, the Swiss National Bank said in a study published on Friday, with worse effects still to come.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Europe has seen a surge in energy prices, financial market turmoil and a sharp contraction in the economies of both Russia and Ukraine, the report said.

Examining the war's economic impact on Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Switzerland, the study said output would have been between 0.1% and 0.7% higher in the fourth quarter of 2022 if Russia had not invaded Ukraine.

Consumer prices in each of the countries would have been between 0.2% and 0.4% lower, said the working paper, which aims to stimulate discussion and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the SNB.

"The negative consequences of the war are likely to be far greater in the medium-to-long term, especially with regard to the real economy," the study said.

"In one to two years, this effect is likely to be approximately twice as large," it added.

Germany was the worst affected, the study said. Its GDP would have been 0.7% higher and inflation would have been 0.4% lower in the fourth quarter of 2022 if Russia had neither attacked nor threatened Ukraine, the study said.

Britain was also hard hit, with economic output reduced by 0.7% and inflation increased by 0.2%.

France would have seen inflation 0.3% lower and GDP 0.1% higher without the conflict, while Italian inflation would have been 0.2% lower and GDP 0.3% higher.

Swiss GDP would have been 0.3% higher and inflation 0.4% lower without the war, the study added.

However, the authors said their estimates tended towards the low side because they "probably" underestimated food price inflation and looked at oil prices rather than gas prices.

The impact of refugees and increased military spending may be more than in recent conflicts, they added.



AlKhorayef: Saudi Arabia Has Become a Major Global Player in Mining Sector

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar AlKhorayef speaks at the roundtable in Sao Paulo. (Saudi Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources)
Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar AlKhorayef speaks at the roundtable in Sao Paulo. (Saudi Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources)
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AlKhorayef: Saudi Arabia Has Become a Major Global Player in Mining Sector

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar AlKhorayef speaks at the roundtable in Sao Paulo. (Saudi Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources)
Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar AlKhorayef speaks at the roundtable in Sao Paulo. (Saudi Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources)

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar AlKhorayef stressed on Tuesday that the Kingdom has proven its strength in the field of mining, becoming a major global player in the field.

It is forging ahead in developing its mining sector as part of the Kingdom’s efforts to diversify its economy, he said during his participation in a roundtable meeting organized by the Federation of Industries of the State of Sao Paulo during his official visit to Brazil.

The roundtable was attended by several leading figures in the mineral wealth sector.

AlKhorayef said mining is a global issue that demands international leadership and cooperation given its importance in pushing forward the energy transition across the world.

“The Kingdom recognizes that global mineral production challenges require collective leadership,” he added.

“Our strategy for real progress is rooted in collaboration, and while we maintain our ambitious goals, we focus on forging strong partnerships worldwide,” he stressed.

“Mineral production transcends economic value; it embodies the potential of our country and people. With our rich resources, skilled workforce, and exceptional investment opportunities, the Kingdom is poised for transformative growth,” he went on to say.

Moreover, AlKhorayef highlighted the fourth edition of the International Mining and Resources Conference, set to take place in Riyadh in January, saying it has become the most important platform for discussing opportunities, issues, and solutions in the global mining sector.

The minister said Saudi Arabia’s national industry strategy aims to diversify 12 main sectors and provide job opportunities at over 800 projects that are worth a trillion riyals.

Furthermore, the minister said Saudi Arabia was seeking to “revolutionize the pharmaceutical sector, with a target to localize 80-90% of insulin production and attract top-tier investments in healthcare.”

He highlighted the Kingdom’s wealth of natural resources and human capital, major investment opportunities and modern infrastructure.

AlKhorayef kicked off his visit to Brazil on July 22. He is later set to visit Chile.