Study: Ukraine War Expected to Have Bigger Impact on European Economies

 Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
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Study: Ukraine War Expected to Have Bigger Impact on European Economies

 Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)

The war in Ukraine has reduced European economic growth and "considerably" pushed up inflation across the continent, the Swiss National Bank said in a study published on Friday, with worse effects still to come.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Europe has seen a surge in energy prices, financial market turmoil and a sharp contraction in the economies of both Russia and Ukraine, the report said.

Examining the war's economic impact on Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Switzerland, the study said output would have been between 0.1% and 0.7% higher in the fourth quarter of 2022 if Russia had not invaded Ukraine.

Consumer prices in each of the countries would have been between 0.2% and 0.4% lower, said the working paper, which aims to stimulate discussion and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the SNB.

"The negative consequences of the war are likely to be far greater in the medium-to-long term, especially with regard to the real economy," the study said.

"In one to two years, this effect is likely to be approximately twice as large," it added.

Germany was the worst affected, the study said. Its GDP would have been 0.7% higher and inflation would have been 0.4% lower in the fourth quarter of 2022 if Russia had neither attacked nor threatened Ukraine, the study said.

Britain was also hard hit, with economic output reduced by 0.7% and inflation increased by 0.2%.

France would have seen inflation 0.3% lower and GDP 0.1% higher without the conflict, while Italian inflation would have been 0.2% lower and GDP 0.3% higher.

Swiss GDP would have been 0.3% higher and inflation 0.4% lower without the war, the study added.

However, the authors said their estimates tended towards the low side because they "probably" underestimated food price inflation and looked at oil prices rather than gas prices.

The impact of refugees and increased military spending may be more than in recent conflicts, they added.



Saudi EXIM Bank Signs MoU with Credit Oman to Boost Bilateral Exports

The MoU was signed on the sidelines of the TXF Global 2025 conference held in Copenhagen from June 10 to 12 - SPA
The MoU was signed on the sidelines of the TXF Global 2025 conference held in Copenhagen from June 10 to 12 - SPA
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Saudi EXIM Bank Signs MoU with Credit Oman to Boost Bilateral Exports

The MoU was signed on the sidelines of the TXF Global 2025 conference held in Copenhagen from June 10 to 12 - SPA
The MoU was signed on the sidelines of the TXF Global 2025 conference held in Copenhagen from June 10 to 12 - SPA

CEO of Saudi EXIM Bank, Eng. Saad bin Abdulaziz AlKhalb and CEO of Credit Oman, Khalil bin Ahmed Al Harthy signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to promote cooperation in supporting joint projects, facilitating exports, and exchanging expertise, thereby contributing to the empowerment of non-oil exports and strengthening economic and trade ties between the two countries.

This came on the sidelines of the TXF Global 2025 conference held in Copenhagen from June 10 to 12.

EXIM participated as a sponsor of the conference to enhance the bank’s role in global trade and establish strategic partnerships to support the growth and competitiveness of Saudi non-oil exports in international markets, according to SPA.

Engineer Al-Khalb also participated in a panel session during the conference alongside a distinguished group of leaders, decision-makers, and export credit experts to discuss ways to foster international trade cooperation. He affirmed that Saudi EXIM Bank is a reliable partner in the global trade ecosystem, noting that the bank’s establishment is part of the Kingdom’s broader economic transformation.

He pointed out that the bank has provided credit facilities amounting to USD 22 billion since its inception and emphasized that the bank’s A+ credit rating from Fitch Ratings will significantly impact its operations and those of its clients and partners both locally and globally. He added that the bank’s strategy is focused on building strategic pathways for local exporters.