IMF Adjusts Egypt's Growth Forecasts: 4.2% in 2023

Egyptian capital, Cairo. (Reuters)
Egyptian capital, Cairo. (Reuters)
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IMF Adjusts Egypt's Growth Forecasts: 4.2% in 2023

Egyptian capital, Cairo. (Reuters)
Egyptian capital, Cairo. (Reuters)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its forecasts for Egypt's economy to 4.2% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024.

Egypt’s economy reached 6.7% in 2022, according to the IMF in its World Economic Outlook report released in Marrakesh.

The report predicts that Egypt’s inflation will rise to 23.5% in 2023 and 32.2% in 2024.

The current account balance is projected to reach -1.7% of GDP in FY 2022/23, and -2.7% in 2024.

Additionally, the report suggests that unemployment rates in Egypt may reach this year 7.1% and rise to 7.5% next year from 7.3% in 2022.

The Fund tackles the financial year extending from July to the end of June of each year.

Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation rose to a historic high of 38% in September, climbing from 37.4% in August and topping analyst expectations, data from statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Tuesday.

It was the fourth consecutive month of record highs recorded on the central bank website, which has figures going back to 2000.

The median forecast of 18 analysts polled this week had shown annual urban consumer inflation rising to 37.6% in September.

The previous high, before inflation soared in June, was 32.95% recorded in July 2017.

Inflation also accelerated on a monthly basis, with prices rising by 2.0% compared with a 1.6% increase in August, Allen Sandeep of Naeem Brokerage said. It was their fastest pace of increase since June.

In September food and beverages climbed month-on-month by 3.6%, with vegetable prices surging by 19.2%, fruits by 5.4%, dairy products by 5.4%, and sugar items by 2.9%, Sandeep added.

Seeking to fight food inflation, the government said on Monday it had agreed with private producers and retailers to cut prices on staple foods by 15-25% and exempt them from customs duties for six months.

Rapid money supply growth over the last two years has helped prices to climb rapidly and the currency to lose almost half its value against the US dollar since March 2022. Many Egyptians have seen their living standards slide.



Saudi Arabia's Non-Oil Exports Hit Historic High of SAR515 Billion in 2024

A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia's Non-Oil Exports Hit Historic High of SAR515 Billion in 2024

A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports reached an unprecedented SAR515 billion in 2024, marking the highest value in the Kingdom's history. This achievement represents a significant 13% increase compared to the previous year and an impressive growth of over 113% since the launch of Vision 2030.

The robust growth spanned all export sectors. Merchandise exports climbed to SAR217 billion (+4%), fueled by respective increases of 2% and 9% in petrochemical and non-petrochemical exports, reported the Saudi Press Agency on Saturday.

Re-exports surged to SAR90 billion, demonstrating a remarkable 205% growth since the inception of Vision 2030. Services exports also reached an all-time high of SAR207 billion, exhibiting a 14% year-on-year increase and a substantial 220% rise since Vision 2030's announcement.

Saudi Export Development Authority CEO Abdulrahman Althukair attributed this historic non-oil export performance to the Kingdom's sustained efforts in economic diversification and enhancing the competitiveness of national products.

He highlighted the authority's commitment to facilitating national companies' access to new markets and bolstering their export capabilities through comprehensive programs encompassing training, empowerment, promotion, and advisory services. This aligns with Vision 2030's goals to establish a thriving economy where non-oil exports are a key driver of sustainable growth.

In 2024, petrochemical commodity exports amounted to SAR149 billion, constituting 68% of total commodity exports, and registered a 2% increase in value and weight compared to the previous year.

Non-petrochemical commodity exports achieved a remarkable SAR69 billion (32% of total commodity exports), the highest value in recent years. This included record export figures for over 205 Saudi products, such as food and dairy products, minerals, and building materials. Fertilizer exports also demonstrated exceptional growth, with product weight reaching a historic peak in 2024, increasing by 5% year-on-year, and more than fivefold in value since the launch of Vision 2030.

The Kingdom's re-export sector also delivered a historic performance in 2024, reaching SAR90 billion, a 205% increase compared to 2016, a 42% rise year-on-year, and a 114% increase compared to 2019. This was primarily driven by the re-export of mobile phones, which reached a record value of SAR25 billion, more than doubling their 2023 value. The operation of the integrated logistics zone at King Khalid International Airport played a significant role in this remarkable growth by enhancing supply chain efficiency and facilitating re-export operations.

Machinery, automated devices, transportation equipment, and parts thereof constituted 84% of total re-exports in 2024. Re-exports of aircraft parts also experienced substantial growth, increasing from SAR1.6 billion in 2022 to over SAR2 billion in 2024.

In 2024, the Kingdom exported goods, re-exports, and services to over 180 countries, with 37 countries registering record import values, including the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, Algeria, Spain, France, Poland, Libya, and Syria. Other countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Morocco, Pakistan, Nigeria, Germany, Greece, and Bulgaria, also achieved record import volumes.

Services exports reached a record SAR207 billion in 2024, marking a 14% year-on-year increase and a 220% rise since 2016. The travel and tourism sector was a key driver, increasing by 270% since 2016. In 2024, Saudi Arabia welcomed approximately 30 million international tourists, contributing to a 150% increase in travel exports compared to 2019, representing 74% of total service exports.

The Kingdom also recorded a 69% increase in international tourist numbers compared to pre-pandemic levels and a 148% increase in tourism revenues compared to 2019. Saudi Arabia led the G20 in tourist number growth, with a 73% growth rate during the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2019. The transportation sector contributed 12% of total service exports, achieving a 5% year-on-year growth.