Japan Warns ‘Gaza War’ Could Impact Economy

Reflection of the image of passers-by on a screen displaying stock movements on the Japanese Stock Exchange in central Tokyo. (Reuters)
Reflection of the image of passers-by on a screen displaying stock movements on the Japanese Stock Exchange in central Tokyo. (Reuters)
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Japan Warns ‘Gaza War’ Could Impact Economy

Reflection of the image of passers-by on a screen displaying stock movements on the Japanese Stock Exchange in central Tokyo. (Reuters)
Reflection of the image of passers-by on a screen displaying stock movements on the Japanese Stock Exchange in central Tokyo. (Reuters)

Japan's government warned on Monday that the conflict in the Middle East could impact the economy through energy costs, while keeping its view that the economy was recovering moderately.

The concerns underscore policymakers' worries as the rising energy prices have already been a burden for the world's third-largest economy that relies on imports to cover most of its energy needs.

The government added the developments in the Middle East to factors requiring close attention as it "could pose a downside risk to the Japanese economy," said an official at the Cabinet Office, which compiled the monthly report for October.

"There could be a negative impact on Japanese households, consumption, and corporate earnings through higher import cost," he said.

The Japanese government's monthly report also reiterated that careful attention needed to be paid to the effects of rising prices and fluctuations in the financial and capital markets.

The Japanese currency recently weakened beyond 150 yen to the dollar to hit its weakest level since October 2022 when authorities intervened in the market to stem the weakness. The 150 yen line is seen by markets as a danger zone that could trigger an intervention.

As wage recovery is not strong enough to offset price increases, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government plans to compile a package of measures to cushion the economic blow from rising inflation on Nov. 2.

Japan raised its assessment on business sentiment for the first time since July and said it was "improving moderately as a whole", according to the report.

The upward revision reflected the Bank of Japan's survey earlier this month that business sentiment improved in the third quarter.

The government also kept its caution about downside risks from the global monetary tightening and worries about the outlook for China's economy.

The report came out ahead of the BOJ's monetary policy meeting on Oct. 30-31 when the central bank will face growing pressure to shift further away from its controversial bond yield control.

Meanwhile, Japanese ruling party executive Koichi Hagiuda said on Sunday that the ruling coalition in Japan hasn’t decided yet whether the tax reduction determined during the term of PM Fumio Kishida would last for more than a year.

Moreover, the Japanese government is currently working to allocate ¥140 billion ($935 million) in the fiscal 2023 supplementary budget to support the companies willing to expand their scope of work in emerging markets.



OPEC Secretary General: Producing Critical Minerals in Future Not Only Dependent on Renewable Energy

Trucks transporting minerals from the mountains (Getty)
Trucks transporting minerals from the mountains (Getty)
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OPEC Secretary General: Producing Critical Minerals in Future Not Only Dependent on Renewable Energy

Trucks transporting minerals from the mountains (Getty)
Trucks transporting minerals from the mountains (Getty)

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Monday that those that talk of critical minerals delivering the world a future of only renewables and EVs, are not providing a full picture.

In an article published on the organization’s official website, Al Ghais spoke about the many future energy pathways for nations and peoples across the world, affirming that “we all need to be realistic about how these can be achieved.”

Al Ghais said that sustainable energy pathways are vital for populations all over the world. However, he noted, “we need to appreciate the real-world impacts of scenarios and policies aimed at ramping up renewables and electric vehicles (EVs). There are many elements that filter into this, a central one being the role played by critical minerals.”

At this point, he mentioned the International Energy Agency (IEA), which says that in its Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 Scenario, demand for critical minerals quadruples by 2040.

“It is a pace never seen before in history,” Al Ghais wrote.

He noted that while these minerals, such as copper, cobalt, silicon, nickel, lithium, graphite and rare earths underpin the development of renewables and EVs, OPEC Member Countries are investing heavily in renewables, in all stages of their supply chains, and participating in the development of EVs.

OPEC attaches an importance “to the role of renewables and electrification in our energy future,” he said.

Al Ghais then posed several questions on the nature of such an expansion of critical mineral requirements.

“Is this kind of expansion truly feasible? What are the implications? How sustainable is it? And how important is oil and gas to the expansion of critical minerals, as well as renewables, EVs and grids,” he asked.

In the mentioned IEA scenario, Al Ghais said that by 2040, copper demand rises by 50%, rare earths demand almost doubles, cobalt demand more than doubles, and nickel demand is close to tripling.

“These are nowhere near the largest increases either. Graphite demand grows almost four times, and lithium sees a nearly ninefold expansion by 2040, underlining its crucial role in batteries,” he noted.

The OPEC Secretary General affirmed that this will require the construction of a huge number of new mines.

“Back in 2022, the IEA said that by 2030 alone, the world would need to build 50 new lithium mines, 60 new nickel mines and 17 cobalt mines,” he said.

He added, “It should be borne in mind that, historically, critical supply chain projects, such as for these types of commodities, have had long development lead times, from discovery to first production.”

Here, Al Ghais asked another question: is such growth realistic? And what might the impact be if growth comes up short, and equally importantly, what if policymakers have also followed a path of no longer investing in new oil and gas projects?

The Secretary General said EVs, wind turbines, solar panels, as well as new grids, are all hungry for critical minerals.

“An EV contains approximately 200 kg of minerals,” he explained. “For contrast, a conventional car uses around 34 kg. One megawatt of electricity produced by an offshore wind turbine requires around 15 tons of minerals, while the figure for solar is around seven tons. For natural gas, it is just over 1 ton.”