Japan Warns ‘Gaza War’ Could Impact Economy

Reflection of the image of passers-by on a screen displaying stock movements on the Japanese Stock Exchange in central Tokyo. (Reuters)
Reflection of the image of passers-by on a screen displaying stock movements on the Japanese Stock Exchange in central Tokyo. (Reuters)
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Japan Warns ‘Gaza War’ Could Impact Economy

Reflection of the image of passers-by on a screen displaying stock movements on the Japanese Stock Exchange in central Tokyo. (Reuters)
Reflection of the image of passers-by on a screen displaying stock movements on the Japanese Stock Exchange in central Tokyo. (Reuters)

Japan's government warned on Monday that the conflict in the Middle East could impact the economy through energy costs, while keeping its view that the economy was recovering moderately.

The concerns underscore policymakers' worries as the rising energy prices have already been a burden for the world's third-largest economy that relies on imports to cover most of its energy needs.

The government added the developments in the Middle East to factors requiring close attention as it "could pose a downside risk to the Japanese economy," said an official at the Cabinet Office, which compiled the monthly report for October.

"There could be a negative impact on Japanese households, consumption, and corporate earnings through higher import cost," he said.

The Japanese government's monthly report also reiterated that careful attention needed to be paid to the effects of rising prices and fluctuations in the financial and capital markets.

The Japanese currency recently weakened beyond 150 yen to the dollar to hit its weakest level since October 2022 when authorities intervened in the market to stem the weakness. The 150 yen line is seen by markets as a danger zone that could trigger an intervention.

As wage recovery is not strong enough to offset price increases, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government plans to compile a package of measures to cushion the economic blow from rising inflation on Nov. 2.

Japan raised its assessment on business sentiment for the first time since July and said it was "improving moderately as a whole", according to the report.

The upward revision reflected the Bank of Japan's survey earlier this month that business sentiment improved in the third quarter.

The government also kept its caution about downside risks from the global monetary tightening and worries about the outlook for China's economy.

The report came out ahead of the BOJ's monetary policy meeting on Oct. 30-31 when the central bank will face growing pressure to shift further away from its controversial bond yield control.

Meanwhile, Japanese ruling party executive Koichi Hagiuda said on Sunday that the ruling coalition in Japan hasn’t decided yet whether the tax reduction determined during the term of PM Fumio Kishida would last for more than a year.

Moreover, the Japanese government is currently working to allocate ¥140 billion ($935 million) in the fiscal 2023 supplementary budget to support the companies willing to expand their scope of work in emerging markets.



Saudi Arabia Sees Highest Level of Non-oil Private Sector Activity in 4 Months

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Sees Highest Level of Non-oil Private Sector Activity in 4 Months

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Business activity in Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector accelerated to a four-month high in September, driven by strong demand, which led to faster growth in new orders. The Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), adjusted for seasonal factors, rose to 56.3 points from 54.8 in August, marking the highest reading since May and further distancing itself from the 50.0 level that indicates growth.

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders, alongside challenges in supply. The improvement in business conditions contributed to a significant rise in employment opportunities, although difficulties in finding skilled workers led to a shortage in production capacity.

At the same time, concerns over increasing competition caused a decline in future output expectations. According to the PMI statement, inventories of production inputs remained in good condition, which encouraged some companies to reduce their purchasing efforts.

Growth was strong overall and widespread across all non-oil sectors under study. Dr. Naif Al-Ghaith, Senior Economist at Riyad Bank, said that the rise in Saudi Arabia's PMI points to a notable acceleration in the growth of the non-oil private sector, primarily driven by increased production and new orders, reflecting the sector’s expansionary activity.

Al-Ghaith added that companies responded to the rise in domestic demand, which plays a crucial role in reducing the Kingdom's reliance on oil revenues. The upward trend also indicates improved business confidence, pointing to a healthy environment for increased investment, job creation, and overall economic stability.

He emphasized that this growth in the non-oil sector is particularly important given the current context of reduced oil production and falling global oil prices. With oil revenues under pressure, the strong performance of the non-oil private sector acts as a buffer, helping mitigate the potential impact on the country's economic conditions.

Al-Ghaith continued, noting that diversifying income sources is essential to maintaining growth amid the volatility of oil markets. He explained that increased production levels not only enhance the competitiveness of Saudi companies but also encourage developments aimed at expanding the private sector's participation in the economy.

This shift, he said, provides a more stable foundation for long-term growth, making the economy less susceptible to oil price fluctuations.