Tourism in Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan Could Incur $16.1B amid Hamas-Israel War

People sitting at a restaurant along the Corniche Al Manara in the Lebanese capital Beirut on November 5, 2023 (AFP)
People sitting at a restaurant along the Corniche Al Manara in the Lebanese capital Beirut on November 5, 2023 (AFP)
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Tourism in Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan Could Incur $16.1B amid Hamas-Israel War

People sitting at a restaurant along the Corniche Al Manara in the Lebanese capital Beirut on November 5, 2023 (AFP)
People sitting at a restaurant along the Corniche Al Manara in the Lebanese capital Beirut on November 5, 2023 (AFP)

After a month has passed since the war between Israel and Hamas, neighboring countries are facing significant economic challenges, especially Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt.

The war has struck at their economic foundations, and its negative effects have directly and indirectly impacted all sectors, posing severe threats to economic growth, foreign reserves, domestic output, inflation, increased unemployment, and decreased investment.
Israel, of course, will not escape unscathed. It is likely that its economy will suffer serious consequences, with its real GDP expected to decline by 5 percent annually in the last quarter of 2023.

According to the latest reports from S&P Global Ratings, published on Tuesday, it is anticipated that the most significant damage from the war between Israel and Hamas will be felt outside the conflict zones, particularly in the tourism sector in Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan.

The agency stated in a report released on Monday that these losses could range from 10% to 70% of total tourism revenues recorded last year, depending on the escalation of the conflict, the expansion of its scope, and its duration.

S&P Global Ratings presented three scenarios, with the most severe one estimating total losses in tourism revenues for the three countries at $16.1 billion.

It stated that the countries directly neighboring Israel and Gaza are particularly vulnerable to a slowdown in tourism, contributing to 12%-26% of their current account revenues, generating foreign currency income, and creating job opportunities.

Tourism revenues have increased by over 50% in Jordan and 30% in Egypt during the first half of 2023.

In Lebanon, the number of tourists has risen by 33% from January to August.

The tourism sector also provides employment opportunities for approximately 20% of the population in these countries, which is crucial given the high unemployment rates witnessed in the three nations.

 

 



Ukraine Threatens to Halt Transit of Russian Oil to Europe

A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
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Ukraine Threatens to Halt Transit of Russian Oil to Europe

A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo

A top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday said Kyiv would halt the transit of Russian oil across its territory at the end of the year, when the current contract expires and is not renewed.

Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview with the Novini.Live broadcaster that current transit contracts for Russian supplies that run through the end of the year will not be renewed.

“There is no doubt that it will all end on January 1, 2025,” he said.

Kiev says it is prepared to transport gas from the Central Asian countries or Azerbaijan to Europe, but not from Russia, as it is crucial for Ukraine to deprive Russia of its sources of income from the sale of raw materials after it attacked its neighbor well over two years ago.

The contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe between the state-owned companies Gazprom and Naftogaz ends on December 31.

Despite the launch of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainians have fulfilled the contract terms - in part at the insistence of its European neighbors, especially Hungary.

But the leadership in Kiev has repeatedly made it clear that it wants the shipments to end.

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic energy security envoy Vaclav Bartuska said on Friday that any potential halt in oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine from Russia from next year would not be a problem for the country.

Responding to a Reuters question – on comments by Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak that flows of Russian oil may stop from January – Bartuska said Ukraine had also in the past warned of a potential halt.

“This is not the first time, this time maybe they mean it seriously – we shall see,” Bartuska said in a text message. “For the Czech Republic, it is not a problem.”

To end partial dependency on the Druzhba pipeline, Czech state-owned pipeline operator MERO has been investing in raising the capacity of the TAL pipeline from Italy to Germany, which connects to the IKL pipeline supplying the Czech Republic.

From next year, the increased capacity would be sufficient for the total needs of the country’s two refineries, owned by Poland’s Orlen, of up to 8 million tons of crude per year.

MERO has said it planned to achieve the country’s independence from Russian oil from the start of 2025, although the TAL upgrade would be finished by June 2025.

On Friday, oil prices stabilized, heading for a weekly increase, as disruptions in Libyan production and Iraq’s plans to curb output raised concerns about supply.

Meanwhile, data showing that the US economy grew faster than initially estimated eased recession fears.

However, signs of weakening demand, particularly in China, capped gains.

Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expire on Friday, fell by 7 cents, or 0.09%, to $79.87 per barrel. The more actively traded November contract rose 5 cents, or 0.06%, to $78.87.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures added 6 cents, or 0.08%, to $75.97 per barrel.

The day before, both benchmarks had risen by more than $1, and so far this week, they have gained 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Additionally, a drop in Libyan exports and the prospect of lower Iraqi crude production in September are expected to help keep the oil market undersupplied.

Over half of Libya’s oil production, around 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), was halted on Thursday, and exports were suspended at several ports due to a standoff between rival political factions.

Elsewhere, Iraq plans to reduce oil output in September as part of a plan to compensate for producing over the quota agreed with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

Iraq, which produced 4.25 million bpd in July, will cut output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million bpd next month, the source said.