Stark UN Report on Devastation to Palestinian Economy Shows GDP Fell 4% after a Month of War

Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
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Stark UN Report on Devastation to Palestinian Economy Shows GDP Fell 4% after a Month of War

Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)

A UN report paints a stark picture of the devastation of the collapse of the Palestinian economy after a month of war and Israel’s near-total siege of Gaza.

The gross domestic product shrank 4% in the West Bank and Gaza in the war’s first month, sending over 400,000 people into poverty — an economic impact unseen in the conflicts Syria and Ukraine, or any previous Israel-Hamas war, the UN said.

Hamas fighters, who rule Gaza, launched a surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 killing over 1,400 people, mainly civilians, and kidnapping about 240 others.

More than two-thirds of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million have fled their homes since Israel launched weeks of intense airstrikes followed by an ongoing ground operation, vowing to obliterate Hamas. The Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza said Thursday that 10,818 Palestinians, including more than 4,400 children, have been killed so far.

The rapid assessment of economic consequences of the Gaza war released Thursday by the UN Development Program and the UN Economic and Social Commission for West Asia was the first UN report showing the devastating impact of the conflict especially on the Palestinians, The Associated Press reported.

If the war continues for a second month, the UN projects that the Palestinian GDP, which was $20.4 billion before the war began, will drop by 8.4% — a loss of $1.7 billion. And if the conflict lasts a third month, Palestinian GDP will drop by 12%, with losses of $2.5 billion and more than 660,000 people pushed into poverty, it projects.

UN Development Program Assistant Secretary-General Abdallah Al Dardari told a news conference that a 12% GDP loss at the end of the year would be “massive and unprecedented.” By comparison, he said, the Syrian economy used to lose 1% of its GDP per month at the height of its conflict, and it took Ukraine a year and a half of fighting to lose 30% of its GDP, an average of about 1.6% a month.

At the beginning of 2023, the Palestinian territories – the West Bank and Gaza – were considered a lower middle-income economy with a poverty level of $6 per day per person, Economic Commission Executive Secretary Rola Dashti said.

In January, Gaza was already grappling with high unemployment of about 46%, three-and-a-half times higher than the West Bank’s 13%, the report said.

But just weeks of war has destroyed hundreds of thousands of jobs.

“As the war hits the one-month mark, 61% of employment in Gaza, equivalent to 182,000 jobs, is estimated to have been lost,” it said. “Around 24% of employment in the West Bank has also been lost, equivalent to 208,000 jobs.”

Al Dardari pointed to massive disruption to the economy in the West Bank, which is responsible for 82% of Palestinian GDP, explaining that this is supposed to be the season for olive and citrus farmers to collect their products but they can’t because of the war. And “the tourism season is practically gone – and agriculture and tourism represent 40% of the GDP in the West Bank," he said.

In addition, Al Dardari said, there are major disruptions to trade, to the transfer of money from Israel to the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, and no investment.

The Economic Commission’s Dashti said "the level of destruction is unimaginable and unprecedented” in Gaza.

“As of November 3, it is estimated that 35,000 housing units have been totally demolished and about 220,000 units are partially damaged,” she said. The report said at least 45% of Gaza’s housing units have been destroyed or damaged.

If this persists, the majority of Gazans will have no homes and Al Dardari said even if fighting ended now there will be massive long-term displacement, “with all its humanitarian economic development and security consequences.”

Al Dardari said it breaks his heart that the Palestinian territories had become lower middle income economies, “because all of that growth and development is going to regress between 11, 16, or even 19 years if the fighting continues. ... We will go back to 2002.”



Oil Falls on Signs of Progress in US-Iran Talks amid More Market Stress

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Falls on Signs of Progress in US-Iran Talks amid More Market Stress

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Monday on signs of progress in talks between the US and Iran while investors remained concerned about economic headwinds from tariffs which could curb demand for fuel.

Brent crude futures slipped $1.51, or 2.2%, to $66.45 a barrel by 1115 GMT after closing up 3.2% on Thursday. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.11 a barrel, down $1.57, or 2.4%, after settling up 3.54% in the previous session. Thursday was the last settlement day last week because of the Good Friday holiday, Reuters reported.

"The US-Iran talks seem relatively positive, which allows for people to start thinking about the possibility of a solution," said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group. "The immediate implication would be that Iranian crude would not be off the market."

Markets also have lower liquidity due to the Easter holiday, which can exacerbate price moves, he added. In the talks, the US and Iran agreed to begin drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran's foreign minister said, after discussions that a US official described as yielding "very good progress." The progress follows further sanctions by the US last week against a Chinese independent oil refinery that it alleges processed Iranian crude, ramping up pressure on Tehran.

Markets also came under stress on Monday, after US President Donald Trump last week made criticisms about the Federal Reserve. Gold prices rose to another record, with jitters rippling into energy markets due to concerns about demand, according to analysts.

"The broader trend remains tilted to the downside, as investors may struggle to find conviction in an improving supply-demand outlook, especially amid the drag from tariffs on global growth and rising supplies from OPEC+," said IG Market Strategist Yeap Jun Rong. OPEC+, the group of major producers including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, is still expected to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, though some of that increase may be offset by cuts from countries that have been exceeding their quotas. A Reuters poll on April 17 showed investors believe the tariff policy will trigger a significant slowdown in the US economy this year and next, with the median probability of recession in the next 12 months approaching 50%. The US is the world's biggest oil consumer.

Investors are watching for several US data releases this week, including April flash manufacturing and services PMI, for direction on the economy.

"This week's series of PMI releases could further underscore the economic impact of tariffs, with both manufacturing and services conditions across major economies expected to soften," IG's Yeap said, adding oil prices face resistance at the $70 level.