Stark UN Report on Devastation to Palestinian Economy Shows GDP Fell 4% after a Month of War

Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
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Stark UN Report on Devastation to Palestinian Economy Shows GDP Fell 4% after a Month of War

Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)

A UN report paints a stark picture of the devastation of the collapse of the Palestinian economy after a month of war and Israel’s near-total siege of Gaza.

The gross domestic product shrank 4% in the West Bank and Gaza in the war’s first month, sending over 400,000 people into poverty — an economic impact unseen in the conflicts Syria and Ukraine, or any previous Israel-Hamas war, the UN said.

Hamas fighters, who rule Gaza, launched a surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 killing over 1,400 people, mainly civilians, and kidnapping about 240 others.

More than two-thirds of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million have fled their homes since Israel launched weeks of intense airstrikes followed by an ongoing ground operation, vowing to obliterate Hamas. The Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza said Thursday that 10,818 Palestinians, including more than 4,400 children, have been killed so far.

The rapid assessment of economic consequences of the Gaza war released Thursday by the UN Development Program and the UN Economic and Social Commission for West Asia was the first UN report showing the devastating impact of the conflict especially on the Palestinians, The Associated Press reported.

If the war continues for a second month, the UN projects that the Palestinian GDP, which was $20.4 billion before the war began, will drop by 8.4% — a loss of $1.7 billion. And if the conflict lasts a third month, Palestinian GDP will drop by 12%, with losses of $2.5 billion and more than 660,000 people pushed into poverty, it projects.

UN Development Program Assistant Secretary-General Abdallah Al Dardari told a news conference that a 12% GDP loss at the end of the year would be “massive and unprecedented.” By comparison, he said, the Syrian economy used to lose 1% of its GDP per month at the height of its conflict, and it took Ukraine a year and a half of fighting to lose 30% of its GDP, an average of about 1.6% a month.

At the beginning of 2023, the Palestinian territories – the West Bank and Gaza – were considered a lower middle-income economy with a poverty level of $6 per day per person, Economic Commission Executive Secretary Rola Dashti said.

In January, Gaza was already grappling with high unemployment of about 46%, three-and-a-half times higher than the West Bank’s 13%, the report said.

But just weeks of war has destroyed hundreds of thousands of jobs.

“As the war hits the one-month mark, 61% of employment in Gaza, equivalent to 182,000 jobs, is estimated to have been lost,” it said. “Around 24% of employment in the West Bank has also been lost, equivalent to 208,000 jobs.”

Al Dardari pointed to massive disruption to the economy in the West Bank, which is responsible for 82% of Palestinian GDP, explaining that this is supposed to be the season for olive and citrus farmers to collect their products but they can’t because of the war. And “the tourism season is practically gone – and agriculture and tourism represent 40% of the GDP in the West Bank," he said.

In addition, Al Dardari said, there are major disruptions to trade, to the transfer of money from Israel to the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, and no investment.

The Economic Commission’s Dashti said "the level of destruction is unimaginable and unprecedented” in Gaza.

“As of November 3, it is estimated that 35,000 housing units have been totally demolished and about 220,000 units are partially damaged,” she said. The report said at least 45% of Gaza’s housing units have been destroyed or damaged.

If this persists, the majority of Gazans will have no homes and Al Dardari said even if fighting ended now there will be massive long-term displacement, “with all its humanitarian economic development and security consequences.”

Al Dardari said it breaks his heart that the Palestinian territories had become lower middle income economies, “because all of that growth and development is going to regress between 11, 16, or even 19 years if the fighting continues. ... We will go back to 2002.”



Gold Hits over 2-week Low as Higher US Dollar, Yields Dent Appeal

Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Gold Hits over 2-week Low as Higher US Dollar, Yields Dent Appeal

Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Gold prices slipped 1% to their lowest level in more than two weeks, weighed down by a stronger dollar and higher bond yields, while traders looked forward to US inflation data due later this week.

Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,299.40 per ounce by 10:03 a.m. ET (1403 GMT), hitting its lowest since June 10. US gold futures also fell 0.8% to $2,311.30, Reuters reported.

"At this point, market may very well be responding to the firmer US dollar and we continue to price in the possibility that the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to move (interest rates) earlier in the summer," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

The dollar rose 0.4% to a near two-month peak against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders, while benchmark US 10-year yields hit a near two-week high.

Focus this week will be on the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, Fed's preferred inflation gauge, that could shed more light on the US interest rate path.

Also on the radar, US first-quarter gross domestic product estimates and a crucial debate between US President Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump on Thursday.

Data out on Tuesday showed US consumer confidence eased in June amid worries about the economic outlook, but households remained upbeat about the labor market and expected inflation to moderate over the next year.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday reiterated her view that holding the policy rate steady "for some time" will probably be enough to bring inflation under control, but also repeated her willingness to raise borrowing costs if needed.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Spot silver fell 0.5% to $28.79, palladium lost 2.8% to $921.75, while platinum climbed 1.7% to $998.75.