Stark UN Report on Devastation to Palestinian Economy Shows GDP Fell 4% after a Month of War

Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
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Stark UN Report on Devastation to Palestinian Economy Shows GDP Fell 4% after a Month of War

Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)

A UN report paints a stark picture of the devastation of the collapse of the Palestinian economy after a month of war and Israel’s near-total siege of Gaza.

The gross domestic product shrank 4% in the West Bank and Gaza in the war’s first month, sending over 400,000 people into poverty — an economic impact unseen in the conflicts Syria and Ukraine, or any previous Israel-Hamas war, the UN said.

Hamas fighters, who rule Gaza, launched a surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 killing over 1,400 people, mainly civilians, and kidnapping about 240 others.

More than two-thirds of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million have fled their homes since Israel launched weeks of intense airstrikes followed by an ongoing ground operation, vowing to obliterate Hamas. The Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza said Thursday that 10,818 Palestinians, including more than 4,400 children, have been killed so far.

The rapid assessment of economic consequences of the Gaza war released Thursday by the UN Development Program and the UN Economic and Social Commission for West Asia was the first UN report showing the devastating impact of the conflict especially on the Palestinians, The Associated Press reported.

If the war continues for a second month, the UN projects that the Palestinian GDP, which was $20.4 billion before the war began, will drop by 8.4% — a loss of $1.7 billion. And if the conflict lasts a third month, Palestinian GDP will drop by 12%, with losses of $2.5 billion and more than 660,000 people pushed into poverty, it projects.

UN Development Program Assistant Secretary-General Abdallah Al Dardari told a news conference that a 12% GDP loss at the end of the year would be “massive and unprecedented.” By comparison, he said, the Syrian economy used to lose 1% of its GDP per month at the height of its conflict, and it took Ukraine a year and a half of fighting to lose 30% of its GDP, an average of about 1.6% a month.

At the beginning of 2023, the Palestinian territories – the West Bank and Gaza – were considered a lower middle-income economy with a poverty level of $6 per day per person, Economic Commission Executive Secretary Rola Dashti said.

In January, Gaza was already grappling with high unemployment of about 46%, three-and-a-half times higher than the West Bank’s 13%, the report said.

But just weeks of war has destroyed hundreds of thousands of jobs.

“As the war hits the one-month mark, 61% of employment in Gaza, equivalent to 182,000 jobs, is estimated to have been lost,” it said. “Around 24% of employment in the West Bank has also been lost, equivalent to 208,000 jobs.”

Al Dardari pointed to massive disruption to the economy in the West Bank, which is responsible for 82% of Palestinian GDP, explaining that this is supposed to be the season for olive and citrus farmers to collect their products but they can’t because of the war. And “the tourism season is practically gone – and agriculture and tourism represent 40% of the GDP in the West Bank," he said.

In addition, Al Dardari said, there are major disruptions to trade, to the transfer of money from Israel to the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, and no investment.

The Economic Commission’s Dashti said "the level of destruction is unimaginable and unprecedented” in Gaza.

“As of November 3, it is estimated that 35,000 housing units have been totally demolished and about 220,000 units are partially damaged,” she said. The report said at least 45% of Gaza’s housing units have been destroyed or damaged.

If this persists, the majority of Gazans will have no homes and Al Dardari said even if fighting ended now there will be massive long-term displacement, “with all its humanitarian economic development and security consequences.”

Al Dardari said it breaks his heart that the Palestinian territories had become lower middle income economies, “because all of that growth and development is going to regress between 11, 16, or even 19 years if the fighting continues. ... We will go back to 2002.”



Oil Prices Hover Near Two-Week Low; Weak China Data Adds to Demand Concerns 

An offshore oil rig is pictured off the coast of Huntington Beach, California, US, November 14, 2024. (Reuters)
An offshore oil rig is pictured off the coast of Huntington Beach, California, US, November 14, 2024. (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Hover Near Two-Week Low; Weak China Data Adds to Demand Concerns 

An offshore oil rig is pictured off the coast of Huntington Beach, California, US, November 14, 2024. (Reuters)
An offshore oil rig is pictured off the coast of Huntington Beach, California, US, November 14, 2024. (Reuters)

Oil prices ticked up but hovered near a two-week low on Tuesday after weak economic data from China and warming weather forecasts elsewhere soured the demand outlook.

Brent crude oil futures rose by 60 cents, or 0.78%, to $77.68 per barrel by 0730 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 50 cents, or 0.68%, to $73.67. Brent settled on Monday at its lowest since Jan. 9, while WTI hit its lowest since Jan. 2.

China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, reported on Monday an unexpected contraction in manufacturing activity in January, adding to concerns over global crude demand growth.

"The general tone of caution in the risk environment, coupled with weaker Chinese PMI numbers that cast further doubt on China's oil demand outlook, may serve as a drag on oil prices," IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong said.

China's crude oil demand is also expected to be hit by the latest US sanctions on Russian oil trade. FGE analysts see refineries in Shandong losing up to 1 million barrels per day of crude supply in the near term amid a ban imposed by the Shandong Port Group on US-sanctioned tankers.

"Alternative crude barrels (to Russian supply) are being sought after at the same time, but they come at much higher costs," the analysts noted.

Several independent refineries in China have halted operations, or plan to do so, for indefinite maintenance periods, sources told Reuters, as new Chinese tariff and tax policies plunge plants deeper into losses.

India, the world's third-largest crude importer, also faces disruptions to Russian oil supply, but refiners there are taking advantage of a wind-down period in the sanctions to make purchases until March, the FGE analysts said.

In the US, weather forecasts are for warmer-than-normal temperatures through this week, which is weighing on demand for heating fuels after extreme cold sparked a natural gas and diesel rally in prior sessions.

"Temperatures in both regions (US and Europe) are increasing, allowing for heating fuel demand to slide off some," StoneX oil analyst Alex Hodes said on Monday.

Broader financial markets were under pressure from a surge of interest in a low-cost artificial intelligence model launched by Chinese firm DeepSeek.

"Losses (in the oil market) appear relatively limited from the turmoil in US tech stocks," IG's Yeap said.

Still, caution is likely to persist as the Feb. 1 deadline for US tariffs approaches, with any potential trade restrictions likely to introduce downside risks to global growth, which could translate to downward pressure on oil, Yeap added.