S&P Warns of Longterm Shortage in Egypt's Gas Supply

The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)
The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)
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S&P Warns of Longterm Shortage in Egypt's Gas Supply

The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)
The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)

Standard & Poor's warned that the escalation of Israel's war in Gaza may leave Egypt facing a long-term shortage in gas supplies.

In a report seen by Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday, the agency said that "the war will largely be contained to Israel and Gaza and last no more than three to six months."

However, further escalation, also spreading beyond Israel's borders, could involve damage to pipelines or obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

"We believe if that were to happen, Israel's gas exports could stop completely. And we don't think many producers in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could fill that gap since most of their gas production is already under contract," read the report.

"We assume the war will remain centered in Gaza and have a low impact on Israel's neighbors, but if it spreads to important delivery channels, Egypt – which is already rationing gas – might struggle in the medium term, in our view."

Standard & Poor's indicated that this situation could eventually "hurt credit quality in the region if it escalates further."

In its latest report on Egypt on Oct. 20, the agency lowered its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Egypt to "B-" from "B." The outlook is stable. We also affirmed our short-term sovereign credit ratings at "B."

It has also announced that it was lowering Israel's credit outlook from stable to negative. The credit rating itself remains unchanged at AA-.

Since the start of the war, Israel has shut down the Tamar gas platform, which produces about 10 billion cubic meters of gas, about 85 percent of which is used for the Israeli domestic market, and about 15 percent of the remaining is exported to Jordan to generate electricity, and Egypt to liquefy and export to Europe.

Since 2020, Israel has provided almost all of Jordan's natural gas supply and 5 percent to 10 percent of Egypt's, according to S&P Commodity Insights data.

"Yet we believe Egypt's gas supply is more exposed than Jordan's because Jordan has an unused LNG plant and an offtake agreement with Israel," said the report.

Gas production in Israel is down almost 50 percent due to the repercussions of the war.

Israel produced about 22 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in 2022, about one percent of the global total.

It exported a combined nine bcm to Egypt and Jordan, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. Most of Israel's gas production comes from offshore fields in the Mediterranean Sea.

Since 2019, Egypt has achieved self-sufficiency in gas production to meet domestic demand, and about 60-65 percent of it is consumed as fuel for power generation, and 20-25 percent goes for industrial use.

Egypt imported about six billion cubic meters of gas in 2022 from Israel, converting some of it into liquefied natural gas and then exporting it to Europe.

It contributes less than five percent of Europe's natural gas needs.

Europe imports most of the LNG it needs from the US and Qatar. The EU has also exceeded its 95 percent target inventory level and, barring an unusually cold winter, has sufficient gas supply without LNG from Egypt.

However, even before the recent escalation in Israel, increased demand for energy led to blackouts in Egypt. It came amid lower gas production in Egypt and a greater need for gas to fuel cooling units during this year's unseasonably hot summer.



Saudi's flynas Strikes Deal for Additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s

Saudi's flynas strikes deal for additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s (flynas)
Saudi's flynas strikes deal for additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s (flynas)
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Saudi's flynas Strikes Deal for Additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s

Saudi's flynas strikes deal for additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s (flynas)
Saudi's flynas strikes deal for additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s (flynas)

flynas, Saudi Arabia’s leading low-cost carrier, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Airbus for 75 A320neo family aircraft and 15 A330-900. This strategic agreement will expand the airline's capacity, range and enhance its overall fleet capabilities.
Signed during Farnborough International Airshow in the presence of President of the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) of Saudi Arabia, Abdulaziz bin Abdullah Al-Duailej, Chairman of the Board of NAS Holding Ayed Al Jeaid, flynas Chief Executive Officer & Managing Director Bandar Almohanna, and Airbus Chief Executive Officer, Commercial Aircraft, Christian Scherer, Airbus said on its website.
The new aircraft will join the carrier’s all Airbus fleet serving international, domestic and regional routes. The new A330-900 aircraft will boast a two-class configuration, accommodating up to 400 passengers.
"We are excited to further strengthen our long-standing partnership with Airbus," said Bander Almohanna, CEO and Managing Director of flynas. "The A320neo Family provides exceptional operational performance and environmental benefits, allowing us to offer unique, low-cost travel experiences. Additionally, the A330neowill enhance our long-haul capabilities with its advanced technology and efficiency while supporting our growth plans and Saudi Arabia’s pilgrim program."
Airbus Chief Executive Officer, Commercial Aircraft, Christian Scherer said, "We are delighted to expand our partnership with flynas through this significant milestone for both A320neo and A330-900 aircraft. The A330neo will allow flynas to further grow into widebody markets by building on the A320, benefiting from Airbus’ unique commonality. Both aircraft types offer flynas the perfect versatility and economics to expand into new markets while offering their passengers the latest cabin experience and comfort. We look forward to continuing our successful collaboration with flynas as they embark on this exciting new chapter."
The addition of the A330-900 aircraft will support flynas' ambitious growth plans. The airline anticipates significant operational efficiency gains by combining the new widebody aircraft with its existing A320neo fleet. The A330-900 offers increased capacity and range at unrivaled seat costs, ensuring flynas can compete effectively in the growing regional market, a key focus area for the airline.
The A330neo delivers unbeatable operating economics, powered by the latest-generation Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engines, featuring new wings and a range of aerodynamic innovations resulting in a 25 percent reduction in fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions compared to previous generation competitor aircraft. The A330neo is capable of flying 8,150 nm / 15,094 km non-stop, providing ultimate comfort with more passenger space, a new lighting system, latest in-flight entertainment systems and full connectivity throughout the cabin.
As with all Airbus aircraft, the A330 family is already able to operate with up to 50% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The manufacturer is targeting to have its aircraft up to 100% SAF capable by 2030.