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S&P Warns of Longterm Shortage in Egypt's Gas Supply

The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)
The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)
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S&P Warns of Longterm Shortage in Egypt's Gas Supply

The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)
The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)

Standard & Poor's warned that the escalation of Israel's war in Gaza may leave Egypt facing a long-term shortage in gas supplies.

In a report seen by Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday, the agency said that "the war will largely be contained to Israel and Gaza and last no more than three to six months."

However, further escalation, also spreading beyond Israel's borders, could involve damage to pipelines or obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

"We believe if that were to happen, Israel's gas exports could stop completely. And we don't think many producers in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could fill that gap since most of their gas production is already under contract," read the report.

"We assume the war will remain centered in Gaza and have a low impact on Israel's neighbors, but if it spreads to important delivery channels, Egypt – which is already rationing gas – might struggle in the medium term, in our view."

Standard & Poor's indicated that this situation could eventually "hurt credit quality in the region if it escalates further."

In its latest report on Egypt on Oct. 20, the agency lowered its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Egypt to "B-" from "B." The outlook is stable. We also affirmed our short-term sovereign credit ratings at "B."

It has also announced that it was lowering Israel's credit outlook from stable to negative. The credit rating itself remains unchanged at AA-.

Since the start of the war, Israel has shut down the Tamar gas platform, which produces about 10 billion cubic meters of gas, about 85 percent of which is used for the Israeli domestic market, and about 15 percent of the remaining is exported to Jordan to generate electricity, and Egypt to liquefy and export to Europe.

Since 2020, Israel has provided almost all of Jordan's natural gas supply and 5 percent to 10 percent of Egypt's, according to S&P Commodity Insights data.

"Yet we believe Egypt's gas supply is more exposed than Jordan's because Jordan has an unused LNG plant and an offtake agreement with Israel," said the report.

Gas production in Israel is down almost 50 percent due to the repercussions of the war.

Israel produced about 22 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in 2022, about one percent of the global total.

It exported a combined nine bcm to Egypt and Jordan, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. Most of Israel's gas production comes from offshore fields in the Mediterranean Sea.

Since 2019, Egypt has achieved self-sufficiency in gas production to meet domestic demand, and about 60-65 percent of it is consumed as fuel for power generation, and 20-25 percent goes for industrial use.

Egypt imported about six billion cubic meters of gas in 2022 from Israel, converting some of it into liquefied natural gas and then exporting it to Europe.

It contributes less than five percent of Europe's natural gas needs.

Europe imports most of the LNG it needs from the US and Qatar. The EU has also exceeded its 95 percent target inventory level and, barring an unusually cold winter, has sufficient gas supply without LNG from Egypt.

However, even before the recent escalation in Israel, increased demand for energy led to blackouts in Egypt. It came amid lower gas production in Egypt and a greater need for gas to fuel cooling units during this year's unseasonably hot summer.

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World Bank: 27 Countries Seeking to Ensure Access to Crisis Funds

The war and ⁠resulting disruption of global ⁠energy markets have hit global supply chains and prevented vital fertilizer shipments from reaching developing countries (Reuters)
The war and ⁠resulting disruption of global ⁠energy markets have hit global supply chains and prevented vital fertilizer shipments from reaching developing countries (Reuters)
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World Bank: 27 Countries Seeking to Ensure Access to Crisis Funds

The war and ⁠resulting disruption of global ⁠energy markets have hit global supply chains and prevented vital fertilizer shipments from reaching developing countries (Reuters)
The war and ⁠resulting disruption of global ⁠energy markets have hit global supply chains and prevented vital fertilizer shipments from reaching developing countries (Reuters)

Twenty-seven countries have moved since the Iran war started to put in place crisis instruments that could quickly access funding from existing World Bank programs, according to an internal document viewed by Reuters.

The World Bank document did not name the countries or the total amount of funds potentially being sought. The World Bank declined to comment.

The document showed that three countries had approved new instruments since the Middle East conflict began on February 28 while the others were still completing the process.

The war and ⁠resulting disruption of global ⁠energy markets have hit global supply chains and prevented vital fertilizer shipments from reaching developing countries.

Officials in Kenya and Iraq have confirmed they are seeking rapid financial support from the World Bank to deal with the war's fallout such as surging fuel prices hitting the African nation to a massive drop in oil revenue for Iraq.

The 27 countries ⁠are among 101 that had access to some form of pre-arranged financing instrument that they could tap in a crisis, including 54 that signed up to the Rapid Response Option, which allows countries to use up to 10% of their undisbursed financing.

World Bank President Ajay Banga last month said the bank's crisis toolkit would allow countries to draw on pre-arranged contingent financing, existing project balances and fast-disbursing instruments to access an estimated $20 billion to $25 billion.

He said the bank could also reorient parts of its portfolio to bring the total to $60 billion over six months, ⁠with further longer-term ⁠changes possible to bring the total to around $100 billion.

At the time, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, said she expected up to a dozen countries to seek $20 billion to $50 billion in near-term assistance from the global lender. But few requests have been logged, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

"Countries are definitely in wait-and-see mode," said one of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Kevin Gallagher, director of the Global Development Policy Center at Boston University, said countries were more willing to seek World Bank funds than negotiate with the IMF because IMF programs generally require austerity measures that could compound the social unrest already seen in countries like Kenya.

Business

IMF: EU Must Reform, Consolidate, Use Joint Debt to Cope with Spending Needs

Poppy flowers stand on a field not far from the European Central Bank, centre, in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, May 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)
Poppy flowers stand on a field not far from the European Central Bank, centre, in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, May 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)
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IMF: EU Must Reform, Consolidate, Use Joint Debt to Cope with Spending Needs

Poppy flowers stand on a field not far from the European Central Bank, centre, in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, May 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)
Poppy flowers stand on a field not far from the European Central Bank, centre, in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, May 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

European Union countries will face large bills for defense, energy and pensions in the next 15 years, the International Monetary Fund told EU finance ministers on Saturday, suggesting a mix of reforms, consolidation and joint borrowing as a way to manage that.

"If left unchecked, public debt will be on an unsustainable path. Under unchanged policy, debt of the average European country would reach 130 percent of GDP by 2040 — roughly doubling from today," the IMF said in a paper used as a ⁠basis for the ministers' ⁠discussions at an informal meeting in Nicosia.

The paper said that to prevent such a scenario, EU countries must improve incentives for citizens to move around the 27-nation bloc to find work and for companies to hire them.

The EU should also integrate its energy markets, make it easier for citizens' savings to flow across the bloc into profitable investments and unify ⁠laws that now often differ from country to country.

Pension reforms and a higher retirement age would also help, as would government guarantees for riskier investments in low-carbon and climate-resilient projects that would help attract private capital to them.

Finally, governments should agree that innovation, energy and defense are European public goods and they should be paid for through joint borrowing.

Joint debt is a highly controversial issue in the EU, where some countries like Spain, Italy or France are in favor, but others, like Germany and several northern European countries, strongly oppose the idea.

"This is one of those areas where ⁠there are differences ⁠of opinion, but it's certainly one of the areas which we will be discussing in the coming months," the chairman of euro zone finance ministers Kyriakos Pierrakakis told Reuters.

The IMF said that even with reforms, most EU countries would still need fiscal consolidation to put debt on a declining path, though the more ambitious the reforms, the less consolidation would be needed.

It said that if governments did not act now, the problem would only get worse.

"The 'muddling-through' approach that many countries have adopted so far is reaching its limits, and a more strategic response seems essential to respond to rising spending pressures," the IMF said.

"Making changes in a piecemeal way, or tinkering at the margins, is likely to be inadequate," it said.

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Mexico, EU Sign Stalled Trade Deal as they Aim to Diversify from US

22 May 2026, Mexico, Mexico City: EU Council President Antonio Costa, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum and EU Comission President Ursula von der Leyen are pictured holding the trade agreement at the presidential palace. Photo: Felix Marquez/dpa
22 May 2026, Mexico, Mexico City: EU Council President Antonio Costa, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum and EU Comission President Ursula von der Leyen are pictured holding the trade agreement at the presidential palace. Photo: Felix Marquez/dpa
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Mexico, EU Sign Stalled Trade Deal as they Aim to Diversify from US

22 May 2026, Mexico, Mexico City: EU Council President Antonio Costa, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum and EU Comission President Ursula von der Leyen are pictured holding the trade agreement at the presidential palace. Photo: Felix Marquez/dpa
22 May 2026, Mexico, Mexico City: EU Council President Antonio Costa, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum and EU Comission President Ursula von der Leyen are pictured holding the trade agreement at the presidential palace. Photo: Felix Marquez/dpa

Mexico and the European Union signed a long-stalled free trade agreement on Friday as they seek to decrease dependence on the US and partially insulate themselves from US President Donald Trump's tariffs.

The accord, which they reached broad agreement on in 2025 but have delayed signing, expands a Mexico-EU trade accord from 2000, which covered only industrial goods. The new pact adds services, government procurement, digital trade, investment and farm produce.

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa signed the deal in Mexico City in their first summit in ⁠over a decade.

"This ⁠agreement is a true geopolitical statement," Costa said on Friday, shortly after signing the agreement. "With the modernized global agreement, we are better prepared to face the challenges of our time."

"This agreement opens up enormous opportunities for both regions, allowing for expanded trade," Sheinbaum said, highlighting the pharmaceutical industry, agriculture, technological development and electric mobility.

Both sides want to diversify their exports away from the US.

The EU was hit with sweeping new duties in Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025 and ⁠prepared countermeasures, though these were paused as both sides sought talks. While tensions eased somewhat with a tariff truce and a July deal, US tariffs on EU exports remain elevated.

Mexico has also been hit with stiff US tariffs on automotive, steel and aluminum exports, and trade relations between the two countries have been volatile throughout Trump's second term.

According to Reuters, Mexico's economy ministry estimates the new agreement could increase Mexican exports to the EU from around $24 billion a year to $36 billion by 2030. The EU exports around $65 billion in goods annually to Mexico.

Trade between Mexico and the EU has increased 75% in a decade, dominated by transport equipment, machinery, chemicals, fuels and mining products.

The new deal provides duty-free access for almost all goods including farm products such ⁠as Mexican chicken and ⁠asparagus and European milk powder, cheese and pork, albeit with some quotas.

While the updated trade deal has been ready, it has taken over a year to sign.

The EU prioritized a free-trade agreement with the South American bloc Mercosur and it concluded free-trade negotiations with Indonesia, India and Australia in the past eight months.

Mexico, meanwhile, has been cautious about taking steps that could anger the Trump administration during sensitive negotiations to extend the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact. More than 80% of Mexico's exports currently go to the US.

In the EU, the trade deal will be voted on by the European Parliament, which is likely to approve it within a few months.

"The goal here is very simple: we want to create more jobs and more value on both sides of the Atlantic," von der Leyen said. "This agreement gives us great wings to fly very high."