Gold Gains as Softer US Dollar, Yields Lift Demand

An undated handout picture released by the Royal Mint, received in London on November 15, 2023 shows the reverse of gold and silver bullion James Bond-themed coins unveiled to celebrate six decades of 007. (Photo by Royal Mint / AFP)
An undated handout picture released by the Royal Mint, received in London on November 15, 2023 shows the reverse of gold and silver bullion James Bond-themed coins unveiled to celebrate six decades of 007. (Photo by Royal Mint / AFP)
TT

Gold Gains as Softer US Dollar, Yields Lift Demand

An undated handout picture released by the Royal Mint, received in London on November 15, 2023 shows the reverse of gold and silver bullion James Bond-themed coins unveiled to celebrate six decades of 007. (Photo by Royal Mint / AFP)
An undated handout picture released by the Royal Mint, received in London on November 15, 2023 shows the reverse of gold and silver bullion James Bond-themed coins unveiled to celebrate six decades of 007. (Photo by Royal Mint / AFP)

Gold prices rose on Thursday, hovering close to a key $2,000 per ounce level, as a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields buoyed demand for bullion.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,995.39 per ounce, as of 0549 GMT, after hitting a three-week high of $2,007.29 on Tuesday, Reuters reported.
US gold futures gained 0.2% to $1,996.40.

"The anticipation of this effective pivot towards interest rate hike cycle peak is translating to ongoing softness in the US dollar and the longer-dated US yield which will support gold prices, at least in the short term," said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA.

The dollar was down 0.2% against its rivals after gains in the previous two sessions, making gold less expensive for other currency holders.

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields fell to a two-month low on Wednesday.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, but that likely does not change the view that the labor market is slowing amid higher interest rates.

Traders widely expect the US Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged in December, but dialed back expectations of rate cuts in 2024 after the jobless claims data, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Fed officials agreed at their last policy meeting that they would proceed "carefully" and only raise interest rates if progress in controlling inflation faltered, the minutes of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 gathering showed on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, US consumers' inflation expectations rose for a second straight month in November, a survey released Wednesday showed.

Spot gold may revisit its Nov. 21 high of $2,007.29 per ounce, as it may have completed a correction from this level, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Spot silver rose 0.3% to $23.68 per ounce, platinum climbed 0.3% to $924.69 and palladium was 0.1% higher at $1,058.60.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
TT

OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.