World Economy Will Slow Next Year Because of Inflation, High Rates and War, OECD Says 

Tourists browse inside a souvenir shop at the Nanluoguxiang tourism area in Beijing, China, 25 November 2023. (EPA)
Tourists browse inside a souvenir shop at the Nanluoguxiang tourism area in Beijing, China, 25 November 2023. (EPA)
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World Economy Will Slow Next Year Because of Inflation, High Rates and War, OECD Says 

Tourists browse inside a souvenir shop at the Nanluoguxiang tourism area in Beijing, China, 25 November 2023. (EPA)
Tourists browse inside a souvenir shop at the Nanluoguxiang tourism area in Beijing, China, 25 November 2023. (EPA)

The global economy, which has proved surprisingly resilient this year, is expected to falter next year under the strain of wars, still-elevated inflation and continued high interest rates.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated Wednesday that international growth would slow to 2.7% in 2024 from an expected 2.9% pace this year. That would amount to the slowest calendar-year growth since the pandemic year of 2020.

A key factor is that the OECD expects the world's two biggest economies, the United States and China, to decelerate next year. The US economy is forecast to expand just 1.5% in 2024, from 2.4% in 2023, as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases — 11 of them since March 2022 — continue to restrain growth.

The Fed's higher rates have made borrowing far more expensive for consumers and businesses and, in the process, have helped slow inflation from its four-decade peak in 2022. The OECD foresees US inflation dropping from 3.9% this year to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, just above the Fed’s 2% target level.

The Chinese economy, beset by a destructive real estate crisis, rising unemployment and slowing exports, is expected to expand 4.7% in 2024, down from 5.2% this year. China’s “consumption growth will likely remain subdued due to increased precautionary savings, gloomier prospects for employment creation and heightened uncertainty,” the OECD said.

Also likely to contribute to a global slowdown are the 20 countries that share the euro currency. They have been hurt by heightened interest rates and by the jump in energy prices that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The OECD expects the collective growth of the eurozone to amount to 0.9% next year — weak but still an improvement over a predicted 0.6% growth in 2023.

The world economy has endured one shock after another since early 2020 — the eruption of COVID-19, a resurgence of inflation as the rebound from the pandemic showed unexpected strength, Moscow's war against Ukraine and painfully high borrowing rates as central banks acted aggressively to combat the acceleration of consumer prices.

Yet through it all, economic expansion has proved unexpectedly sturdy. A year ago, the OECD had predicted global growth of 2.2% for 2023. That forecast proved too pessimistic. Now, the organization warns, the respite may be over.

“Growth has been stronger than expected so far in 2023,” the OECD said in its 221-page report, “but is now moderating as the impact of tighter financial conditions, weak trade growth and lower business and consumer confidence is increasingly felt.”

Moreover, the OECD warned, the world economy is confronting new risks resulting from heightened geopolitical tensions amid the Israel-Hamas war — “particularly if the conflict were to broaden.”

“This could result in significant disruptions to energy markets and major trade routes,” it said.



IMF Appoints First Mission Chief to Syria in 14 Years

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) police officer directs delegates as people arrive to the building during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Tuesday, April 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) police officer directs delegates as people arrive to the building during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Tuesday, April 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
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IMF Appoints First Mission Chief to Syria in 14 Years

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) police officer directs delegates as people arrive to the building during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Tuesday, April 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) police officer directs delegates as people arrive to the building during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Tuesday, April 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

The International Monetary Fund has appointed Ron van Rooden as head of its mission to Syria, Syria's Finance Minister Mohammed Yosr Bernieh said in a written statement, making him the first country mission chief since war erupted there 14 years ago.
Bernieh said van Rooden's appointment came "following our request" and he shared a post on LinkedIn, showing himself shaking hands with van Rooden while attending the annual IMF-World Bank Spring meetings in Washington, D.C.
"This important appointment marks an important step and paves the way for constructive dialogue between the IMF and Syria, with the shared objective of advancing Syria's economic recovery and improving the well-being of the Syrian people," Bernieh wrote, according to Reuters.
The IMF press office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A source familiar with the IMF's decisions on Syria confirmed van Rooden's appointment.
According to the IMF's website, Syria has had no transactions with the fund in the last 40 years. The last IMF mission trip to Syria was in late 2009, more than a year before protests against then-leader Bashar al-Assad erupted.
Assad's crackdown triggered a full-scale war that left much of the country destroyed before he was ousted in a lightning offensive by the opposition last December.
The new leaders have been keen to re-establish Syria's ties regionally and internationally, rebuild the country and secure the lifting of tough US sanctions to kickstart its economy.
Bernieh and Syria's central bank chief Abdelkader Husrieh are attending the annual spring meetings in Washington, the first time a high-level Syrian government team attends the meetings in at least two decades, and the first official visit by Syria's new authorities to the US since Assad's fall.
On Tuesday, the Saudi finance minister and the World Bank co-hosted a roundtable on Syria. Bernieh, in a separate LinkedIn post, described the roundtable as "very successful" and said there was "unprecedented" interest in supporting Syria's reconstruction.
A top official from the United Nations Development Program told Reuters last week the agency is planning to deliver $1.3 billion in support to Syria over the next three years.