World Economy Will Slow Next Year Because of Inflation, High Rates and War, OECD Says 

Tourists browse inside a souvenir shop at the Nanluoguxiang tourism area in Beijing, China, 25 November 2023. (EPA)
Tourists browse inside a souvenir shop at the Nanluoguxiang tourism area in Beijing, China, 25 November 2023. (EPA)
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World Economy Will Slow Next Year Because of Inflation, High Rates and War, OECD Says 

Tourists browse inside a souvenir shop at the Nanluoguxiang tourism area in Beijing, China, 25 November 2023. (EPA)
Tourists browse inside a souvenir shop at the Nanluoguxiang tourism area in Beijing, China, 25 November 2023. (EPA)

The global economy, which has proved surprisingly resilient this year, is expected to falter next year under the strain of wars, still-elevated inflation and continued high interest rates.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated Wednesday that international growth would slow to 2.7% in 2024 from an expected 2.9% pace this year. That would amount to the slowest calendar-year growth since the pandemic year of 2020.

A key factor is that the OECD expects the world's two biggest economies, the United States and China, to decelerate next year. The US economy is forecast to expand just 1.5% in 2024, from 2.4% in 2023, as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases — 11 of them since March 2022 — continue to restrain growth.

The Fed's higher rates have made borrowing far more expensive for consumers and businesses and, in the process, have helped slow inflation from its four-decade peak in 2022. The OECD foresees US inflation dropping from 3.9% this year to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, just above the Fed’s 2% target level.

The Chinese economy, beset by a destructive real estate crisis, rising unemployment and slowing exports, is expected to expand 4.7% in 2024, down from 5.2% this year. China’s “consumption growth will likely remain subdued due to increased precautionary savings, gloomier prospects for employment creation and heightened uncertainty,” the OECD said.

Also likely to contribute to a global slowdown are the 20 countries that share the euro currency. They have been hurt by heightened interest rates and by the jump in energy prices that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The OECD expects the collective growth of the eurozone to amount to 0.9% next year — weak but still an improvement over a predicted 0.6% growth in 2023.

The world economy has endured one shock after another since early 2020 — the eruption of COVID-19, a resurgence of inflation as the rebound from the pandemic showed unexpected strength, Moscow's war against Ukraine and painfully high borrowing rates as central banks acted aggressively to combat the acceleration of consumer prices.

Yet through it all, economic expansion has proved unexpectedly sturdy. A year ago, the OECD had predicted global growth of 2.2% for 2023. That forecast proved too pessimistic. Now, the organization warns, the respite may be over.

“Growth has been stronger than expected so far in 2023,” the OECD said in its 221-page report, “but is now moderating as the impact of tighter financial conditions, weak trade growth and lower business and consumer confidence is increasingly felt.”

Moreover, the OECD warned, the world economy is confronting new risks resulting from heightened geopolitical tensions amid the Israel-Hamas war — “particularly if the conflict were to broaden.”

“This could result in significant disruptions to energy markets and major trade routes,” it said.



Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

 A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
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Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

 A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)

Severe wildfire seasons are increasingly hurting western Canada's lucrative tourism industry, with some visitors beginning to avoid the busy late-summer months due to concerns about uncontrolled blazes, smoke-filled skies and road closures.

After a scorching start to July, nearly 600 wildfires are now ablaze across British Columbia and Alberta, including a huge fire that this week devastated the picturesque tourist town of Jasper in the Canadian Rockies.

Dozens of communities, including popular holiday spots in British Columbia's Kootenay region, are under evacuation orders and several highways are closed.

This year's surge in wildfire activity comes after Canada endured its worst-ever year for wildfires in 2023, when more than 15 million hectares (37 million acres) burned, including parts of the city of West Kelowna in the heart of British Columbia's wine region.

Ellen Walker-Matthews, head of the Thompson Okanagan Tourism Association, said the industry was seeing a lot more last-minute travel decisions instead of booking in advance.

"It's a huge blow. July and August are traditionally the busiest months in the region," said Walker-Matthews, adding that while her region has been relatively unscathed by wildfires this summer, some visitors are choosing to avoid interior British Columbia altogether.

The members of the British Columbia Lodging and Campgrounds Association are reporting a 5-15% drop in bookings from a year ago, with the biggest declines coming from the hotter Okanagan and Cariboo regions, said Joss Penny, who heads the association.

"The concern is that this is something we have to live with and we have it every year now," said Penny.

Although wildfires in Canada's forests are natural and common, scientists say drier, hotter conditions fueled by climate change are leading to more volatile and frequent blazes.

'SMOKEY SKIES'

Some events, like the Salmon Arm Roots and Blues Festival, usually held in August, have now been rescheduled to earlier in the summer to avoid what is now seen as peak smoke season. The festival, which was cancelled last year due to nearby wildfires, was this year moved to July to benefit from "less smokey skies."

Wildfires and extreme climatic events are prompting tourists to "change their plans not just temporarily, but permanently," said Elizabeth Halpenny, a tourism researcher and professor at the University of Alberta, noting that seasonal workers in the sector are often the hardest hit as they have few protections during a bad season or amid a cataclysmic fire.

Tourism contributed C$7.2 billion to the British Columbia economy in 2022, and C$9.9 billion to Alberta in 2023, according to the latest government data.

Jasper National Park is one of Canada's premier tourist destinations, with more than 2 million visitors a year flocking to see its pristine mountain landscapes and abundant wildlife, including grizzly bears, moose and elk.

Kelly Torrens, vice-president of product at international tour company Kensington Tours, described western Canada as a bucket-list destination. But the company now has 49 trips that were supposed to pass through Jasper this season in limbo. Six others were forced to evacuate the park when the fire hit.

Parks Canada has cancelled all camping reservations within Jasper National Park until Aug. 6 and with potentially 50% of the town's structures destroyed by fire, the cleanup and rebuild could take years.

Halpenny is among those hedging their bets.

"I've booked a campsite stay in the mountain parks but at the same time, I booked a campsite out on the prairie somewhere and that's my backup plan because I don't want to miss out on my vacation with my family."