Gold Prices Sprint to All-time Peak on Fed Rate-cut Bets

(FILES) Gold bullion bars are pictured after being inspected and polished at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
(FILES) Gold bullion bars are pictured after being inspected and polished at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
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Gold Prices Sprint to All-time Peak on Fed Rate-cut Bets

(FILES) Gold bullion bars are pictured after being inspected and polished at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
(FILES) Gold bullion bars are pictured after being inspected and polished at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)

Gold prices hit all-time highs above $2,100 per ounce on Monday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks elevated traders' confidence that the US central bank could cut interest rates early next year.

Spot gold was up 0.6% at $2,083.81 per ounce by 0627 GMT, after surging to an all-time high of $2,111.39 earlier.

US gold futures rose 0.7% to $2,103.30.

"After his (Powell) speech, traders were more convinced that we're currently at the peak of the US interest rates and therefore, the path forward from here is more likely to be down rather than up," said KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer.

Powell on Friday said "the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced", but the Fed is not thinking about lowering rates right now.
Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing bullion.

Traders are now pricing in a 70% chance for a Fed rate cut by next March, CME's FedWatch Tool showed, according to Reuters.

Backing market sentiment, data last week pointed out to cooling inflationary pressures, a gradually easing labor market, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagging a possible rate cut if inflation continues to decline.

"Technically, momentum is still looking strong after prices broke the resistance of $2,050/oz. Investors have been adding fresh long to position both against rising geopolitical tensions and rising prospects of Fed rate cuts," ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari said.

"Long positions have reached the highest since May 2022, still positionings are not crowded. This suggest there will be further move up this week, if news flows remain supportive."



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.