Türkiye's Inflation Ticks up to 62%

A woman shops at a street market in Istanbul, Türkiye, 04 December 2023. (EPA)
A woman shops at a street market in Istanbul, Türkiye, 04 December 2023. (EPA)
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Türkiye's Inflation Ticks up to 62%

A woman shops at a street market in Istanbul, Türkiye, 04 December 2023. (EPA)
A woman shops at a street market in Istanbul, Türkiye, 04 December 2023. (EPA)

Türkiye's annual inflation rate ticked up slightly in November, the state statistics agency said on Monday, showing further signs of levelling off following a series of sharp interest rate hikes.

The rate moved to 61.98 percent last month from 61.36 percent in October, the TUIK state statistics agency said.

The pace at which consumer prices are rising has started to ease, after six successive months of interest rate hikes took borrowing cost to 40 percent from 8.5 percent.

Analysts are penciling in a final rate hike of 2.5 percentage points at the central bank's next policy meeting on December 21.

The latest batch of data show higher borrowing costs starting to slow down consumption -- a key goal of the central bank.

Türkiye's gross domestic product rose by just 0.3 percent between July and September. It had risen by 3.3 between April and June.

"The central bank will welcome these figures as evidence that demand is cooling and inflation pressures continue to soften," said analyst Liam Peach of Capital Economics.

Reset will take time

"However, bringing inflation down to much lower levels will require monetary policy to remain tight for a prolonged period and we expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged throughout 2024," Peach said.

Signs of Türkiye's economy starting to emerge from crisis are starting to be noticed by foreign investors, who had pulled out of the market because of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's unpredictable past policies.

Analysts blame Erdogan for setting off the inflation spiral by forcing the nominally independent central bank to slash borrowing costs far below the rate at which prices were rising.

The official annual inflation rate peaked at 85.51 percent in October 2022.

Standard and Poor's revised Türkiye's long-term sovereign credit rating to positive from stable last month.

"Inflation appears to have peaked, albeit at elevated levels of over 60 percent," the ratings agency said.

But it also warned: "The policy reset will take at least two years to tame inflation."

Türkiye's central bank expects inflation to peak in May of next year at between 70 and 75 percent.



Saudi Transport, Logistics Sector Set for 10% Growth in Q2

An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
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Saudi Transport, Logistics Sector Set for 10% Growth in Q2

An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)

As Saudi companies start reporting their Q2 financial results, experts are optimistic about the transport and logistics sector. They expect a 10% annual growth, with total net profits reaching around SAR 900 million ($240 million), driven by tourism and an economic corridor project.

In Q1, the seven listed transport and logistics companies in Saudi Arabia showed positive results, with combined profits increasing by 5.8% to SAR 818.7 million ($218 million) compared to the previous year.

Four companies reported profit growth, while three saw declines, including two with losses, according to Arbah Capital.

Al Rajhi Capital projects significant gains for Q2 compared to last year: Lumi Rental’s profits are expected to rise by 31% to SAR 65 million, SAL’s by 76% to SAR 192 million, and Theeb’s by 23% to SAR 37 million.

On the other hand, Aljazira Capital predicts a 13% decrease in Lumi Rental’s net profit to SAR 43 million, despite a 44% rise in revenue. This is due to higher operational costs post-IPO.

SAL’s annual profit is expected to grow by 76% to SAR 191.6 million, driven by a 29% increase in revenue and higher profit margins.

Aljazira Capital also expects a 2.8% drop in the sector’s net profit from Q1 due to lower profits for SAL and Seera, caused by reduced revenue and profit margins.

Mohammad Al Farraj, Head of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the sector’s continued profit growth is supported by seasonal factors like summer travel and higher demand for transport services.

He predicts Q2 profits will reach around SAR 900 million ($240 million), up 10% from Q1.

Al Farraj highlighted that the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), linking India with the GCC and Europe, is expected to boost sector growth by improving trade and transport connections.

However, he warned that companies may still face challenges, including rising costs and workforce shortages.