Egypt’s Non-Oil Private Sector Contraction Slows Down in November

The contraction of the non-oil private sector in Egypt slows during November, but business confidence declines to the lowest level in 11 and a half years. (Reuters)
The contraction of the non-oil private sector in Egypt slows during November, but business confidence declines to the lowest level in 11 and a half years. (Reuters)
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Egypt’s Non-Oil Private Sector Contraction Slows Down in November

The contraction of the non-oil private sector in Egypt slows during November, but business confidence declines to the lowest level in 11 and a half years. (Reuters)
The contraction of the non-oil private sector in Egypt slows during November, but business confidence declines to the lowest level in 11 and a half years. (Reuters)

The Standard & Poor’s Global Purchasing Managers’ Index showed on Tuesday that the contraction of the non-oil private sector in Egypt slowed in November, but business confidence in the sector fell to its lowest level in 11 and a half years.

The group said in its report that the Purchasing Managers’ Index in Egypt, adjusted in light of seasonal factors, rose to 48.4 points in November from 47.9 points in October, noting that the index was still below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.

The report noted that high inflation rates and a continuing decline in production and new orders led to a drop in business activity expectations over the next 12 months to their weakest levels since data collection began in April 2012. Inflationary pressures also led to a sharp decline in sales to customers, which contributed to decreased hiring and procurement.

According to the report, levels of production and new business continued to decline strongly in November, although the rates of decline slowed from those recorded in October.

According to the companies surveyed, historically high inflation rates continued to reduce customer demand, while some companies indicated that unresolved import issues were restricting business activity.

Although the decline in production and new business was widespread across all sectors studied, it was particularly noticeable among wholesale and retail companies.

As demand rates continue to deteriorate due to inflationary pressures, non-oil producing companies in Egypt recorded the lowest level of confidence in future activity in the history of the series. The data showed that expectations were only slightly positive, while the manufacturing and construction sectors presented pessimistic forecasts.

David Owen, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Optimism in the Egyptian non-oil economy is eroding as we approach the end of the year, as economic challenges arising from the Russia-Ukraine war put additional pressure on costs and capacity at businesses. While the resulting downturns in new business and output were not as severe compared to those seen at the start of the year, they are also showing no signs of letting up, stretching a sequence of decline that goes back to late 2021.”



Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

 A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
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Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

 A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)

Severe wildfire seasons are increasingly hurting western Canada's lucrative tourism industry, with some visitors beginning to avoid the busy late-summer months due to concerns about uncontrolled blazes, smoke-filled skies and road closures.

After a scorching start to July, nearly 600 wildfires are now ablaze across British Columbia and Alberta, including a huge fire that this week devastated the picturesque tourist town of Jasper in the Canadian Rockies.

Dozens of communities, including popular holiday spots in British Columbia's Kootenay region, are under evacuation orders and several highways are closed.

This year's surge in wildfire activity comes after Canada endured its worst-ever year for wildfires in 2023, when more than 15 million hectares (37 million acres) burned, including parts of the city of West Kelowna in the heart of British Columbia's wine region.

Ellen Walker-Matthews, head of the Thompson Okanagan Tourism Association, said the industry was seeing a lot more last-minute travel decisions instead of booking in advance.

"It's a huge blow. July and August are traditionally the busiest months in the region," said Walker-Matthews, adding that while her region has been relatively unscathed by wildfires this summer, some visitors are choosing to avoid interior British Columbia altogether.

The members of the British Columbia Lodging and Campgrounds Association are reporting a 5-15% drop in bookings from a year ago, with the biggest declines coming from the hotter Okanagan and Cariboo regions, said Joss Penny, who heads the association.

"The concern is that this is something we have to live with and we have it every year now," said Penny.

Although wildfires in Canada's forests are natural and common, scientists say drier, hotter conditions fueled by climate change are leading to more volatile and frequent blazes.

'SMOKEY SKIES'

Some events, like the Salmon Arm Roots and Blues Festival, usually held in August, have now been rescheduled to earlier in the summer to avoid what is now seen as peak smoke season. The festival, which was cancelled last year due to nearby wildfires, was this year moved to July to benefit from "less smokey skies."

Wildfires and extreme climatic events are prompting tourists to "change their plans not just temporarily, but permanently," said Elizabeth Halpenny, a tourism researcher and professor at the University of Alberta, noting that seasonal workers in the sector are often the hardest hit as they have few protections during a bad season or amid a cataclysmic fire.

Tourism contributed C$7.2 billion to the British Columbia economy in 2022, and C$9.9 billion to Alberta in 2023, according to the latest government data.

Jasper National Park is one of Canada's premier tourist destinations, with more than 2 million visitors a year flocking to see its pristine mountain landscapes and abundant wildlife, including grizzly bears, moose and elk.

Kelly Torrens, vice-president of product at international tour company Kensington Tours, described western Canada as a bucket-list destination. But the company now has 49 trips that were supposed to pass through Jasper this season in limbo. Six others were forced to evacuate the park when the fire hit.

Parks Canada has cancelled all camping reservations within Jasper National Park until Aug. 6 and with potentially 50% of the town's structures destroyed by fire, the cleanup and rebuild could take years.

Halpenny is among those hedging their bets.

"I've booked a campsite stay in the mountain parks but at the same time, I booked a campsite out on the prairie somewhere and that's my backup plan because I don't want to miss out on my vacation with my family."